Finishing Strong - the last three games

[knapplc]

Well, here we are again. For the third time in the last four years, Nebraska controls its own destiny late in the season, leading their division and only needing to win out to earn their way into the conference championship game.

 

As I predicted in my earlier thread, the Legends Division has a little more clarity rounding the fourth turn:

 

Team - Record (Conference)

Nebraska - 7-2 (4-1)

Michigan - 6-3 (4-1)

Northwestern - 7-2 (3-2)

Iowa - 4-5 (2-3)

Michigan State - 5-5 (2-4)

Minnesota - 5-4 (1-4)

 

Iowa did lose to Indiana, albeit in far less of a blowout fashion than I predicted. We beat Sparty, even though it looked like we were done, down by double digits with 7:30 to go in the game. Again. Sparty and Minny are all but eliminated from the Legends chase, Northwestern needs Michigan and Nebraska to lose out and must win their remaining games in order to have a shot, Michigan needs to win out, or have two Nebraska losses in their final three games, and Nebraska basically has to win two of the next three, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State in The Game, and we're going to Indy.

 

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Nebraska's Road to Indianapolis:

 

Nebraska faces the downhill portion of their schedule, having already played the top three teams in the Leaders Division and two of the top three in the Legends (sans Nebraska). In that span we've gone 4-1 against opponents with a combined record of 34-13 (.723 winning percentage).

 

We now face a remaining schedule of opponents whose combined record is 15-12 (.556). Only Northwestern faces an easier schedule than the Huskers down the stretch, but we have the tiebreaker on them for essentially a two-game lead - but more on them in a moment.

 

Nebraska plays:

 

Penn State - 6-3

Minnesota - 5-4

Iowa - 4-5

 

Our only true remaining test is Penn State. We head into this game with what amounts to the same situation we faced when we hosted Sparty last year: We must stop or slow down a pocket passer and the conference's #1 wide receiver. However, there are some glaring differences in the matchups: Matt McGloin is no Kirk Cousins. Allen Robinson is no B.J. Cunningham. Zach Zwinak is no Le'Veon Bell. And Penn State's defense isn't a shadow of 2011 Sparty's defense.

 

Last year, heading into the Sparty game, we were ranked in the top five in the Big Ten in every major offensive statistic with the exception of passing. This year we're #1 in the Big Ten in three of the four major offensive statistics (the Buckeyes eclipsed us this week in Scoring Offense) - including passing offense. Last year, Sparty's defense was in the top three in every major statistical category in the conference, and was #1 in Rush Defense and Total Defense. This year Penn State doesn't lead in any major statistic (although Sparty, whom we just beat on the road, leads in two).

 

Certainly this game is no gimme. But it isn't worthy of panic-mode. This is no Wisconsin; this is a team designed almost specifically to fall victim to Bo's defense. All we have to do is our job - do the homework, know the assignments, and play within the game - and we should win. From there it's downhill for the Huskers.

 

As before, I'm not going to go into a huge statistical analysis of Minnesota. This is the kind of team we should be brushing aside at this point. If we don't, or can't, we don't belong in a conference championship game.

 

Iowa's chances of beating Nebraska could be directly correlated to the number of posts from visiting Iowa fans here boasting about their team, how they're statistically equivalent to Nebraska, etc. - ie., there is zero noise coming from them, and everyone knows why. Vandenberg will become the third double inductee into Bo Pelini's Quarterback Graveyard, and it should be a double-digit win.

 

 

On to Michigan.

 

The Wolverines are still without the services of one Dennard "Shoelace" Robinson, hurt late in the first half in Lincoln during Nebraska's 23-9 victory. They are tied with Nebraska at 4-1 in the division, but unlike Nebraska they have yet to play the teeth of their schedule. While the Huskers have already navigated the minefield of top teams in both divisions, the Wolverines still must play 7-2 Northwestern and 10-0 Ohio State. Michigan has, by far, the toughest road to a division title remaining. They host Northwestern and Iowa, then must travel to The Shoe to face the nation's only 10-0 team (likely to be 12-0 at that point) Ohio State. If Michigan wins that game, with or without Mr. Robinson, they'll still need a Nebraska loss to make it to Indianapolis.

 

Northwestern's chances of making the title game rest on lots of luck and a really tough game, on the road, against Michigan this weekend. A loss in this game and they're eliminated from the division race. Even with a win this weekend, the Wildcats need two Husker losses in the next three weeks to have a prayer - and that's very unlikely to happen. When you have a team down by 12 points, at home, with 7:30 left to play, you put them away. When you don't, you don't get to win your conference.

 

Sparty has been eliminated from the Legends race with their loss to Nebraska. They'll have a Bye week this weekend to stew over what might have been, then with two games remaining, they cannot beat either Nebraska or Michigan if both teams lose the remainder of their games. If that were to happen Sparty, the Wolverines and the Huskers would all be 4-4, but both Nebraska and Michigan hold the tiebreaker over Sparty, so... sucks to be you. Thanks, Johnny Adams!

