Recruiting Talent vs Success

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

Way to put in the time and effort Ohio Pete!

[Ohio Pete]

Ok my brother and I always debate that recruiting doesnt mean as much as I think it means. My arguement is that ON AVERAGE the teams with the best recruiting classes year in and year out are the teams that are fighting for a spot in the national championship games or BCS games. He just doesnt seem to think that is true. I even went to every teams web site who you have listed in the first post out of the top ten recruiting classes on average and looked at their leaders in stats in all offensive categories. Combined, all the teams that I looked three of them were below a four star. I was just wondering where you got your info from and if you could possibly give me a link so I can maybe shut him up. I would appreciate it, thanks.

 

I actually put together a spreadsheet with the top 100 teams recruiting rankings from rivals. I'm not sure what the policy is on posting files to these forums. I also remember nothing from stats class so keep that in mind when I say things like correlation. Another thing to keep in mind is that some years are better than others in terms of talent so a top ten class from 2005 might not have made it in the top ten in 2006. I would use the Rivals Points, but I suspect they changed the scoring system. I'll have to research that more.

 

Unfortunately, I only have top 25 stuff from the AP poll for most years so NU and Florida look equivalent in 2002 and 2004 when both finished outside the top 25. The 26-119 ranking for 2006 is from Sportsline. I was looking for a source which just had the ratings of the teams falling outside of the polls, but didn't come up with anything with historic data.

 

Anyway, here are the teams with the top recruitng average ranking from 2002-2006:

3.5 Southern Cal

6.33 Georgia

7.5 Oklahoma

7.83 Florida

8.5 Florida State

8.5 LSU

9.5 Texas

10 Miami-FL

10.17 Tennessee

11.33 Auburn

 

Except for 2002 (Ohio State) all of the champions from 2001-2006 are on this list. In fact, all of the number 2 and 3 teams are on this list also except for Oregon (#2 2001), Penn State (#3 2005), and Ohio State (#3 2006).

 

On the other hand, pretty much every year, 2 of the teams with the highest average recruiting (2002-2006) finished outside the top 25: 2001 Auburn, USC; 2002 Florida, LSU, TN; 2003 Auburn; 2004 Miami, Florida; 2005 Miami, TN; Miami, FSU.

[skersfan]

It appears to me that a team that is not ranked on a regular basis, has no or very little chance at the NC. Every single NC over the last 6-7 years has been a recruiting dynamo.

 

Nebraska has never been a recruiting power house, but seems to be moving closer to the big boys at this time, but you can see from Ohio Petes list we are still a long way off in level of quality ahtletes. That may have some affect on second half fall offs. Not enough depth.

[Hawkeyehusker]

We are going to do better this season because of the recruiting. This is our third solid class in a row. Just one or two good classes will not do much but when you are consistantly pulling in the solid classes you will see the difference on the field.

 

Look at the rest of the north. We beat every single northern opponent this last season. The primary reason is the athletes. Look over the rest of the northern divisions recruiting history over the last three years. No other northern team comes close to us. The way we are pulling in athletes it will be a major upset if we lose any northern divison games at all next season. The other teams just don't have the athletes to effectively compete with us. It won't be long before we start winning the Conference itself.

[skersfan]

Hawkeye,

 

Our goal is not the North. Until we get and keep top 5-10 classes we most likely will not win the Conference. Texas and Oklahoma are still way ahead in quality and depth. In honesty we have had one real good class and most of it is gone. Recruiting is still the problem at Nebraska for a number of reasons. I am almost beginning to believe it has something to do with our rabid fans. We tend to expect so much from them, maybe they just don't want to deal with it. But something keeps the top of the class from coming to Nebraska. If we could figure that out we would be farther down the road. Not a slap at BC, he knows what he is doing on the recruiting scene, but for some reason is not as successful as I thought he would be. But I believe he is making inroads. Only time will tell.

[gamecocks]

Our goal is not the North.

 

Yes and No. It is not the highest goal that we have set, but it is still a goal that we must reach if we want to reach the other goals. I don't see us ever backing into the National Championship again like we did in 01. So winning the north is the most important goal we have as it will give us the opportunity to win the Big 12 Championship and play in a BCS game. Our ultimate goal is the National Championship but that can most likely not be obtained without first winning the north.

[skersfan]

Gamecocks,

 

I totally agree with that and understand what you are saying. I was just saying we have to do a lot better to be in the hunt and just winning the North is not where this program or fans want to be. I still do not feel our recruiting is where it needs to be. And God I wish I had an answer for that. I see talent losses to SC and Texas, maybe twice or to Oklahoma next year. The rest we should be able to play with no problem. But we are just not deep enough to bang with the big boys. Although we did a pretty good job this year with Texas and Auburn. I think the coaching and motivation is there, we just need a few game breakers to step up, or be recruited.

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

Hawkeye,

 

Our goal is not the North. Until we get and keep top 5-10 classes we most likely will not win the Conference. Texas and Oklahoma are still way ahead in quality and depth. In honesty we have had one real good class and most of it is gone. Recruiting is still the problem at Nebraska for a number of reasons. I am almost beginning to believe it has something to do with our rabid fans. We tend to expect so much from them, maybe they just don't want to deal with it. But something keeps the top of the class from coming to Nebraska. If we could figure that out we would be farther down the road. Not a slap at BC, he knows what he is doing on the recruiting scene, but for some reason is not as successful as I thought he would be. But I believe he is making inroads. Only time will tell.

