A Few Sobering Statistics

[The Maudfather]

I had a little time this morning and, admittedly, I'm still a little upset about Saturday's loss, so I started looking at some stats during Pelini's tenure. The general consensus among husker fans seems to be that the hallmark of the Pelini regime is self destruction when it really matters. During Pelini's tenure, we have played 19 games against ranked opponents (winning 7 of the contests, 58% of the games) and have turned the ball over 38 times, while our opponents have turned the ball over 21 times. So, over the course of 19 ranked games, we average 2 turnovers/game, while our opponents average 1.1/game. Through contests with those 19 ranked foes, Pelini's Huskers have accrued 164 penalties for 1347 yards, averaging 8.6 penalties/game and 70.9 penalty yards/game and have outgained ranked opponents in penalty yards 14 out of 19 times. Ranked opponents have amassed 106 penalties for 950 yards, averaging 5.6 penalties/game for 50 penalty yards/game. So, in games against ranked foes, Pelini's Huskers have averaged 3 more penalites and almost 21 more penalty yards, while turning the ball over almost twice as much. That's no recipe for success.

 

Nextly, I examined every other game during Pelini's tenure (excluding the 2003 Alamo Bowl, when he was interim coach). In the 41 other games that Pelini has coached, we have turned the ball over 71 times (1.73/game), while opponents have turned it over 72 times (1.76/game). So, in games against unranked opponents, we are only +1 in the turnover margin. IMO, that's unacceptable when you consider the unranked teams that we have played over the last 4 1/2 years:

 

2008

Western Michigan, MAC, (9-4)

San Jose State, WAC, (6-6)

New Mexico State, WAC, (3-9)

Iowa State, Big XII, (2-10)

Baylor, Big XII, (4-8)

KU, Big XII, (8-5)

KSU, Big XII, (5-7)

Colorado, Big XII, (5-7)

Clemson, ACC, (7-6)

 

2009

Florida Atlantic, Sun Belt, (5-7)

Arkansas State, Sun Belt, (4-8)

Louisiana Lafayette, Sun Belt, (6-6)

Texas Tech, Big XII, (9-4)

Iowa State, Big XII, (7-6)

Baylor, Big XII, (4-8)

KU, Big XII, (5-7)

KSU, Big XII, (6-6)

Colorado, Big XII, (3-9)

 

2010

Western Kentucky, Sun Belt, (2-10)

Idaho, WAC, (6-7)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

South Dakota State, MVC (FCS), (5-6)

KSU, Big XII, (7-6)

Texas, Big XII, (5-7)

Iowa State, Big XII, (5-7)

KU, Big XII, (3-9)

Colorado, Big XII, (5-7)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

 

2011

Tennessee Chattanooga, Southern (FCS), (5-6)

Fresno St, MWC, (4-9)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

Wyoming, MWC, (8-5)

Ohio State, B1G, (6-7)

Minnesota, B1G, (3-9)

Northwestern, B1G, (6-7)

Iowa, B1G, (7-6)

 

2012

Southern Miss, Conference USA, (0-5)*

UCLA, PAC 12, (4-2)*

Arkansas State, Sun Belt, (3-3)*

Idaho State, Big Sky (FCS), (1-4)*

Wisconsin, B1G, (4-2)*

 

* = records aren't final

• 23/41 of those unranked teams had/have losing records, while the win pct of the entire group is a pedestrian 44% and we are only +1 in the turnover margin. During the entirety of Pelini's tenure (again, excluding the 03 Alamo Bowl), we're -16 in turnovers.
  
• In the 41 games we have played against unranked opponents, NU has accrued 2,401 penalty yards, which averages out to 58.6 penalty yards/game. Conversely, our opponents in the same 41 games accrued 1,844 yards, which averages out to be 45 penalty yards/game.
  
• In the 41 contests against unranked foes, NU has amassed more penalty yards than the opponent 27 times (66% of the time)
  

TOTAL

• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have turned the ball over 109 times (1.82 turnovers/game), while opponents have turned it over 93 times (1.55 turnovers/game)
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers are -16 in turnover margin
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have accrued 3,748 penalty yards, averaging 62.5 penalty yards/game.
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers are +954 in penalty yards
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have amassed more penalty yards than the opponent 41 times(68% of the time)
  

[Blackshirts007]

Yikes, those records show that we are beating the teams that should be beat every year, but lose one team a year we shouldn't and can't win a big game...Bo has not beat a quality opponent yet....however you need to change some things quick, we didn't beat Texas in 2010, or texas tech in 09...and we beat Oklahoma in 09

[tmfr15]

We turn the ball over and commit penalties? This isn't news to me.

