My Take on the Current State of Nebraska Football

[Nebula]

Well, I'm up after four hours sleep. I'm not drunk or hungover, just slept poorly and still feel disappointed and fairly irritated. I probably could have posted this under "Thing we learned so far" or something similar, but those of you poor unfortunates to be a little familiar with me know I can write some ridiculously long posts.This one will be a monster. I can't help it. So I started this to keep the Finnegans Wake out of existing threads.

 

I think a few things became relatively clear tonight, and some relevant issues were pushed towards the front burner in terms of importance, and how these will play out remain a mystery. This season is a pivotal point in the future of Nebraska football for a few reasons. I didn't believe that before tonight, but I do now. Delve into that in a minute.

 

Before anything else, a few of us (or, at least, I know this applies to me and I assume some others around here fell prey to the same emotion-over-logic reasoning that stemmed from the S.Miss game afterglow,) need to acknowledge that we saw what we wanted to see after a nice, fun opening day win while ignoring some pretty obvious, basic facts. I'm only speaking for myself, but I severely overestimated the potential of this team, while willfully ignoring some red flags that I'd been thinking (obsessing?) about since around the middle of last January. Oh well. Happens to me in April sometimes when the Cubs start out 9-3, and I get excited, but I know the team is really maybe a .500 team, or worse. Same deal here (Except Nebraska is better than a .500 team.) I had a lot of concerns coming into this season, and some areas for optimism. Here is what I think tonight tells us about what we can reasonably expect for the 2012 season.

 

We are average (an argument could be made for the starting five on O being a little above average.) in the trenches, but for different reasons on the offensive vs. the defensive side of the ball. On offense, the starting unit on the line is serviceable, and, actually, pretty efficient early in the game. They have definitely cleaned up the false starts and the holding calls, no small feat. They are opening holes, and, early on in the games, capable of giving Taylor a good deal of time in the pocket. Abdullah (who ran like a beast and looks like a Husker who could potentially finish his career as a Husker held in high esteem by all of us) averaged 7.4 ypc at one point with Heard at 7 even. That's Abdullah combing strength, shiftiness, and vision, and Heard running strong too, but it's also linemen making holes. The problem, however, is that we have basically no one to rotate in to give the front guys a rest, and the backups we do use represent a notable step back in terms of effectiveness. The loss of Klatchko (sic) and Moore were borderline catastrophic in this regard. Some people are going to say Taylor had a terrible second half. I can understand why, but I think some of those folks won't cite a major if not THE major reason for this: The O-line was gassed by the middle-to-end of the 3rd QT. Suddenly, Taylor had NO time. He got the ball, and there was someone in his face immediately. An Elway/Unitas/Montana super clone couldn't put up good numbers if they had zero protection. I think the front guys were just exhausted, and we have no talented depth returning from injury or anywhere else to fix that. Coupled with our hurry up offense, this could be a continuing problem. And I'm still not sure our starting five can handle, say, OSU's starting D-line consistently at any point in the game, fatigue or no fatigue. This must make us revisit, with serious concern...why did we lose two prominent o-linemen right before the season started? Moore is a little easier to understand with the homesickness or whatever...I guess. Klachko (sic) goes to Illinois? Something weird happened there, with both of those guys, and the consequences are not small nor the ramifications briefly lasting. That was talent and youth that fled the team. I think when we saw the offense sputter (badly) in the 2nd half, we can draw a direct line to the departure of those two, as well as a failure to develop depth and disappointing recruiting results from the beginning of the Pelni tenure. '08 and '09 are years I give a pass to the staff for, especially '08. But those would be the junior/senior guys that we're lacking this year. And our starting center played defense last year, never something you'd think was a great indication of the state of the position. (Although, it should be noted, he has played fairly well outside of consistently snapping the ball low on shotgun formations.) This problem on the line will persist for a few years I fear. You need eight legit startersand another guy or two who can step in as just a slight step back in case of injury or suspension or whatever to have an o-line that moves the needle towards Strong to Very Strong. You guys looked at our OL roster lately? Not overly encouraging...at all. So the future development of the O-line is critical. (It always is, but more so for us at this point, with the combination of depth and talent issues we're facing.) If we don't shore up that spot through this and next years classes, and the guys we still have from the last few years don't develop, we'll have serious, serious issues. Gimme the option of a decent QB, average RB's and avg WR/TEs but a world beating cast of 10 deep O-linemen, I'll take that line every, single, time. What we have is a good to very, very good QB, exceptional WR's/TE's, and a three deep set of high caliber RB's, coupled with an average to a little over average starting 5 on the line with an emaciated depth chart behind them, so the starters will wear down as games go on, and as weeks pass and little dings accumulate.

