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9 Things and One Crazy Prediction


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Found this perusing the soonerfans.com site. Seems UT may be up to their antics again. And people wonder why NU is leaving the conference

 

Austin Statesman

 

1. If you're asking why ESPN is close to finalizing a deal to link up with Texas as its broadcast partner for the new Longhorn television network, for exorbitant figures perhaps approaching $15 million a year, it's because the worldwide leader is hoping to use this platform as a way to leverage with Texas' help a deal to acquire all of the Big 12's television rights that will be negotiated next spring. And, yes, we all know Texas has clout. If the other nine members of the reconfigured Big 12 don't go along, Texas hasn't minded using its power before and could easily reopen talks with the Pac-12 or go independent. ESPN is positioning itself for the inside track with the Big 12 and squeezing out Fox.

 

One very highly placed Big 12 school official told me the other nine schools are holding preliminary discussions about their own networks. To avoid Texas threatening to leave again, the opinion here is the Big 12 must be aggressive and try to strengthen itself against other assaults. That means looking to expand. The Big 12 should go after Arkansas and LSU, Arizona and Arizona State, even Notre Dame. I keep hearing Kansas is talking to the Big East. Who would blame the Jayhawks for looking, since they were nearly left out in the last realignment merry-go-round?

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Arkansas went to the SEC to move away from Texas. Why in the hell would they want to leave the SEC to join Texas again?

 

Zero chance the Hogs return to the SWC (+ OU).

 

If the chances are 0 that Arkansas joins the Big 12, then the chances of Notre Dame joining would somehow be in the negative range.

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Arkansas wont join the Big 12 that's a fact of life. They are very very happy in the SEC. What the Big 12 did do that was completely moronic is the second Nebraska and Colorado said adios, it should have gotten TCU and Boise State. Everyone in the league could have honestly have said it would have been better off. Yes, Nebraska will become a power again, but the fact of the matter is Boise State and TCU are powers NOW. Notre Dame wont touch it with a 10 ft pole(Big 12). Texas can do as it pleases and until someone in their conference has the guts to stand up to them they can do that.

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I think the fact that TCU just accepted a bid to join the Big Least shows the Big 12-2 is doomed. Why would they accept that nod if they had a snowball's chance of joining the Texas 12? They clearly would not, if for no other reason than the cost in travel for their Olympic sports. Clearly TCU has information that leads them to believe they will not get into the Big 12, OR they have info leading them to believe the Big 12 will dissolve soon.

 

This deal between Texas and ESPN is huge, people. Do not discount this situation in the grand scheme of things. If Texas is guaranteed a Notre Dame deal (an automatic berth into the BCS if they're in the BCS top eight), all they have to do is schedule nine patsies and two decent teams, win their two games and demolish the patsies, they're golden with a guaranteed $15 million from ESPN and another $9 million from a BCS game - which they would not split. That's a cool $24 million without hassles per year, which they would have made four of the past six years.

 

Texas is in the driver's seat, big time. The rest of the Texettes can rattle their sabers all they want - the Whorns will laugh all the way to the bank regardless of what the others do. That's the kind of leverage Texas brings to the table in every negotiation with the dregs of this conference, and not one of the others brings the same. Without Texas the Big 12 has marquee Oklahoma, Big Money A&M (but rarely a contender, lately), Oklahoma State which is locally known but not a national draw, and a Tech squad that screwed themselves by firing Leach. Missouri is on-again/off-again, but rarely a contender to be much of anything, and KSU, KU, Baylor and ISU are afterthoughts.

 

It is beyond stupid the way Missouri, Baylor, A&M, KU, KSU and ISU have let themselves get screwed here. But the most criminally stupid school in this whole fiasco is Oklahoma, a non-AAU school whose national appeal is minimal due to academic shortcomings (they're ranked 52nd amongst Public Universities by US News & World Report). That ranking, combined with their failure to gain AAU membership, makes Oklahoma's position extremely difficult in a conference without Texas. They will not gain admission into the Big Ten (AAU membership required) and they will not be asked to join the SEC (can't remember why, but this came out with expansion talks last year). They MAY go to the Pac-12, but if they do that'll trigger Armageddon and half the remainder of the Big 12 will get left outside looking in anyway. Oklahoma needs a strong conference, while Texas doesn't. Knowing this, they still threw their lot in with the Whorns rather than their traditional brethren to the North, and frankly, the Whorns don't care.

 

Now more than ever I see the Big 12 crumbling, and I see several schools suffering for it. And they have only themselves to blame.

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I think the fact that TCU just accepted a bid to join the Big Least shows the Big 12-2 is doomed. Why would they accept that nod if they had a snowball's chance of joining the Texas 12? They clearly would not, if for no other reason than the cost in travel for their Olympic sports. Clearly TCU has information that leads them to believe they will not get into the Big 12, OR they have info leading them to believe the Big 12 will dissolve soon.

 

This deal between Texas and ESPN is huge, people. Do not discount this situation in the grand scheme of things. If Texas is guaranteed a Notre Dame deal (an automatic berth into the BCS if they're in the BCS top eight), all they have to do is schedule nine patsies and two decent teams, win their two games and demolish the patsies, they're golden with a guaranteed $15 million from ESPN and another $9 million from a BCS game - which they would not split. That's a cool $24 million without hassles per year, which they would have made four of the past six years.

 

Texas is in the driver's seat, big time. The rest of the Texettes can rattle their sabers all they want - the Whorns will laugh all the way to the bank regardless of what the others do. That's the kind of leverage Texas brings to the table in every negotiation with the dregs of this conference, and not one of the others brings the same. Without Texas the Big 12 has marquee Oklahoma, Big Money A&M (but rarely a contender, lately), Oklahoma State which is locally known but not a national draw, and a Tech squad that screwed themselves by firing Leach. Missouri is on-again/off-again, but rarely a contender to be much of anything, and KSU, KU, Baylor and ISU are afterthoughts.

 

It is beyond stupid the way Missouri, Baylor, A&M, KU, KSU and ISU have let themselves get screwed here. But the most criminally stupid school in this whole fiasco is Oklahoma, a non-AAU school whose national appeal is minimal due to academic shortcomings (they're ranked 52nd amongst Public Universities by US News & World Report). That ranking, combined with their failure to gain AAU membership, makes Oklahoma's position extremely difficult in a conference without Texas. They will not gain admission into the Big Ten (AAU membership required) and they will not be asked to join the SEC (can't remember why, but this came out with expansion talks last year). They MAY go to the Pac-12, but if they do that'll trigger Armageddon and half the remainder of the Big 12 will get left outside looking in anyway. Oklahoma needs a strong conference, while Texas doesn't. Knowing this, they still threw their lot in with the Whorns rather than their traditional brethren to the North, and frankly, the Whorns don't care.

 

Now more than ever I see the Big 12 crumbling, and I see several schools suffering for it. And they have only themselves to blame.

 

Perfect statement. Once the B12 falls apart and these schools get shafted I wont feel one ounce of pain for them. Especially after the way we got treated upon our exodus. They made their bed, now sleep in it.

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