Nebraska's magic number for the NCAA tournament

[behrens]

This is my first post, so hello everyone, and I'll save an introduction for another time.

 

Clearly there is no such thing as a "magic number" in college baseball, but there may be one statistically in the Big 10.

 

Since 2004 (an arbitrary number), no Big 10 team has been selected "at-large" with 37 wins or fewer. All teams that were selected at-large won 40+ (Minnesota 2007 [41], Ohio State 2009 [42], Michigan 2007 [42], Michigan 2005 [42], Minnesota 2009 [40]).

 

Similarly, those teams all had winning percentages .678 or greater (Minnesota 2007 [.695], Ohio State 2009 [.689], Michigan [.689], Michigan [.689], Minnesota [.678]). Purdue's 2011 and 2010 teams got snubbed with .649 and .642.

 

Whether the selection committee intended it or not, other factors such as conference standing and conference win % did not factor into the at large bids. For example, 2011 Michigan State and 2005 Illinois were snubbed despite number one finishes during conference play. 2005 Michigan made an at-large bid despite finishing fourth in conference play.

 

So if Nebraska has a "magic number" I would put it at 13 wins with a .675 winning percentage (one does not necessarily imply the other). With a stronger BIG 10, and clear front-runner in Purdue, one can certainly argue that number to be lower.

 

Of course, I would like Nebraska to win the Big 10's automatic bid, making any debate on this irrelevant.

 

So given this information (and any subsequent corrections), what are our chances?

[95huskers]

I think its tough to say what the Fighting Erstads chances are without winning the conference tourny. I think that this team may be unlike any other that if they would happen to fall in the top 2 or 3 in the standings and play well in the tournament that they should have a legitimate shot. I guess only the next couple weeks will tell. Winning 13 of the next 14 games should put us in the top 2 in conference beating Minnesota 3 times with Mich State playing Purdue this weekend I could see us moving up to 2nd. I think that CSBakersfield should be at least 2 wins if not a sweep. Then playing Creighton 1 more time should be another win and Wichita St. is a toss up.

[Comish]

I think its tough to say what the Fighting Erstads chances are without winning the conference tourny. I think that this team may be unlike any other that if they would happen to fall in the top 2 or 3 in the standings and play well in the tournament that they should have a legitimate shot. I guess only the next couple weeks will tell. Winning 13 of the next 14 games should put us in the top 2 in conference beating Minnesota 3 times with Mich State playing Purdue this weekend I could see us moving up to 2nd. I think that CSBakersfield should be at least 2 wins if not a sweep. Then playing Creighton 1 more time should be another win and Wichita St. is a toss up.

 

Regardless of whether it puts us in play for a bid or not...................if we can win 13 of the next 14 as you suggest...........I'll sign on right now and take our chances...!

[PaulCrewe]

Magic number is the number of wins needed to win the conference tourney

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Magic number is the number of wins needed to win the conference tourney

THIS!

[Blackshirts007]

This is a growing year anyways, If anyone has looked into it, purdue has 15 seniors, and about 5 of their juniors are expected to go pro this year, purdue will be a bottom feeder next year, i would love to make it this year but im afraid our only chance would be to win the CCG, ill get more excited next year

[husker_hurdler]

Its a stretch at best....but im still hoping!

[behrens]

I guess I should specify... those win totals and percentages include conference tournament games. 13 out of 14 sounds nearly impossible. The tournament could extend that denominator by up to 7 games. (You can thank the Big 10's ridiculous losers bracket for that extension.)

 

Of course, that does not necessarily mean Nebraska reaches that .678 mark.

[hskrfan4life]

Either way i'll be rooting them on game by game!

[VectorVictor]

Behrens, welcome to the board.

 

I agree that if we get north of 40 wins and finish strong (second place in season and second in tourney) we'll be likely to pick up an at-large pick.

 

And yes, winning the tourney renders this discussion moot, but Purdue is playing some excellent baseball right now--I dare say that barring a total meltdown in the home stretch and tourney, they're already a lock for post-season play. If Nebraska somehow wins the tourney, there's no way they'll exclude Purdue, and the Big 10 could have two teams go to the tourney for the first time in a while.

[huskerswrkhavoc]

We have to win the conference tourney to get in, plain and simple. The only teams with a pulse we've played this year we've gotten beat by. 0-3 vs Gonzaga, 2-2 vs Cal, 1-2 vs Purdue. Had we gone 1-2,3-1,2-1, I would say we had a chance at an at large, but we didn't. RPI is 65 and nowhere to go but down..

[Foppa]

Unfortunately, I think NU showed today why they are not going to make the tournament. That said, they do show some good flashes, so hopefully that gets Erstad and Co. on track for next year.