[r06ue1]

Here's a scary stat:

 

"In their last 11 games Nebraska is 6-5, with three of those wins coming against non-BCS or FCS opponents."

 

If things don't improve fast, Pelini could be in some serious trouble.

[The Maudfather]

Yikes, those records show that we are beating the teams that should be beat every year, but lose one team a year we shouldn't and can't win a big game...Bo has not beat a quality opponent yet....however you need to change some things quick, we didn't beat Texas in 2010, or texas tech in 09...and we beat Oklahoma in 09

Where do you see that I put we beat Texas, Texas Tech and lost to OU?

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Here's a scary stat:

 

"In their last 11 games Nebraska is 6-5, with three of those wins coming against non-BCS or FCS opponents."

 

If things don't improve fast, Pelini could be in some serious trouble.

It might be a scary stat, but it's not a fair stat....................why because you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say depending on what you sample from. I think the OP's stats are fair because it's over his ENTIRE tenure as the head coach here. I can make the stats say something different over the last 6 games, or last 14 games, or last 2 games. Usually folks try to do this when they are trying to make the stats fit around their point. Not saying you're doing that, but to get a true idea you have to take his entire tenure into factor. It would be interesting to compare his stats to Callahans, to T.O.............granted the stats would be hugely different since T.O. was here so long. Probably more fair to compare it to Callahan's................

[lo country]

Since our embarrassing loss to CU in 2001, we are 58-51 against BCS opponents. NOt just Pelini, for some reason since that fateful day in November we have been truly average at best. Our W-L record has been pumped up by playing non BCS opponents or Div II schools.

[bdubb75]

These stats are why people are making "knee-jerk" decisions about Pelini and if he's the guy to bring Nebraska back to relevance. At this point, I don't think so. We seem to be a 2nd tier team these days just peddling in the middle of the pack. I'm not sure what the issue is as I think we have some good talent but it just feels like we're missing something. It's a hard pill to swallow when we went from winning titles to hoping for a bowl bid.

[The Maudfather]

Here's a scary stat:

 

"In their last 11 games Nebraska is 6-5, with three of those wins coming against non-BCS or FCS opponents."

 

If things don't improve fast, Pelini could be in some serious trouble.

It would be interesting to compare his stats to Callahans

• Through 4 seasons at Nebraska, Callahan's Huskers attained 73 turnovers, while turning the ball over 113 times. Totaling a -40 turnover margin.
  
• Excluding 07, Callahan's Huskers gained 63 turnovers and turned it over 84 times. Totaling -21 in turnover margin
  
• In 07, we turned it over 29 times and got 10 turnovers. We averaged 2.4 turnovers/game and .83 takeaways/game....so far this season, we are averaging 2.5 turnovers/game and 1.5 takeaways/game.
  
• Through 4 seasons at Nebraska, Callahan's Huskers accrued 315 penalties for 2,387 yards. That's 6.4 penalties/game, for 48.7 penalty yards/game. Pelini's teams average 13.8 more penalty yards/game.
  

[The Maudfather]

These stats are why people are making "knee-jerk" decisions about Pelini and if he's the guy to bring Nebraska back to relevance. At this point, I don't think so. We seem to be a 2nd tier team these days just peddling in the middle of the pack. I'm not sure what the issue is as I think we have some good talent but it just feels like we're missing something. It's a hard pill to swallow when we went from winning titles to hoping for a bowl bid.

I think we have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, but on the defensive side, where is the good talent?

[clyde40]

These stats are why people are making "knee-jerk" decisions about Pelini and if he's the guy to bring Nebraska back to relevance. At this point, I don't think so. We seem to be a 2nd tier team these days just peddling in the middle of the pack. I'm not sure what the issue is as I think we have some good talent but it just feels like we're missing something. It's a hard pill to swallow when we went from winning titles to hoping for a bowl bid.

I think we have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, but on the defensive side, where is the good talent?

They are young and don't understand Bo's system yet. Hopefully they get in the game more from here on out.

[The Maudfather]

These stats are why people are making "knee-jerk" decisions about Pelini and if he's the guy to bring Nebraska back to relevance. At this point, I don't think so. We seem to be a 2nd tier team these days just peddling in the middle of the pack. I'm not sure what the issue is as I think we have some good talent but it just feels like we're missing something. It's a hard pill to swallow when we went from winning titles to hoping for a bowl bid.

