A Few Realities to Chew On

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

[deedsker]

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said. Just like running the option, zone read plays when read wrong still have a player with the ball who must be tackled. Sometimes you give to AA on a bad read and the end still can't tackle him and Boom! 5 yards on a bad read.

 

Passing plays have to have two players reading the same coverage and making the catch for them to work. Even then a wide open receiver can still drop the ball or be over thrown. I think this where people have the backlash.

 

If you really want to boil football down to simplicities, would you rather have a 55% chance of even getting anything at all out of a completion or have to have the other team tackle AA every single play? I think this extremism points to the hatred of Beck throwing the ball around the yard, especially when we don't complete any of the passes. Which according to my math with TA, would happen every 11th time we had such a scenario.

[RedDenver]

 

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

 

Aren't there also more things for a defense to get wrong as well?

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said. Just like running the option, zone read plays when read wrong still have a player with the ball who must be tackled. Sometimes you give to AA on a bad read and the end still can't tackle him and Boom! 5 yards on a bad read.

 

Passing plays have to have two players reading the same coverage and making the catch for them to work. Even then a wide open receiver can still drop the ball or be over thrown. I think this where people have the backlash.

 

If you really want to boil football down to simplicities, would you rather have a 55% chance of even getting anything at all out of a completion or have to have the other team tackle AA every single play? I think this extremism points to the hatred of Beck throwing the ball around the yard, especially when we don't complete any of the passes. Which according to my math with TA, would happen every 11th time we had such a scenario.

 

So, are you wanting us to simply run 60 running plays and completely take passing out of the offense? Because this argument comes up every friggen time a pass play doesn't work. When they do work, nobody says anything and everyone's happy. When they don't work, some fans bitch and moan and claim the OC doesn't have a clue and "gets too cute" or "out thinks himself".

[deedsker]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said. Just like running the option, zone read plays when read wrong still have a player with the ball who must be tackled. Sometimes you give to AA on a bad read and the end still can't tackle him and Boom! 5 yards on a bad read.

 

Passing plays have to have two players reading the same coverage and making the catch for them to work. Even then a wide open receiver can still drop the ball or be over thrown. I think this where people have the backlash.

 

If you really want to boil football down to simplicities, would you rather have a 55% chance of even getting anything at all out of a completion or have to have the other team tackle AA every single play? I think this extremism points to the hatred of Beck throwing the ball around the yard, especially when we don't complete any of the passes. Which according to my math with TA, would happen every 11th time we had such a scenario.

So, are you wanting us to simply run 60 running plays and completely take passing out of the offense? Because this argument comes up every friggen time a pass play doesn't work. When they do work, nobody says anything and everyone's happy. When they don't work, some fans bitch and moan and claim the OC doesn't have a clue and "gets too cute" or "out thinks himself".

I am not saying I condone their feelings, but give you some insight into why they might care less about a failed run than a pass. I know we need to pass. I understand why we pass. I am here to help you understand the reaction you hate seeing so much.

[BigRedBuster]

Well, the reaction makes no sense other than a knee jerk reaction to a play that didn't work.

[deedsker]

Well, the reaction makes no sense other than a knee jerk reaction to a play that didn't work.

What is huskerboard without knee jerk reactions?

 

Lol

[BigRedBuster]

 

Well, the reaction makes no sense other than a knee jerk reaction to a play that didn't work.

What is huskerboard without knee jerk reactions?

 

Lol

 

LOL....I guess.

 

It's just amazing when the knee jerk is still happening three days later.

[deedsker]

 

 

 

Well, the reaction makes no sense other than a knee jerk reaction to a play that didn't work.

What is huskerboard without knee jerk reactions?

 

Lol

LOL....I guess.

 

It's just amazing when the knee jerk is still happening three days later.

Somethings are knee jerk for years...

 

Luckily, as a win, this will go away.