 

D line is a problem for different reasons: we're playing the same guys as last year, and those same guys are incapable of generating consistent pressure on their own. I mean, a shocking ineptitude to move the opposing o-line on an almost every-play rate. (Notable: Watching Meredith get stood up and driven out of the play just about every single snap he was out there for, and then seeing the contrast of Martin. Eric put a good hit on the Bruin QB at one point, and at least got into the backfield to apply pressure a few times. Unfortunately he was alone back there, couldn't drag down the QB, and those plays resulted in scrambles that picked up decent yards. But he actually beat an o lineman. Refreshing! Also: Ankrah makes a nice strip, and Carter gets into the backfield a few times. Still, this is an incredibly underwhelming front four...names like Carriker, Moore...a guy like Potter would be a tangible improvement from what we've got. Even Barry Turner who really shone as a freshman but never seemed to reach the highs we all hoped he'd get to...those names seem like distant memories. These guys just aren't making plays. Period. Pass plays give the opposing QB an eternity to throw, and yet AGAIN our run defense runs from bad to abysmal.) And, when we did get in the backfield, and those were rare occasions, we couldn't make the play. What we've got on the D-line is as bereft of game impacting talent as I've seen at NU in a long, long time. There is ZERO push off the lineman opposite them. Our guys are basically immobile every play, running twists isn't working, even blitzing is completely ineffective because we don't have a single d linemen who requires a double team...even WORSE, these guys rarely shed one blocker. I don't care if Matt Turman is your starter, if you get the time we're giving our opponents, you're gonna look pretty damn good, all conference team good. Stein and the other DT's are causing absolutely no disruption. Couple this with the fact that we have one LB who is serviceable and basically dependable, and capable of adding a sack or a TFL to the stat line every game in Compton. He's a nice player, basically. And that's FAR AND AWAY our best LB. Whaley is not going to be a strong piece of our unit out there. I hate to say it, he's probably a good kid. But he's a marginal LB. Anyone who watched him attempt what could loosely be called pass coverage can attest to that. And then I guess we prefer Ciante over Fisher, even if a run seems likely. Quick points on that front seven: We've gathered some skill at those positions. On the D-line I hold high hopes for McMullen, Valentine by all accounts can play, and we're looking at two true freshmen getting playing time this season. Seems like we might get guys who can actually get pressure...in a couple/few years. (And Peat, another guy who seems to have the high star bug. Hope he becomes the player we thought we got back when he signed.) For the LBs, we have some solid young prospects to feel good about. Rose and Afalvala (sic) are worth getting excited about, and Santos gets a nice review here and there. EZ-E has said on more occasion how big it was that Af made it here. He would have had basically every school in the country all over him without the academic issues. So...two years down the road, (maybe three) we might have a solid upgrade in the front seven which will make a night and day difference. Pressure will disrupt timing and accuracy of passes during pass plays, and our defense of the running game won't be that word we hear an awful lot lately: porous. Because two years running we just haven't been able to stop the run. And when you basically have a 1/10 chance of stopping a dive/off tackle whatever on third and two or three, it gets demoralizing. So, patience is a virtue, and that's all great. Still depends on guys not getting hurt, and living up the projected potential they came to Lincoln with. And that's a crap shoot often, as Spencer Long and Brooks (that 4 star WR we had) can attest to.