 

There are technicalities which say that Iowa and Minnesota are still alive for the Legends crown. We'll not be trifling with those technicalities.

 

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So, briefly, who are we likely to face from the Leaders Division? As covered last time, both Penn State and Ohio State are banned from post-season play. Purdue and Illinois, at 0-5 in the conference, are both eliminated from contention. That leaves an intriguing race between Wisconsin, whom Nebraska defeated 30-27 five weeks ago, and Indiana, whose 2-3 conference record isn't enough to eliminate them just yet.

 

Wiscy and the Hoosiers play what turns out to be a the Leaders Division deciding game this weekend. The two-time defending Big Ten conference champions have an anemic offense and a decent defense, but their biggest weakness on defense just happens to be Indiana's strength - the forward pass. The Hoosiers are tops in the conference in Passing offense, second in Total Offense and third in Scoring Offense. The game is in Bloomington, and two of Wiscy's three losses have come on the road. Indiana has, in my opinion, a puncher's chance to win this game, especially if Montayy Ball can't get going. If he runs strong, the Badgers likely win. If not...

 

Presuming a Badgers victory, they win the Leaders division by default, because even if they lose to Penn State and Ohio State, they'd have the tiebreaker over Indiana if they win out, and both would finish 4-4.

 

However, if Indiana can pull off the upset, their remaining schedule is more favorable than Wiscy's. The Hoosiers face Penn State and Purdue to finish out the season. Wisconsin is unlikely to beat Ohio State unless the Buckeyes are looking ahead to The Game against Michigan, and Penn State is stout enough on defense to slow down Ball, and as mentioned, the Nittany Lions have an adequate passing attack. Now, both of Indiana's games are on the road, at Happy Valley and at West Lafayette. However, Purdue has been awful in conference play and playing an away game in your home state usually means you'll have plenty of fans in the stands. Presuming Indiana is playing for a shot at the division championship, I'd imagine there will be plenty of fans traveling to Ross-Ade Stadium.

 

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So, that's where we sit. Likely we'll find out that the Leaders representative will be Wisconsin this weekend. If we beat Penn State we'll most likely be the Legends representative.

 

And then we'll play, most likely, Wisconsin for the third time in two years. We just did that in 2010/2011, when we took two of three from Washington. Let's hope that, if we make it to Indianapolis, we don't drop the rubber game. This fall doesn't belong to Ball. It belongs to T-Magic and the Huskers.

[QMany]

Love these thorough updates. Thank you!

[Undone]

Agreed, these posts are great, Knapp.

 

Biggest thing I'd like to see in our three remaining games: No more coming out flat on our first couple of offensive drives, especially the 3 & outs on our first drive. That's almost becoming a signature of ours. Let's *at least* control field position in the first quarter.

 

If we do that, we should have no trouble beating the Nittany Pussies by two touchdowns.

[HuskerNationNick]

It will be Nebraska vs Wisconsin/Indiana. I don't see Indiana getting past Wisky, but who knows anymore, especially with Joe Stave being out.

 

We have the talent to make it to the Rose Bowl, and we have the talent to beat whoever we face in the Rose Bowl, but it comes down to execution. I know many people hate that word, but its true. You don't execute a play, you either commit a turnover, leave points on the field, or you allow your opponent to put points on the scoreboard.

 

Easiest way to blow through Penn State, is have someone block Michael Mauti. Take out their best tackler, your chances of yards are even greater.

 

Great write-up knapp. Enjoyed it!

[Count 'Bility]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

[robsker]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

 

Well... if their confidence is high... there is a problem. They should not have confidence. They should have a chip on their shoulder essentially saying "we have not been anywhere near as good as we should be and we have proven nothing... we have to prove to the world that we are a conference championship caliber team... we have been sloppy and fortunate.. and have shown spirit and no quit... but otherwise we have shown nothing." They have proven nothing and have no reason for confidence. Lets hope they realize that.

They do, however, have every reason to work hard to prove something...

[QMany]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

 

Well... if their confidence is high... there is a problem. They should not have confidence. They should have a chip on their shoulder essentially saying "we have not been anywhere near as good as we should be and we have proven nothing... we have to prove to the world that we are a conference championship caliber team... we have been sloppy and fortunate.. and have shown spirit and no quit... but otherwise we have shown nothing." They have proven nothing and have no reason for confidence. Lets hope they realize that.

They do, however, have every reason to work hard to prove something...

 

[Count 'Bility]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

 

Well... if their confidence is high... there is a problem. They should not have confidence. They should have a chip on their shoulder essentially saying "we have not been anywhere near as good as we should be and we have proven nothing... we have to prove to the world that we are a conference championship caliber team... we have been sloppy and fortunate.. and have shown spirit and no quit... but otherwise we have shown nothing." They have proven nothing and have no reason for confidence. Lets hope they realize that.