[Guy Chamberlin]

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

 

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

 

I didn't say that. Pretty much the opposite. I'm saying in terms of success, failure and turnover, running the ball is essentially as risky as passing the ball. If you think of a forward pass as a handy way of getting the ball past the 7 huge guys lined up to stop every rush, it's much less cute, even bordering on practical. Running plays are preferable in a number of situations, but they fail for the same reason passing plays fail, and perhaps more often than some Husker fans choose to remember.

 

You also bring up the 55% pass completion rate, which some offer as evidence that the passing game doesn't deserve its reps. But if you look at it in terms of actual results, Nebraska is averaging 9 yards a pass play and 7 yards a running play. One could therefore argue we should pass even more. But that would be wrong, too.

 

Guess what I'm saying is.....it's all good.

[deedsker]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

I didn't say that. Pretty much the opposite. I'm saying in terms of success, failure and turnover, running the ball is essentially as risky as passing the ball. If you think of a forward pass as a handy way of getting the ball past the 7 huge guys lined up to stop every rush, it's much less cute, even bordering on practical. Running plays are preferable in a number of situations, but they fail for the same reason passing plays fail, and perhaps more often than some Husker fans choose to remember.

 

You also bring up the 55% pass completion rate, which some offer as evidence that the passing game doesn't deserve its reps. But if you look at it in terms of actual results, Nebraska is averaging 9 yards a pass play and 7 yards a running play. One could therefore argue we should pass even more. But that would be wrong, too.

 

Guess what I'm saying is.....it's all good.

Glad you brought that up! At nine yards a pass, you need to complete at least two passes to keep the sticks moving. Which means 1 in 11 times we don't complete a pass and 1 in 3 times we complete only one pass amd still wouldn't convert a first time. It roughly translates into that 42.5% of the time we come out and throw three straight plays we won't convert a first down. That's scary.

 

However, if we run just once with a 7.08 yd/carry average according to ncaa statistics online, our chances of converting a first down would jump to 80%*.

 

*Basic model that can't take into account varriations in running plays, but on pass failure model where run plays are always a success.

[RedDenver]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

I didn't say that. Pretty much the opposite. I'm saying in terms of success, failure and turnover, running the ball is essentially as risky as passing the ball. If you think of a forward pass as a handy way of getting the ball past the 7 huge guys lined up to stop every rush, it's much less cute, even bordering on practical. Running plays are preferable in a number of situations, but they fail for the same reason passing plays fail, and perhaps more often than some Husker fans choose to remember.

 

You also bring up the 55% pass completion rate, which some offer as evidence that the passing game doesn't deserve its reps. But if you look at it in terms of actual results, Nebraska is averaging 9 yards a pass play and 7 yards a running play. One could therefore argue we should pass even more. But that would be wrong, too.

 

Guess what I'm saying is.....it's all good.

Glad you brought that up! At nine yards a pass, you need to complete at least two passes to keep the sticks moving. Which means 1 in 11 times we don't complete a pass and 1 in 3 times we complete only one pass amd still wouldn't convert a first time. It roughly translates into that 42.5% of the time we come out and throw three straight plays we won't convert a first down. That's scary.

 

However, if we run just once with a 7.08 yd/carry average according to ncaa statistics online, our chances of converting a first down would jump to 80%*.

 

*Basic model that can't take into account varriations in running plays, but on pass failure model where run plays are always a success.

 

If your model does not take into account variations in running, then we'd never convert a first down in a single run but always convert in two runs. The variations are as important as the expected value when doing predictions.

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

 

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

I didn't say that. Pretty much the opposite. I'm saying in terms of success, failure and turnover, running the ball is essentially as risky as passing the ball. If you think of a forward pass as a handy way of getting the ball past the 7 huge guys lined up to stop every rush, it's much less cute, even bordering on practical. Running plays are preferable in a number of situations, but they fail for the same reason passing plays fail, and perhaps more often than some Husker fans choose to remember.

