Hooked on Huskers Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Huskers: #47. #40 last week. Suffered Wyo vs Texas St my guess. Lack of SOS. http://www.usatoday....arin/2013/team/ Predictor column: NU by 7 points against Illinois (#54) Quote Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. Quote Link to comment
BIG ERN Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Early line was us -10.5 Quote Link to comment
husker_99 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. not necessarily. Quote Link to comment
Hooked on Huskers Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. Line is -13.5 to -19.5 . I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you. Dummy here. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source Quote Link to comment
JTrain Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. Line is -13.5 to -19.5 . I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you. Dummy here. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source Are you referring to betting lines? Those are set by bookmakers in Vegas and offshore. They have no direct correlation with Sagarin or any other rankings. Based on Sagarin's predictor ratings, you are right about the points. But that doesn't effect the betting lines. Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Meh, we're 36 in the Predictor, which is the only thing that truly matters. LOL @ the BCS Quote Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. Line is -13.5 to -19.5 . I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you. Dummy here. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source Are you referring to betting lines? Those are set by bookmakers in Vegas and offshore. They have no direct correlation with Sagarin or any other rankings. Based on Sagarin's predictor ratings, you are right about the points. But that doesn't effect the betting lines. Yeah, JTrain is right about the betting lines. I think we should be about 16 point favorites. Hooked, I was using the difference in their predictor rankings instead of the number he came up with. That was my bad. Quote Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. not necessarily. Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down. Quote Link to comment
Hooked on Huskers Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 Usually Sag Predictor was close (+/- 3 points) to Las Vegas betting lines Quote Link to comment
husker_99 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. not necessarily. Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down. unless all the other teams above you lose and the teams underneath don't win either. then you move up by default. 2 Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The betting lines are set initially by the books and then moved according to market action. However, many gamblers as well as the books themselves use Sagarin's predictor as one source of information, among many others. Quote Link to comment
JTrain Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Line at BookMaker is -10.5 Quote Link to comment
BIG ERN Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 So basically if you believe these rating vs vegas lines ---you would take Illi @ +10.5 Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5. not necessarily. Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down. No. Imagine the teams you played in previous weeks beat opponents ranked ahead of you. Then teams ahead of you have a loss (moving them down potentially) and your SOS goes up (moving you up potentially). Anything that makes your team look better (opponents winning) or teams ahead of your team worse will move your team up. Quote Link to comment
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