I think we have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, but on the defensive side, where is the good talent?

They are young and don't understand Bo's system yet. Hopefully they get in the game more from here on out.

Young? Cam Meredith, Baker Steinkuhler, Alonzo Whaley, Will Compton, Courtney Osbourne and PJ Smith are all redshirt seniors....thus, they have been in Pelini's program for 5 years. Additionally, Eric Martin, Joseph Carter and Damion Stafford are all seniors, while Thad Randle, Andrew Green, Jason Ankrah, Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Mo Seisay are all redshirt juniors. On top of those guys, Ciante Evans is a junior and the only underclassman that plays on the defensive side of the ball is Josh Mitchell as a sophomore.

 

So, I guess, to address your point....I'd say 10/11 of these guys don't have much time to learn Bo's system because they are either graduating this year or next year.

[robsker]

Since our embarrassing loss to CU in 2001, we are 58-51 against BCS opponents. NOt just Pelini, for some reason since that fateful day in November we have been truly average at best. Our W-L record has been pumped up by playing non BCS opponents or Div II schools.

Since our embarrassing loss to CU in 2001, we are 58-51 against BCS opponents. NOt just Pelini, for some reason since that fateful day in November we have been truly average at best. Our W-L record has been pumped up by playing non BCS opponents or Div II schools.

 

That is a truly great post. You have placed into perspective what we all need to know --- for a decade now (plus a few years) NU has been barely over .500 against BCS teams --- the fluff games are irrelevant.

 

58-51. That should be enough to mellow those whose expectations are that NU is going to compete at any meaningful level. He have not for years. We are not competing now at a level that makes us legitimate a threat to win anything (MNC, conference... or even conference division title). There is NO. NONE. ZERO objective reason to see NU competing at a level whereby the seroiusly challenge for any title of any sort in the foreseeable future.

 

Temper your expectations and enjoy it whenever we do do well. Otherwise you guys will just elevate your blood pressure needlessly because your expectations for this program are not even remotely realistic. We do not have a top 25 program in football any more. We do not have a top 25 caliber head coach or coaching staff. We probably have fringe top 25 talent. But overall... if NU goes above .500 in conference play... that is about all that can be realistically expected.

[knapplc]

Here's a scary stat:

 

"In their last 11 games Nebraska is 6-5, with three of those wins coming against non-BCS or FCS opponents."

 

It is a scary stat. It's also not true. Our last 11 games (as of 10/8/12, when Sean Callahan wrote that) were against:

 

Ohio State - L

Wisconsin - W

Idaho State- W

UCLA - L

Arkansas State- W

Southern Miss- W

South Carolina- L

Iowa- W

Michigan- L

Penn State- W

Northwestern- L

 

By my count, over our last 11 games, we're 6-5. Only one of those games was against an FCS opponent, and we scored 73 on them. We also won the three games previous to the Northwestern game, making us 9-5 over our last 14 games. I'm confused as to what Sean Callahan was saying there.....?

 

 

 

That doesn't mean that any of the other stats in this thread are wrong, or that we're not in trouble (we are). It just means that this line is inaccurate.

[AFhusker]

Here's a scary stat:

 

"In their last 11 games Nebraska is 6-5, with three of those wins coming against non-BCS or FCS opponents."

 

It is a scary stat. It's also not true. Our last 11 games (as of 10/8/12, when Sean Callahan wrote that) were against:

 

Ohio State - L

Wisconsin - W

Idaho State- W

UCLA - L

Arkansas State- W

Southern Miss- W

South Carolina- L

Iowa- W

Michigan- L

Penn State- W

Northwestern- L

 

By my count, over our last 11 games, we're 6-5. Only one of those games was against an FCS opponent, and we scored 73 on them. We also won the three games previous to the Northwestern game, making us 9-5 over our last 14 games. I'm confused as to what Sean Callahan was saying there.....?

 

 

 

That doesn't mean that any of the other stats in this thread are wrong, or that we're not in trouble (we are). It just means that this line is inaccurate.

 

I think you missed the UCLA loss in your count of the last 11 games. I wish it didn't happen either, but it did. And unless I'm reading it wrong in the OP's original post they stated that Bo has won 7 of thier last 19 against ranked opponents with a 58% winning percentage. That is a .368 or 37% winning percentage when you round up.

 

Ok, how does my quote of your post have UCLA in it, but your original post does not?