Rabid fans? Who is going to fill the seats and keep the consecutive streak alive if not for the fans? Maybe the boosters can step up and do something worthwhile and buy a block of tickets so some disadvantaged grade schoolers can go to a game.

 

Nebraska starts with a disadvantage because of location: a cold weather state in a non tourist attraction city. No beaches, mountains, or any scenic attributes to grab the kids attention. You could try the Colorado or Minnesota approach and show them the party scene along O street but even that isn't that impressive.

 

The Nebraska winning tradition with 800+ wins and 5 national championships are the biggest factors that keep recruiting competitive. Keep winning and more of the better players will want to be part of that. I do believe that Coach Callahan does have things moving in the right direction and the longer he stays the stronger the program will get. He's still establishing himself as a coach and the more he accomplishes the more blue chip recruits will want to come and play for him and Nebraska.

[AR Husker Fan]

***SNIP***

 

The Nebraska winning tradition with 800+ wins and 5 national championships are the biggest factors that keep recruiting competitive. Keep winning and more of the better players will want to be part of that. I do believe that Coach Callahan does have things moving in the right direction and the longer he stays the stronger the program will get. He's still establishing himself as a coach and the more he accomplishes the more blue chip recruits will want to come and play for him and Nebraska.

Bingo. It's a chicken-or-the-egg situation. Top talent wants to go to the winners, thinking it enhances their chances to reach the next level. So, to get the top talent, you have to beat the elite. To beat the elite, you have to recruit the top talent.

 

For a team that isn't currently one of the elite, that means that they have to get enough "next tier" talent, catch some breaks, and have an outstanding season. That will get them a few of the top recruits - which sustains the wins over elites, and leads to more top recurits, which leads to more wins, which leads to...

 

Well, you get the idea.

[skersfan]

I agree with both of you guys comments. But the problem is we have never been able to recruit the ones the others go after. It really started to be apparent in 98. A NC year prior and we did not get one look from a top 100 kid on Rivals if I remember correctly.

 

We have been curesed with this issue forever it seems. But now it seems more important. We can not just recruit road graders, let them set and grow for three years and play. Today athletes want to play now. I don't have a reason why we seem to be overlooked other than the reasons we have mentioned over and over. I just don't know if I buy into the win and they will come senario. It never happened before. We were just able to overcome the problem with our offense.

 

I hope you guys are right, but I have yet to see the indication it is happening. We ended up 13th this year with the lowest overall rating per athlete. We ended up there due to numbers not quality. That may improve depth, but it does not get the playmakers we need.

 

I certianly want to be wrong on my thoughts. I love BC and feel we have the right guy, I just don't think the winning tradition and the fans make that much difference anymore. We have lost our only two top 100 athletes, one after a single quarter and the other before he ever got to campus. Why? We are not restocking with that level of athlete. We lost Smith to Oklahoma and Meleuga(spelling) to SC. Those kids would have made a difference. Is it Nebraska or are the other programs using something against us to change the kids minds.

 

That being said, is why I am willing to give this staff alot more time than most. They are fighting a very uphill battle that most on this board do not see. As hard as it is for some to believe this is not the program that most top athletes go to bed dreaming about. Until we have some thinking that, it is going to be hard to overcome the ones that get those kids.

[Rygolf25]

Honestly, I think our problem was Frankie...T.O. and Turner were able to get solid talent in even though they may not have been Rivals top 100 material. Callahan and staff seem to be doing a good job in hitting the large states (cali and Texas) for recruits and have had two of the best recruiting classes we've seen at NU in recent history. The problem was that period when Solich was here. Do you all remember how big a "find" Joe Dailey was??? OMG, can we please take that one back??? We just haven't had the steady leadership to keep bringing in big talent but hopefully we can continue this current streak and maybe our classes will get stronger. MAYBE.

[junior4949]

***SNIP***

 

The Nebraska winning tradition with 800+ wins and 5 national championships are the biggest factors that keep recruiting competitive. Keep winning and more of the better players will want to be part of that. I do believe that Coach Callahan does have things moving in the right direction and the longer he stays the stronger the program will get. He's still establishing himself as a coach and the more he accomplishes the more blue chip recruits will want to come and play for him and Nebraska.

Bingo. It's a chicken-or-the-egg situation. Top talent wants to go to the winners, thinking it enhances their chances to reach the next level. So, to get the top talent, you have to beat the elite. To beat the elite, you have to recruit the top talent.

 

For a team that isn't currently one of the elite, that means that they have to get enough "next tier" talent, catch some breaks, and have an outstanding season. That will get them a few of the top recruits - which sustains the wins over elites, and leads to more top recurits, which leads to more wins, which leads to...

 

Well, you get the idea.

 

 

I don't necessarily agree that top talent wants to go to the winners. I read an article the other day that said Florida State was the biggest direct pipeline to the NFL of any college football team. Look at how high they end up doing in recruiting despite really doing nothing on the field. It's been several years since FSU was mentioned in the same breath as NC, but players go there because they want to play in the NFL. Until Nebraska puts a QB or some other high profile skill position in the NFL on a regular basis, we're always going to get the second nod. College football isn't about winning or losing. It's simply a stepping stone to most players. Why do you think Freeman went to KState? He knew he would get to play a lot sooner and get a lot more exposure than here at NU.

[BIGREDIOWAN]