 

But this year it's an as-yet invisible Stein, A Randle/Rome combo that hasn't done much on the field against middling to fair talent, and a finally, hopefully, reduced-role Meredith with Martin taking more snaps. I say just turn Martin loose at this point, regardless of how well he has the playbook down. That kid gets around blockers, and he HITS, like, hits in the way you just can't teach. Like you couldn't teach Jim Brown to do what he did, he just did it. Well, whenever Martin gets a clean shot, he leaves his opponent with something they WILL remember the rest of the game. Play him, and let Meredith enjoy his scholarship and spell some guys every now and again. On the line, he literally gets shoved yards out of position 75% of the time. We have some really nice athletes in the secondary, PJ Smith being the exception that stands out as being just a tad disappointing thus far, but he still hasn't been terrible by any means. Unfortunately, if I get to build my defense and I have to have one exceptional unit, one very good unit, and one fair unit, I go D-line best, then LBs and finally DBs. We've got talent in the place where it is the least effective position. So I see some hope for the future, but this year is going to be a slog. We will get beat up on the lines, and that just basically gurantees losses. I think because the conference is so down, we may well avoid a seven win season and eke out eight. Maybe.

 

Few extra thoughts. We got out-coached tonight. I HATE "why didn't we call the TD play" guy, you know, the dude who says "it was so stupid to run that toss when a post-corner woulda blah blah genius insight..." and btw, you should get one legal punch in the face per day for that guy. Anyway...I got a problem with calling a zone-read out of the shotgun when it means your QB will receive the ball on a spot where, if he is tackled without moving, will give up a safety. That was a turning point, a HUGE turning point in this game. And that's just a straight bad call. If your backs are avg 7.0 + ypc, you get under center and hand them the ball.

 

As to the reason why this suddenly became a pivotal year: this was a bad loss in year five for Pelini. We saw some cracks that bear concern. The athletes, the high level guys, ain't on the field, and they may or may not be waiting in the wings. I thinks some are, but who knows? And that does little for us this year, regardless. That D from '08-'10 was incredible with the likes of Suh and Crick and David and Dillard and Prince and Dennard and Asante and Gomes and Hagg,,,and we don't have those guys right now, not even really close. Again...grace period is reasonable with the mass exodus of the Callahan dismissal, and a first year HC has a hard sell to make, especially considering the level we had fallen to at the end of the Pedey years. But the onus is now clearly on Pelini and his staff of guys he picked, many of whom have highly prominent positions and are, in effect, learning on the job. (Beck and Pap, basically.) Pap has shown his merit as a recruiter. But if the athlete level doesn't rise, like, NOW, and if the quality guys we've brought in don't pan out, there are going to be legitimate grumbles of dissension from people who get listened to. (Meaning, the folks who know Paul very well and who give the real cash.)

 

And Bo needs to play the PR game a bit this year. I know it's not his cup of tea, and frankly, if we're winning I don't really care how standoffish he is with the media wonks. But this will very likely be his poorest team fielded (outside of '08 maybe.) The press WILL ask questions that are not overly pleasant. And if we couple what I sincerely believe will be a season with a likely/very possible loss(es) to Mich, Mich State, Osu, and another flukey Iowa/NW loss type game, Bo is going to have to field the types of queries that make veins throb on his face. If he handles that poorly, that could really add an element of malaise to the program. He needs to sell why '13. '14 and beyond are legit Conf champ potential years. He's going to need to, again, play the game by being a little self-effacing at times and saying "yeah, in retrospect, bad call." Rather than answering with something along the lines of "You saw it. What do you think?" Which really means, stupid question, and you're an idiot for asking. Again....we're winning, I don't care. But losing to a middling UCLA game means the product is taking a hit. He can salvage some of that by greasing the ink stained wretches, or he can make things worse by being petulant and combative. I didn't think either of these two issues would rise to a level that could make this a turning point season for where NU football goes in the near future, but I really do now.

 

This is going to be a long year. We're gonna see bad tackling out of the front seven, we're gonna see QB's have literally 7 seconds to throw a pass, and now I think we'll see fatigue become an issue with an o-line that, starter wise anyhow, deserves acknowledgment so far as an improved unit. But that lack of depth and skill behind the five really hurts us. And is why, I think, Taylor looks like he took 7 xanax at halftime. He had NO time. Guys were just streaming in right at him immediately after the snap.

 

And I was (and still am) banking on the offense to rescue a few games for us. We couldn't do it tonight, and it should be said, the D did step up when the offense just died. And they died because the line is the engine for the whole offensive machine. And guys, we're lacking parts for that engine, two of whom should really probably still be on the team. Esp Kllachko (sic?) to Illinois...wtf? You can't lose a guy like that....and a starter bails immediately? Goes back to Florida? Murders us. Look at our OL, with the best guys being ones who would have been hard pressed to see the field ten or fifteen years ago now the lynchpins who are Jr. and Sr. And after that? Lookin awfully thin.

