Some Statistical Calculations

[Glendower]

This isn't really the interesting statistic-- I think it would be more interesting to look at the calls made by that officiating crew or ALL opponent penalties vs against NU; or all penalties by the teams played the very penalty-lopsided games vs their penalties against NU.

 

Looking at penalties called against NU is a sketchy way to go; even in the discussions about the A&M game, most nu fans had to admit that most of the 16 calls were legit. Now, it's hard to go back and verify non calls, but it is possible to show how statistically anomalous some of our opponents have been in terms of penalties called compared to all of their other performances.

 

I guess I'll just have to call to reactivate SPSS tomorrow (I hate that they adopted an activation scheme there)

 

Good call. I like the idea of looking at our opponents penalty total versus NU as compared to their other B12 officiated games.

 

Haha okay, I wrote my post in a very clunky way as I tried to spit out a lot of ideas in a couple of sentences. But yes, what you wrote!

 

I didn't meant to be that dismissive of the original analysis, either. I meant "not interesting" more in that it wasn't as useful for formulating an objective argument... of course it IS interesting

[HUSKERCR]

So you're saying the fix was on because the penalty distribution wasn't random?

 

I'm saying, based on the statistics, the jump in penalties and yards against NU in the Texas and

A&M games by the same officiating crew wasn't due to random chance as many apologists have proposed.

 

I can't prove the official's motivation for their statistically significant increase in penalties.

Statistical analysis doesn't allow you to read minds.

 

The "fix was in" comment is The HUSKERCR Personal Opinion based on the data.

 

You can get back to your Personal Crusade to defend Wats now zoogies...

[HUSKERCR]

As some author from some state of east of Kansas said:

1) Lies

2) Damn lies

3) Statistics

 

Since the only alternative is a oujii board, I'll use statistics...

[mel4red]

Nice job, HUSKERCR!

 

Three questions:

 

1) Why did you not include the Iowa State game? It was the same officiating crew.

 

2) Does anyone know if this was the same crew as last year's CCG against Texas?

 

3) Can you run the numbers to see what the variation is in each individual game by that crew compare to the other games, and then see what the statistical likelihood is that you would randomly see that variation each time the crew officiates?

 

In other words, if that crew is off just once, may not be a big deal. But for them to be so out of sorts on multiple occasions is like one in a million. Make sense?

 

Edit: I have also heard a stat that our opponents have not been called for holding in the last 5 games. I am curious how rare that is and what the likelihood is that that is by random chance. Any takers?

Not true. There was one holding call against Kansas in the second half after the call from Dan Beebe was dropped by Verizon, and the ref had no choice but to step it off.

[irafreak]

So you're saying the fix was on because the penalty distribution wasn't random?

 

I'm saying, based on the statisitics, the jump in penalties and yards against NU in the Texas and

A&M games by the same officiating crew wasn't due to random chance as many apologists have proposed.

 

I can't prove the official's motivation for their statistically significant increase in penalties.

Statistical analysis doesn't allow you to read minds.

 

The "fix was in" comment is The HUSKERCR Personal Opinion based on the data.

 

You can get back to your Personal Crusade to defend Wats now zoogies...

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

Great job! This confirms with additional evidence what we already knew.

 

I'd be curious to see how our penalties break out between offense, defense and special teams.

[Glendower]

Because I'm the worst procrastinator in the world (meaning that I don't find very "fun" things to do while I'm putting other work off), I just finished keying in each team's # of penalties in each game in a 12 x 12 matrix. I'm trying to find the best way to do a real analysis with the data set this way. The first goof around I did was finding the average number of penalties called against teams' opponents.

BU 7.25

CU 7.29

ISU 5.25

KU 7.14

KSU 6.38

MU 5.57

NU 4.14

OK 8.57

OSU 7.00

UT 7.14

TAM 7.57

TT 7.63

 

Again, these are not these teams' average penalties per game, but the average number of penalties called against their opponents. No analysis yet...

 

Edited for more precise numbers.

[DefensiveLineU]

Million dollar question? who is officiating the Big12 Title game? other than Beebe

[junior4949]

Someone's going to have to jog my memory. What were the bad calls made during the Texas game?

[knapplc]

Someone's going to have to jog my memory. What were the bad calls made during the Texas game?

Do you want bad calls made or calls that should have been made but weren't? Those can change the game as much as flags thrown.

 

I know it's a lot of fun to be "above the fray" and hold the moral high ground on all things Husker, but every once in a while the people who bitch are the people who are right. It's not always the people who bitch about the people who bitch.

[Glendower]

Someone's going to have to jog my memory. What were the bad calls made during the Texas game?

 

I'm not claiming that there were any particular "bad calls" against NU in any games. My numbers are showing the average number of calls made against the respective team's opponents in games.

[junior4949]

Someone's going to have to jog my memory. What were the bad calls made during the Texas game?

Do you want bad calls made or calls that should have been made but weren't? Those can change the game as much as flags thrown.

 

I know it's a lot of fun to be "above the fray" and hold the moral high ground on all things Husker, but every once in a while the people who bitch are the people who are right. It's not always the people who bitch about the people who bitch.

 

Any of them will work. I don't remember either one of them. I remember our WR's dropping TD pass after TD pass, but I don't remember any particular bad no calls or bad calls.

[Tora! Tora! Tora!]

Because I'm the worst procrastinator in the world (meaning that I don't find very "fun" things to do while I'm putting other work off), I just finished keying in each team's # of penalties in each game in a 12 x 12 matrix. I'm trying to find the best way to do a real analysis with the data set this way. The first goof around I did was finding the average number of penalties called against teams' opponents.

BU 7.25

CU 7.29

ISU 5.25

KU 7.14

KSU 6.38

MU 5.57

NU 4.14

OK 8.57

OSU 7.00

UT 7.14

TAM 7.57

TT 7.63

 

Again, these are not these teams' average penalties per game, but the average number of penalties called against their opponents. No analysis yet...

 

Edited for more precise numbers.

 

If you were to sort this list by least to most, you'll notice that NORTH teams are all on top (least amount of help from the Refs). I'm not sure what this means, if anything, but it is interesting.

[knapplc]

If you were to sort this list by least to most, you'll notice that NORTH teams are all on top (least amount of help from the Refs). I'm not sure what this means, if anything, but it is interesting.

 

Sadly, I think you're going to find it more than just interesting this time next year. I do not envy you guys in this conference next year.

 

In some ways I feel like we're the prisoner being set free - happy to be free, but fearful for my friends still in captivity. Probably not the best analogy, but it makes the point.

[Glendower]

Here's the data table. Rows can be read as penalties on that team with the final column representing the average # of penalties called against that team. Columns can be read as penalties called against the team's opponents with the final row representing the average number of calls against that team's opponents.

 

I probably don't need to explain this here, but just for the heck of it: the missing data is due to the fact that not every team in the big 12 plays every other team and that the season isn't over as of this posting (and, of course, the diagonal is blank because teams don't play themselves... though maybe the number of penalties from the spring game... ).