The Road Ahead - Final 1/3 of the Season

[knapplc]

What a difference a couple of games make. Two games ago Nebraska limped home from Columbus, having been routed 63-38 on national television. It was a humbling loss, and Bo Pelini challenged his team - you can either give in or get to work.

 

It was particularly grim for the defense. Nationally, after two road debacles against UCLA and Ohio State, the defense's rankings in the four major stats categories were:

 

Rushing defense - 91

Pass eff. defense - 28

Total defense - 46

Scoring defense - 74

 

The Huskers were getting gashed in the air and on the ground and surrendering points in bunches. No signs pointed to things getting better, either, with two high-powered offenses due up in Northwestern and Michigan - both featuring Nebraska's traditional Achilles' heel, the Mobile Quarterback.

 

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Lost Season. The Blackshirts arrived.

 

In the last two games, Nebraska has surrendered 301 and 188 yards, and 85 of those yards came on one busted run play. Our much-maligned defense got fierce, and our overall rankings climbed dramatically:

 

Rushing defense - 82

Pass eff. defense - 9

Total defense - 26

Scoring defense - 55

 

While it may be impossible to get every one of those rankings in the top 50 nationally by season's end, if the Blackshirts continue to play aggressive, attacking defense, it's not unlikely. And if these guys don't rest on their laurels, they'll be playing an extra game in Indianapolis.

 

Let's take a look at our upcoming opponents, starting with this week's game in East Lansing:

 

 

Michigan State

 

Sparty enters this game in a state of flux. They are, in many ways, 2009 Nebraska - a stout defense and a woeful offense. The Spartans lead the Big Ten in Rushing Defense, Total Defense and Scoring Defense. They are 3rd in Pass Efficiency Defense. This team will present a tremendous challenge to Nebraska's offense, and Spartan Stadium will be packed with 75,000 screaming fans. In many ways this game should resemble last year's: low-scoring, grinding drives, big defensive stops, and a low score.

 

The Blackshirts are playing inspired defense, but they'll need to be more sound than inspired this week. Sparty's offensive line has suffered through some injuries and the Michigan State offense is not good. They rank very low in every major national category:

 

Rushing offense - 90

Pass efficiency - 106

Total offense - 96

Scoring offense - 108

 

This plays well into the hands of our defense. An opportunistic, fundamentally sound defense should be able to keep this Spartan offense from making too much noise. If the offense can grind out a couple of scoring drives, that may be all Nebraska needs to win this game.

 

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Presuming we beat Sparty - and that's anything but a given with their defense - the Legends Division should look like this at the end of next weekend:

 

Team - Record (Conference)

 

Nebraska - 7-2 (4-1)

Michigan - 6-3 (4-1)

Northwestern - 7-2 (3-2)

Iowa - 4-5 (2-3)

Michigan State - 5-5 (2-4)

Minnesota - 5-4 (1-4)

 

Nebraska plays Sparty this weekend, and ought to win. Michigan plays Minnesota and ought to win. Northwestern has a bye, and Iowa will most likely get beaten (and thoroughly beaten at that) by Indiana.

 

If this plays out, we'll have a one-game lead over NW and a tie with Michigan, but we have the tiebreaker. We also own the tiebreaker against NW, so if we lose a game and they win out, we'll still go to Indy. Iowa, Sparty and Minny are out of the Legends race, barring Old-Testament miracle type circumstances. Michigan could still pose a problem, but remember - they have to play Ohio State in The Game on 11/24, and the game is at The Shoe. Even if Denard Robinson can shake someone's hand by the time that game rolls around, I'm seeing that as a Buckeye win.

 

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Continuing on with our quick look at the remaining conference slate:

 

Penn State

 

I'm hearing people preach caution about Penn State, and saying that they're pretty good - a team to watch out for. I'm not seeing it. Their offense is... not good:

 

Rushing Offense - 85

Passing Efficiency - 61

Total Offense - 62

Scoring Offense - 65

 

This game is at home, likely on national TV, perhaps a night game on ESPN, and lest anyone thinks this Penn State team is going to sneak out of here with a win, this is the same PSU team that lost to the Fightin' Franks at Happy Valley and lost to Virginia, whose only other win was against D1AA Richmond. Penn State is no more scary on defense than they are on offense, and in fact they are worse than Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan, teams we averaged 30 points a game against.

 

Minnesota

 

I'm not going to bother with stats for Minnesota. Marqueis Gray has shifted to Wide Receiver, but Philip Nelson, a Freshman, has taken over the QB spot. He's no slouch and he has mobility, but he's still a Freshman, and as we saw Saturday night, Freshmen QBs playing in front of the Nebraska throng tend not to fare too well. Defensively Minny has been stout against the pass, but porous against the run. This shouldn't be much of a game.

 

Iowa

 

Ahhh, the Hawkeyes. Remember a couple of years ago, after Nebraska had announced it was joining the Big Ten, and all of our friends across the river came to HuskerBoard in droves, telling us we were finally going to find out what it was like playing football in a real conference? Remember how they said that, finally, we could no longer "duck" them, and "had to" play them every year now? I remember. I remember and I laugh and laugh and laugh. Whither goest though, O Iowegians? Where are the bold predictions, the confident proclamations, the declarations of Iowegian/Nebraskan equality? Those records over the last ten years... what do they mean this year? Notta lot, huh?

 

Iowa is going to be a fun game. I can't go to Iowa City, but I'd love to see half that stadium painted red. We'll paint their field red with Vandenberg's bloody nose, and walk out of Kinnick with a double-digit win. And there will be much rejoicing.

 

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OK, so let's say I'm not just dreaming. Let's say the defense has woken up, let's say the offense keeps churning (and Beck doesn't try to get too clever too often and just goes with what works), and let's say we make it to the Big Ten Championship. Who do we face?