 

I know this is INSANELY long, but my mind has been racing ever since I very forcefully pressed the off button on my TV the SECOND that game was over. Quick last points: Guys get a hitch in their golf or baseball swing all the time. Maher has a mental/physical hitch going on this year. He hit some big field goals, cannot and would not take that away from him. But his punts REALLY hurt us field position wise, which may have been one the top two or three deciding factors in tonight's game. And sometimes once the mental barrier is established, you can't shed it. We've been spoiled beyond spoiled when it comes to this area, so I'm not banging on Maher. He's good. But keep an eye on him. I'm a little worried on that end.

 

FINALLY: One way of looking at this is, at least we know what kind of team we have now. We won't sneak into Columbus at 4-0 and think we're stronger than we are. After tonight, we all should know we ain't winning 10 games. Again, I'm of the patient (albeit emotional) subset of fan. I think Pelini inherited a 30 acre tire fire, and has managed to quell a good portion of the blaze and started to rebuild pretty solidly. But this IS the season to get the young kids on the field. This day in age, put Armstrong out there. I grow more and more convinced that Carnes will never play a significant role, and Kellogg is a nice kid but snaps are wasted on him. With Stanton on board, sounds radical or foolhardy maybe, but burn the shirt. Play him a TON against Minnesota, even early like Ark or ID state. Santos, Zaire, Charles Jackson, all those types of guys too. And burn those shirts at will (save for Westerkamp. We are so loaded at WR its almost hard to believe. Anybody look at Allen (#7)? Kid has a a man's body as a rs frosh. But play the kids, get Valnetine reps, play Rome when maybe you would have had Stein or Randle out there. Anyone who thinks we're playing better then 8 win ball is a helluva optimist, and over 9 win ball is maybe a little delusional. (j/k...well.... )

 

If you read to the end, you should get a prize. Forgive my long winded diatribe. I haven't posted since before the S. Miss game, and I've had an awful lot of NU related things on my mind. Lastly: Recognition to skers. I'm not searching for sh#t, I believe he posted something along the lines of "next week we'll realize we're not nearly as good as we think we are. (In the post S. Miss game.) Dead on.

[The Dude]

Good point.

[lo country]

Great post. I would also add we have a glaring issue trying to run this 2 gap without the horses up front. Our secondary has the talent to be scary good.

 

After last night, I would also look at our strength and conditioning. You always hear teams talk about "so and so will be better after another year with the S&C", but or DL was getting owned by true fresh. Disappointing to say the least. Our guys should have feasted on them.

 

I agree burn the RS. The starters we have now at LB and DL are not the future. get the young kids in there and give them reps. Get them ready for conference play and use the likes of Cam, Stein, Compton, Whaley etc to spell them.

[AFhusker]

It looks like after 4 years, Bo has recruited us back to the 2007 defense. But the main difference was that at least the 2007 defense had talent, they just didn't care because they hated their coaches. (which was proven with what Bo was able to get out of them once they started to play for a coach they liked) This defense minus a few guys in the secondary has MAC level talent, not to mention coaching. And people wonder what would have happened if Bo and Frank were still here in 2004, well you are seeing it, that team also had some great secondary talent, but no DL, they only had 3 DL on the team. And if you are criticizing TMart, then do you really think that Joe Daily would be better? He was the only scholarship QB on the team. I'll take TMart any day of the week and twice on Sunday's over that guy.

 

If Bo keeps on blaming the players, he will lose this team and it will be 2007 all over again. He needs to man up and take responsibility or he will end up like Callahan.

[tschu]

Pretty spot-on I thought. Totally agree about the O-line looking gassed after awhile; however they did play very well in the first half. That defensive line and LB corps are just so incredibly weak and slow-looking. Definitely the two weak points of this team. 653 yards? Unbelievable.

[Nebula]

Good point.

You actually found a good one in that tome? I'd ask where, but then I'd have to wade through it. And who wants to read all of that rambling gibberish? I certainly do NOT.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Pretty spot-on I thought. Totally agree about the O-line looking gassed after awhile; however they did play very well in the first half. That defensive line and LB corps are just so incredibly weak and slow-looking. Definitely the two weak points of this team. 653 yards? Unbelievable.

