How long until the Big 12 crumbles?

[knapplc]

If the Big XII were a gunshot victim it would still be in ICU with internal bleeding and an irregular heartbeat. It would most definitely still be on life support.

 

Missouri still has half a foot out the door. Reports from Aggieland have the 12th Man sharpening his pitchfork and readying torches. Oklahoma and OU Fan might wake up at any moment and realize how utterly foolish they look. Unless you're in Austin or Waco, you're not surrounded by people happy about the way this conference was resuscitated.

 

And all across the landscape of college football there are still rumblings of expansion - the Pac-10, Big 10 and MWC have already added teams, and the Big East has been rumored to be looking around. The Big XII, recently experiencing a shrinking feeling, are rumored to be looking at Houston in their own expansion talks.

 

Bottom line here - if expansion talk continues, the Big XII remains one of the most vulnerable conferences in the country due to geography and internecine fighting. Deep cracks have appeared on the Big XII facade, and the unity you'd expect from a conference alleging future wealth for their members seems nonexistent.

[GSG]

I wonder what the odds are in Vegas...

[EbylHusker]

10+ years. Why? Because nobody else will vote for it.

[sd'sker]

i was on the fence between 3-5 and 6-10. i think five years at least, but i would think it would go longer than shorter. if bevoTV takes off and becomes a huge cash longwhorn, then TU will have more incentive to keep the big 12-2 together, or just go independent, if it is a failure, then the pac 10 would look pretty good, or sec. it all comes down to bevoTV.

[HuskerTrucker]

I give them two years, by then OU, MU, OSU, and A&M will see that Beebe lied about the numbers, the only school that makes out under this plan is Texass. All it would take right now is for one of the major conferences to decide to do a major expansion, and everyone will be running for the door so not to be left behind and not get a spot in one of the major 4 conferences.

[Lil' Red]

I give them 3-5 years but if the Big Ten or another conference expands sooner than that it could easily be 1 or 2 years.

[deedsker15]

I give them 3-5 years but if the Big Ten or another conference expands sooner than that it could easily be 1 or 2 years.

 

yep...the other conferences are going hunting in two years and the big 12-2 will be hunted like a fat buck making a hell of a lot of noise

[knapplc]

I just hope the Big 10 continues to expand and eventually adds Missouri so we can all welcome Fro and MUTigerFan to our conference.

[junior4949]

At some point in time, the SEC is going hunting. Whenever this happens, the final nail will be driven into the Big 12's coffin.

[irafreak]

Not sure about the SEC going hunting unless they pursue OU and A&M. (prestigious program and grounds into texass)

 

I think a lot of the big twelve just wasn't prepared. Now that the idea of the conference dying is in the back of their minds there will be a lot of shopping around. I will be surprised if this league is still here in 5 years without any changes (that is Texass giving back a little to the other members).

 

I'm still hoping the mountain west can make a move to push for BCS eligibilty by getting a beebe style tv proposal and wooing (whooing?) ksu, ku....

[junior4949]

The Mountain West had a very good chance until the Pac-10 stole Utah. You don't lose the 31st largest market and replace it with something like the 103rd market and get an automatic BCS bid and a TV contract.

[husker_99]

The Mountain West had a very good chance until the Pac-10 stole Utah. You don't lose the 31st largest market and replace it with something like the 103rd market and get an automatic BCS bid and a TV contract.

 

yeah but they traded for the same quality of football though. I think Boise State would be good enough to get MWC an AQ BCS bid. BYU does have a bigger presence in Utah than Utah. I don't think they lost much to be honest as far as tv ratings. People tuned in to see Boise St. play just as much as Utah. They did beat a good Sooner team that was one win away from playing for another national title.

[WashingtonRed]

The graph now has a awesomely symbolic look to it.

[knapplc]

The graph now has a awesomely symbolic look to it.

 

A little like this: ..!.

[Nexus]

It's inevitable that expansion will happen again. I've already pointed out in another thread that the Big Ten will add teams in phases over time to coincide with the year 2015 because that will be the year they renegotiate their ABC/ESPN TV contract. It's also the year that NBC's contract with Notre Dame ends. If ND doesn't show any improvement over the next 3-4 years, their NBC contract could be in jeopardy, which would mean they'd have to join the Big Ten to stay relevant.

 

So what does this mean for the Big 12? They'll end up getting pillaged again during the next round of expansion. A&M will end up in the SEC eventually. OU is another good candidate to the SEC since there were rumors that there was mutual interest. The Pac-10 will always leave their door open for UT if the Big 12 doesn't pan out. The Big Ten might also leave their door open for UT if there is enough room when it's all said and done, but their crown jewel is still Notre Dame, make no mistake about it. Mizzou would still love to go to the Big Ten and very well could if and when it goes to 16 teams.

 

So many future scenarios point to the likelihood that the Big 12 will eventually come tumbling down. Therefore I voted 3-5 years.