NoLongerN

Ended day at 1027 with one full day to go.  So, much steeper trajectory currently then model.

They're literally still increasing at an exponential rate...

He makes some assumption in his analysis which makes me question his reasoning. First he says: "For the sake of argument, I am going to assume that all 205 American deaths occurred on March 19^th and all of these people were infected on February 25^th ".    Then he says: "The number of infected people doubles every 3 days".  (If you're going to assume infections double every three days, then lumping the cumulative number of deaths together on one day would be wildly inaccurate.)  Then again I'm not a mathematician.  :shrug: