CFN.com Fearless Prediction: Mizz-Neb

[GSG]

GAME OF THE WEEK

 

Missouri (7-0) at Nebraska (6-1) Oct. 30, 3:30, ABC

 

Here’s The Deal … For 26 straight years from 1979 to 2004, Nebraska dominated Missouri. This wasn’t a rivalry, since there have to be two sides to form one, and then Missouri got good. Really good. The Tigers have had their moments against the Huskers with blowout wins in 2005, 2007, and 2008, but because it’s still Nebraska, and because it’s still Missouri, there’s always going to be an assumption that things will restore back to the old ways. Forget that the 2010 Tigers just beat the No. 1 team in the nation, and forget that Nebraska lost at home to a miserable Texas team, getting exposed along the way by a defense that wanted to play, it’s just assumed that this is where the fun ends. Missouri loses, Nebraska wins, Nebraska goes on to play for the Big 12 title before leaving for the Big Ten, and Missouri is left to hope for an at-large BCS game. There. Clean, easy, and simple.

 

Maybe not.

 

This Missouri team doesn’t have the superstar power of the Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman version, but this is a more complete, tougher team. Those Tiger teams tended to melt down with things got tight against the better teams, but this year’s version is on an even keel with a veteran, swarming defense and an unflappable quarterback in Blaine Gabbert who doesn’t try to do everything himself. Yes, the Missouri Tigers really are good enough to be in the hunt for the national title. Nebraska is pretty good, too.

 

A week after getting pantsed by the Longhorns, Nebraska and Taylor Martinez decided to play a little offense, rolling up 51 points to end Oklahoma State’s unbeaten season. With road trips at Iowa State and Texas A&M, along with home dates against Kansas and Colorado, this is it. Missouri is the one road block between the Huskers and the Big 12 title, and while the national championship would be a tough sell considering how bad Texas is and because the game is at home, it could get close. Missouri also gets relatively smooth sailing with road trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State along with a home game with Kansas State and a neutral site game against Kansas. In other words, welcome to the 2010 Big 12 North Championship. You’ll miss this next year.

 

Why Missouri Might Win: Nebraska faced one defense with any measure of talent, and it failed. Oklahoma State has one of the worst defenses in America, but it’s the 2000 Baltimore Ravens compared to Kansas State and its 118th ranked run defense, Washington and the nation’s 104th ranked run defense, Idaho and the 85th ranked run D, and Western Kentucky and the 93rd ranked run defense. Texas, for all its problems, is sixth in the nation in total defense and 30th against the run with an aggressive front line and a fast enough back seven to keep Martinez and the Husker runners from turning small runs into backbreaking home runs. Missouri’s defense is better. The Tigers have allowed just 92 points all year and have been dominant against everyone’s offensive front. Last week, they were able to clamp down on the Oklahoma backs DeMarco Murray (49 yards) and Roy Finch (59 yards), and while Landry Jones wasn’t under a ton of pressure, he didn’t have too many places to go with the ball. He threw for 303 yards, but there were plenty of mid-range throws. Martinez is coming off a great game against Oklahoma State, but he’s not the passer that Jones is.

 

Why Nebraska Might Win: Missouri’s defense is terrific, and it’s going to be playing a half-step faster in a game like this, but it hasn’t faced a slew of top running teams. As great as Murray and the Sooner backs are, the OU offense is based on the passing game. San Diego State got a 228-yard day out of Ronnie Hillman and Illinois provided a possible glimpse of what’s about to come as QB Nathan Scheelhaase, in his first game, ran for 76 yards and Mikel Leshoure ran for 112. Defensively, Nebraska’s secondary got beaten up by Oklahoma State last week for 283 yards, but 80 of them came on a trick flea-flicker. Brandon Weeden only completed 18-of-35 passes, but at least he had Kendall Hunter to take the heat off with 201 rushing yards. Blaine Gabbert doesn’t have that, and with the way the Huskers make great quarterbacks (Washington’s Jake Locker and Idaho’s Nathan Enderle) look silly, it could be a long day for the Mizzou offense.