Yes, and no matter how good our secondary is, we're screwed because people will run on us and get into the upper levels without much effort.

[FLU]

I'll say it again: until we are willing to open up the pocketbook and hire an established big name coach that kids actually want to play for, things aren't going to change. Bo has reached his peak as a head coach. Recruiting = championships. LSU, Bama, etc. consistently rank in the Top 5 for recruiting and look where they end up. We usually finish #20-#25 in recruiting and look where we end up. Bo does not have a good reputation nationally; people think he's crazy/a loose cannon. I personally like Bo, and thought he was a good hire, but the lack of defense baffles me, and the same mistakes continue season after season.

 

I just want my Huskers back.

[carlfense]

Great post Nebula. +1.

 

Few extra thoughts. We got out-coached tonight. I HATE "why didn't we call the TD play" guy, you know, the dude who says "it was so stupid to run that toss when a post-corner woulda blah blah genius insight..." and btw, you should get one legal punch in the face per day for that guy. Anyway...I got a problem with calling a zone-read out of the shotgun when it means your QB will receive the ball on a spot where, if he is tackled without moving, will give up a safety. That was a turning point, a HUGE turning point in this game. And that's just a straight bad call. If your backs are avg 7.0 + ypc, you get under center and hand them the ball.

I hate this guy too . . . but I was doing a lot of cursing about a zone read mesh point in the end zone.

['SkersRule]

I'll say it again: until we are willing to open up the pocketbook and hire an established big name coach that kids actually want to play for, things aren't going to change. Bo has reached his peak as a head coach. Recruiting = championships. LSU, Bama, etc. consistently rank in the Top 5 for recruiting and look where they end up. We usually finish #20-#25 in recruiting and look where we end up. Bo does not have a good reputation nationally; people think he's crazy/a loose cannon. I personally like Bo, and thought he was a good hire, but the lack of defense baffles me, and the same mistakes continue season after season.

 

I just want my Huskers back.

 

You are 100% wrong regarding Bo's reputation especially in coaching circles.

 

You are 100% right regarding our lack of defense and awful DL.

[carlfense]

You are 100% right regarding our lack of defense and awful DL.

I wish that you had been right about our defense.

[Norhusker]

I agree that we need to open up many of the positions to the younger guys. Many of last years starters on defense are not getting it done. The front 4 were shockingly bad. Maybe keep Ankrah and put in some youg guys at the other spots. The way I see it is that it can't make much of a difference right now anyway and we build some experience for next year.

[krc1995]

I read the whole thing and agree with everything. I'm not sure if you mentioned it, but Ione thing that has really, really improved is penalties. Martin must start from now on. Ciante must start. I also really agree with being out coached. It's not that Bo is a bad coach, I think he is a hell of a coach and is the guy that will lead this team to some fine victories, but he seems very stubborn and set in his ways about a few things that he needs to change. I am not an insider, but I am under the impression that he gives full reigns to his assistants. This is a really good leadership strategies, but I don't know if it works well with this group of assistants. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

[Nebula]

Too long and not enough paragraphs. Stopped reading after the first few sentences.

 

 

There's a thing called an 'Enter' button. After you summarize a single thought, usually 3-5 sentences worth, you should try using it.

Oh...god...no...THE devnet stopped reading after the first couple sentences???

 

I do not see a reason to continue to this existence.

 

*gunshot

 

There is a thing called "manage ignore prefs." Feel free to block every single post I contribute, slugger.

[T_O_Bull]

I'll say it again: until we are willing to open up the pocketbook and hire an established big name coach that kids actually want to play for, things aren't going to change. Bo has reached his peak as a head coach. Recruiting = championships. LSU, Bama, etc. consistently rank in the Top 5 for recruiting and look where they end up. We usually finish #20-#25 in recruiting and look where we end up. Bo does not have a good reputation nationally; people think he's crazy/a loose cannon. I personally like Bo, and thought he was a good hire, but the lack of defense baffles me, and the same mistakes continue season after season.

 

I just want my Huskers back.

 

You are 100% wrong regarding Bo's reputation especially in coaching circles.

 

You are 100% right regarding our lack of defense and awful DL.

The NCAA just hasn't cought them cheating yet.

T_O_B

G>B>R