 

You also bring up the 55% pass completion rate, which some offer as evidence that the passing game doesn't deserve its reps. But if you look at it in terms of actual results, Nebraska is averaging 9 yards a pass play and 7 yards a running play. One could therefore argue we should pass even more. But that would be wrong, too.

 

Guess what I'm saying is.....it's all good.

Glad you brought that up! At nine yards a pass, you need to complete at least two passes to keep the sticks moving. Which means 1 in 11 times we don't complete a pass and 1 in 3 times we complete only one pass amd still wouldn't convert a first time. It roughly translates into that 42.5% of the time we come out and throw three straight plays we won't convert a first down. That's scary.

 

However, if we run just once with a 7.08 yd/carry average according to ncaa statistics online, our chances of converting a first down would jump to 80%*.

 

*Basic model that can't take into account varriations in running plays, but on pass failure model where run plays are always a success.

 

That's all fine and dandy. However, the running doesn't work nearly as well without the pass.

[deedsker]

 

 

 

 

 

Well you can do the same thing with pass plays; they are often good calls and would have been successful if someting else had happened.

 

I just don't get why an incomplete pass or interception is an example of Beck out-thinking himself or getting too cute, but a fumble or a stuffed run isn't.

 

I'm pretty sure our senior leader loves having a legitimate passing threat that loosens up the linebackers for him.

Simple Guy.

 

Because it didn't work.

I have never understood the "too cute" phrase. It's simply a catch phrase that has caught on with Husker fans whenever a pass play doesn't work. TA back to pass. Incomplete. OH, that (*&(*&$ is getting too cute with his play calling.

 

The play was a great call. The communication between receiver and QB didn't work. A coach explained after the game that the receiver ran the wrong route and that's why the ball went the way it did. If it had worked, it would be a great play.

 

Notice nobody claims the long pass play to Bell was "Beck getting too cute". That of course was a great play call because it went for a TD and caused them to back off their safeties.

More things to get wrong with a pass play like Guy said.

I didn't say that. Pretty much the opposite. I'm saying in terms of success, failure and turnover, running the ball is essentially as risky as passing the ball. If you think of a forward pass as a handy way of getting the ball past the 7 huge guys lined up to stop every rush, it's much less cute, even bordering on practical. Running plays are preferable in a number of situations, but they fail for the same reason passing plays fail, and perhaps more often than some Husker fans choose to remember.

 

You also bring up the 55% pass completion rate, which some offer as evidence that the passing game doesn't deserve its reps. But if you look at it in terms of actual results, Nebraska is averaging 9 yards a pass play and 7 yards a running play. One could therefore argue we should pass even more. But that would be wrong, too.

 

Guess what I'm saying is.....it's all good.

Glad you brought that up! At nine yards a pass, you need to complete at least two passes to keep the sticks moving. Which means 1 in 11 times we don't complete a pass and 1 in 3 times we complete only one pass amd still wouldn't convert a first time. It roughly translates into that 42.5% of the time we come out and throw three straight plays we won't convert a first down. That's scary.

 

However, if we run just once with a 7.08 yd/carry average according to ncaa statistics online, our chances of converting a first down would jump to 80%*.

 

*Basic model that can't take into account varriations in running plays, but on pass failure model where run plays are always a success.

If your model does not take into account variations in running, then we'd never convert a first down in a single run but always convert in two runs. The variations are as important as the expected value when doing predictions.

To make the model work, i would need the outcome of every run to make the two mesh. The model does work perfect for passing so take those outcomes and ponder. That is why I used the method I did.

[BigRedBuster]

Here is what's going to happen. Illinois is going to play defense more like Fresno State and McNeese State because they don't have the athletes like what Miami thought they had.

 

So, expect to see more passing in this game.

But...I will guarantee you fans will be on here mad (even with a win) that Beck decided to "get cute" again. After all, he just needs to ride Ameer to a championship.