They do, however, have every reason to work hard to prove something...

Sorry, but I hope they ARE confident. To each their own I guess.

[kchusker_chris]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

brink of explosion, brink of implosion. one will happen shortly - because surely we can't continue down this same path for the rest of the season....

[robsker]

I do not advocate lack of confidence... but they should not be confident either...

 

What I mean is this... confidence comes from having a string of impressive victories where you have played well, played intensely, played against good teams who are also playing well... and you keep winning. NU has done none of these things. They should not think they have accomplished virtually anything... because they have not. They have shown grit and toughness... and that is good. But they still have not played a solid complete game against a team that played well all year.

 

Yet... they find themselves in a position to potentially win a championship in the B1G --- they should be fired up to prove that they are worthy of winning a championship.

 

An aside... but one that provides context. I live in Pac12 country and the four football fans who have commented to me (knowing I am a Husker fan) all contend that NU would not fare well (actually would have little to chance) against Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford or USC --- were they to play in a bowl game. The point... apart from hardcore Huskers fans like us... NU has not convinced essentially anyone that they are really any good.

 

So... the team needs to realize that confidence is not the response... anger, a chip on their shoulders and determination to prove that they are a competitive team... that is what they need.

 

If they think they have proven anything (yet)... they are sadly mistaken.

[kchusker_chris]

An aside... but one that provides context. I live in Pac12 country and the four football fans who have commented to me (knowing I am a Husker fan) all contend that NU would not fare well (actually would have little to chance) against Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford or USC --- were they to play in a bowl game. The point... apart from hardcore Huskers fans like us... NU has not convinced essentially anyone that they are really any good.

agree w/ 3 out of the 4. I like our defense against Barkley on a nuetral field though

[QMany]

I do not advocate lack of confidence... but they should not be confident either...

 

What I mean is this... confidence comes from having a string of impressive victories where you have played well, played intensely, played against good teams who are also playing well... and you keep winning. NU has done none of these things. They should not think they have accomplished virtually anything... because they have not. They have shown grit and toughness... and that is good. But they still have not played a solid complete game against a team that played well all year.

 

Yet... they find themselves in a position to potentially win a championship in the B1G --- they should be fired up to prove that they are worthy of winning a championship.

 

An aside... but one that provides context. I live in Pac12 country and the four football fans who have commented to me (knowing I am a Husker fan) all contend that NU would not fare well (actually would have little to chance) against Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford or USC --- were they to play in a bowl game. The point... apart from hardcore Huskers fans like us... NU has not convinced essentially anyone that they are really any good.

 

So... the team needs to realize that confidence is not the response... anger, a chip on their shoulders and determination to prove that they are a competitive team... that is what they need.

 

If they think they have proven anything (yet)... they are sadly mistaken.

 

Good thing Oregon State, Stanford, and USC have not essentially convinced anyone that they are really any good, either. I would like our chances against any of them, especially with 5 weeks to prepare.

 

For example, Oregon State AND Stanford will end the year with AT LEAST a loss to an undefeated Top-5 team and a currently 5-4 Washington team. We will probably end with a loss to an undefeated Top-5 team and a currently 7-2 UCLA. We will have also have won our conference, they will finish 2+ losses out of winning their division. They don't scare me.

[Hoosker]

We are on the verge of a complete performance (MSU last year) against a capable opponent. This is our last chance other than the post season to accomplish that.

 

I want to see Ameer have a breakout game and I wouldn't mind seeing Taylor bring up those passing numbers that have been slipping lately. Either one would be fine with me.

 

I can't see us dropping one to Minny or Iowa, but I can definitely see us losing this one and making it harder on ourselves down the stretch. We have been known to do that...

 

The defense needs to step up and play a big game this week. It would go a long way knowing that the Blackshirts cleaned up what we needed to against a quality opponent before the B1G Championship.

[Count 'Bility]

This team is on the brink of explosion. We can all feel it. You know their confidence has to be very high right now. Not only from the come from behind wins, but all the bullsh#t (self-inflicted and not) that we have to through to do so. No evidence to suggest it could happen anytime soon, but if it does, look out Big 10, cuz here we come.

brink of explosion, brink of implosion. one will happen shortly - because surely we can't continue down this same path for the rest of the season....

I know. Because there's no way i could be around to see it.

[Husker_x]

So, basically, as far as Nebraska is concerned, the most important thing is for Michigan to keep losing. The more they lose, the better. I see no way we drop games to Iowa and Minnesota. Penn State, as stated, is not a gimme, but I like our chances at home. I like our secondary. Hang onto the rock and we win this.

 

It's a little exhausting saying it every week, but it's hard to peg wins when the team is as careless with the football as it is. This team is not even a shadow of its potential--you're just waiting for the light to flicker fully on, and we're headed for the BCS. It's possible. It's what should happen. But, for whatever reason, I can't convince myself it will happen. Too many mistakes too consistently. Waiting for the other shoe to drop. That sort of thing.