 

What To Watch Out For: Missouri dominated last year’s game in Columbia for three quarters, and then the turnovers started to come and the Huskers pounced in a rain-soaked fourth quarter. Roy Helu, who has taken a backseat to Martinez this year, took control was tough 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. A bit out of the mix over the last two weeks with Texas clamping down and the Oklahoma State game a shootout, he’s overdue to come up with a big performance. He has 500 rushing yards on the year with five touchdowns with three 100-yard games, and while he’s not normally a workhorse, he might be this week. Helping the Husker rushing game should be the absence of a key piece of the Tiger run defense. Nose tackle Dominique Hamilton was lost for the year in the Oklahoma game with a broken ankle, and it’s going to take a steady rotation of players to try to replace him on a full-time basis.

 

What Will Happen: Nebraska’s pass defense is going to make Blaine Gabbert look silly, it always does that to top quarterbacks, and Missouri’s run defense is going to hold surprisingly firm against Martinez and the running game. This will be a sloppy game with a few too many turnovers, lots of stalled drives, and few explosive drives. Missouri will drip, drip, drip its way to points, staying alive on field position and a few Grant Ressel bombs, and then Martinez will make two critical late mistakes, throwing a pick to end one drive and misfiring on another as the Tigers sneak away with a very, very hard win.

 

CFN Prediction: Missouri 19 … Nebraska 16 … Line: Nebraska -7

Must See Rating: NBA Opening Night – 5 … Teen Mom -1 … 5

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1016295.html

[TRIPP]

Good read, but i don't see the 2 late Martinez mistakes happening. I see it the same way, but with 2 late big TDs by Martinez. 1 passing TD to Reed over the middle for the go ahead lead, and one 40+ yard dash to go up by 14 and put Mizz to misery!!

[knapplc]

That was a good read, but the author is absolutely high if he thinks both teams will score under 20 points. I would imagine both will score between 24-35 points. As good as both defenses are, both offenses are very, very good.

[HuskerJosh]

Yeah, I don't think there's any way the total points scored in this game is 35. I'm far more inclined to say one team scores that much.

[TRIPP]

I feel a 35-49, 28-42 point game with Ne on Top

[tmfr15]

Okla State has a better offense. Gabbert is a better QB, but Weedon had more weapons, namely Hunter. Gabbert and MU's offense are one-dimensional. It's a good dimension with Gabbert throwing a TON, but it's still predictable. I look for Gabbert to get picked on tipped passes a few times. The Husker offense will keep rolling. MUs defense is good, but it's not that good. If you read what this guy has to say, he says that Texas is awful. What does that say about OU? Oklahoma has two wins that are worth talking about, FSU and Texas. Florida State nearly got beat by Boston College. And, remember now, Texas is horrid. Add to that, Oklahoma was in close games against the likes of Utah State and Cincinnati. So Missouri shut down Oklahoma. So what. OU probably is not the greatest team in the world. And neither is Missouri. If the Huskers simply execute their game plan, they win.

[junior4949]

Unless it's a turnover fest, I'll be surprised if the combined scores come in less than 50-60 points. It's not going to be a defensive juggarnaut unless there's a lot of turnovers from both teams.

[fro daddy]

I could be totally off, but i dont see a high scoring game. Mizzou has given up 36 total pts in conference to 3 teams that avg. 36, 30 & 16 pts in conference play and 35,33& 20 on the season.

 

It may happen but if it gets high i think you will see at 35-28 type of score. And I am not sure it gets that high.

[robsker]

I could be totally off, but i dont see a high scoring game. Mizzou has given up 36 total pts in conference to 3 teams that avg. 36, 30 & 16 pts in conference play and 35,33& 20 on the season.

 

It may happen but if it gets high i think you will see at 35-28 type of score. And I am not sure it gets that high.

 

 

Seems to me that Nu will be good for between 14-24 points and MU good for between 14-24 points as well. The game, to me, is a toss up. If Nu plays w/o too many mistakes I'll go Huskers 21-17. If we make mistakes (any unreasonable combination of picks, fumbles, blown tackles, or dropped passes) then MU 24-14 or so.

 

So... I guess I see neither a low or a high scoring contest --- rather, something in the middle.

[DJR313]

Hopefully CFN is wrong about the Huskers 3 weeks in a row!

[ADS]

I dont see Taylor making to many stupid mistakes Saturday, after he gained alot of confidence against Okie State. I see him making solid decisions, and really leading this offense to some good, sustained scoring drives.

[kchusker_chris]

I could be totally off, but i dont see a high scoring game. Mizzou has given up 36 total pts in conference to 3 teams that avg. 36, 30 & 16 pts in conference play and 35,33& 20 on the season.

 

It may happen but if it gets high i think you will see at 35-28 type of score. And I am not sure it gets that high.

agree. I expect Gabbert will need to scramble for 3rd downs most of the day. Gilbert had run for slim-to-none prior to facing our dominant run defense. Expect to see that same thing 4-5 times for 40 yards, but he can't do that all game. MU's defensive end's contain well and NU will have a number of 3 & outs because of this. Things will eventually start clicking for one or the other, or a couple turnovers will open the game up. Definately lower scoring game though, which are games we usually win (if we can keep our fumbles under 8...8 is our breaking point). I like our chances in the second half as well, (defense adjusts well - see Texas/Okie). If we're within seven at half time I'll be ok. Anything more than that - especially if they were quick Gabbert strikes...and I'm worried.

[fro daddy]

I could be totally off, but i dont see a high scoring game. Mizzou has given up 36 total pts in conference to 3 teams that avg. 36, 30 & 16 pts in conference play and 35,33& 20 on the season.

 

It may happen but if it gets high i think you will see at 35-28 type of score. And I am not sure it gets that high.

agree. I expect Gabbert will need to scramble for 3rd downs most of the day. Gilbert had run for slim-to-none prior to facing our dominant run defense. Expect to see that same thing 4-5 times for 40 yards, but he can't do that all game. MU's defensive end's contain well and NU will have a number of 3 & outs because of this. Things will eventually start clicking for one or the other, or a couple turnovers will open the game up. Definately lower scoring game though, which are games we usually win (if we can keep our fumbles under 8...8 is our breaking point). I like our chances in the second half as well, (defense adjusts well - see Texas/Okie). If we're within seven at half time I'll be ok. Anything more than that - especially if they were quick Gabbert strikes...and I'm worried.

 

 

.......what!?!?....oh sorry, i didnt catch any of that. I was staring at your av.

 

[The Ref]

Okla State has a better offense. Gabbert is a better QB, but Weedon had more weapons, namely Hunter. Gabbert and MU's offense are one-dimensional. It's a good dimension with Gabbert throwing a TON, but it's still predictable. I look for Gabbert to get picked on tipped passes a few times. The Husker offense will keep rolling. MUs defense is good, but it's not that good. If you read what this guy has to say, he says that Texas is awful. What does that say about OU? Oklahoma has two wins that are worth talking about, FSU and Texas. Florida State nearly got beat by Boston College. And, remember now, Texas is horrid. Add to that, Oklahoma was in close games against the likes of Utah State and Cincinnati. So Missouri shut down Oklahoma. So what. OU probably is not the greatest team in the world. And neither is Missouri. If the Huskers simply execute their game plan, they win.

 

 

Nebraska isn't the greatest team in the world either.. you can't lose to Texas, this year, and be considered a great team.

 

Will be a great on on Saturday.

[Chaddyboxer]

Okla State has a better offense. Gabbert is a better QB, but Weedon had more weapons, namely Hunter. Gabbert and MU's offense are one-dimensional. It's a good dimension with Gabbert throwing a TON, but it's still predictable. I look for Gabbert to get picked on tipped passes a few times. The Husker offense will keep rolling. MUs defense is good, but it's not that good. If you read what this guy has to say, he says that Texas is awful. What does that say about OU? Oklahoma has two wins that are worth talking about, FSU and Texas. Florida State nearly got beat by Boston College. And, remember now, Texas is horrid. Add to that, Oklahoma was in close games against the likes of Utah State and Cincinnati. So Missouri shut down Oklahoma. So what. OU probably is not the greatest team in the world. And neither is Missouri. If the Huskers simply execute their game plan, they win.

 

 

Nebraska isn't the greatest team in the world either.. you can't lose to Texas, this year, and be considered a great team.

 

Will be a great on on Saturday.

f'ing A RIGHT BROTHA!! GBR!!!