 

It's a bit of a mystery at this point. The Leaders Division stacks up like this right now:

 

 

Team - Record (Conference)

Ohio State - banned from post-season play (NCAA probation)

Penn State - banned from post-season play (NCAA probation)

Wisconsin - 6-3 (3-2)

Indiana - 3-5 (1-3)

Purdue - 3-5 (0-4)

Illinois - 2-6 (0-4)

 

 

You've got Wisky with a two-game lead over any team that matters, but a remaining schedule consisting of Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State. None of these are gimme wins for the Badgers, who just lost their starting QB for the season and will have to go back to Plan A, I mean Plan B, I mean Plan A - whatever - the mercenary, Danny O'Brien, who led the Badgers on their final drive in Lincoln and earned a whopping 21 yards and a fumbled handoff to seal the win for Nebraska.

 

Mind you, that game in Lincoln featured a near-catastrophic collapse early by the Huskers. If we don't bumble around for the first 40 minutes of that game, it wouldn't have been much of a contest. I'm betting, given the chance at redemption, the Huskers will play a much cleaner game against Wisky in the conference championship game, and pull out the win. And then it's off to a BCS bowl for the first time in a gazillion years.

 

 

But wait - there's just one issue here. Indiana is scoring points in droves the last few games, averaging 34 points a game over their last six games. Yes, five of those were losses, but they scored those points against Ohio State, Michigan State and Northwestern. In fact, they equaled or exceeded Nebraska's points against OSU and NW. Their final four games are against Iowa (I'm predicting a win), Wisky (a win gives them the tiebreaker over the Badgers), Penn State (whose offense is woeful) and Purdue, who can't play offense or defense.

 

If Indiana wins three of their last four, including a win over Wisky, they could win the Leaders division. All it would take is Wisconsin to crap the bed against Indiana and lose to Ohio State - both real possibilities - and we could be seeing someone we thought we'd never see in the championship game.

 

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Whatever happens, November figures to be an awfully fun time in the Big Ten. Nebraska controls its own fate for the conference championship - an awfully nice luxury at this point in the season.

 

Let's just hope we don't squander this opportunity. The Blackshirts are back. If they play like Blackshirts.... we've got a shot at the title.

[Undone]

...this is the same PSU team that lost to the Fightin' Franks at Happy Valley...

 

lol, the Fightin' Franks.

 

That's amazing.

[QMany]

Penn State

 

I'm hearing people preach caution about Penn State, and saying that they're pretty good - a team to watch out for. I'm not seeing it. Their offense is... not good:

 

Rushing Offense - 85

Passing Efficiency - 61

Total Offense - 62

Scoring Offense - 65

 

This game is at home, likely on national TV, perhaps a night game on ESPN, and lest anyone thinks this Penn State team is going to sneak out of here with a win, this is the same PSU team that lost to the Fightin' Franks at Happy Valley and lost to Virginia, whose only other win was against D1AA Richmond. Penn State is no more scary on defense than they are on offense, and in fact they are worse than Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan, teams we averaged 30 points a game against.

 

 

What is the rule on this now? I know the B1G used to have no night games in November, but I remember them saying something about being more open about the possibility now.

 

Great write up!

[Blackshirts007]

Hell Indiana could go 2-2 if they beat wisky and wisky loses to psu and osu

[caveman99]

Great run down Knapp, I will quibble with a few of your points though. First Michigan at Minnesota, if D. Rob can't play then that game could be close. Minnesota is improved and scrappy and I don't think the Michigan back up QB is ready for prime time.

 

Second is the PSU game. PSU has been a much better team since UVA. They are 4-1 since then only losing to OSU. It won't be a cakewalk at all, but McGloin is turnover prone so that helps. I think the Huskers win, but it isn't a gimmie imo.

[knapplc]

The way Nebraska plays, no game is really a gimme anymore. But Penn State has been winning with smoke and mirrors. They've the #73 schedule in the nation and they're 5-3 against it. Their three conference wins are against Illinois, Northwestern and Iowa. The Illini and Hawkeyes are bad. The Northwestern game was a good win, but this isn't last year's Northwestern team, either. Ohio State gave them two late TDs to make that game respectable, but they were never in any danger of losing that game.

 

We should be able to score early and often on this Penn State team. Granted, this is Nebraska, but if we're going to Indianapolis, that's what we'll have to do.

[QMany]

Just a heads up, Penn St. game just got set for 2:30 PM.

[Comish]

I do believe it will take a MAJOR collapse for us NOT to get to the championship.

As pointed out, even a stumble of one game will be mitigated by Ohio St beating Michigan.

 

Either Wisky or Indiana in INDY sends us to the Rose Bowl (which some of us still believed possible AFTER Ohio St, but we were few and far between).

 

The REWARD (??) in Pasadena is to face what I believe is the worst possible match-up for us in Oregon. (unless KState and the Domers falter).

[QMany]

I do believe it will take a MAJOR collapse for us NOT to get to the championship.

As pointed out, even a stumble of one game will be mitigated by Ohio St beating Michigan.

 

Either Wisky or Indiana in INDY sends us to the Rose Bowl (which some of us still believed possible AFTER Ohio St, but we were few and far between).

 

The REWARD (??) in Pasadena is to face what I believe is the worst possible match-up for us in Oregon. (unless KState and the Domers falter).

 

The way Kirk and the ESPN cronies were talking, Oregon is set up perfectly. They will only go up in the computer rankings, and being #2 in the polls, they "should" end up being #2 at the end of the year and play Bama.

[BIG ERN]

As I posted after the horrific OSU loss. If we beat NW and Mich we are going to win the division. Period. IMO we can still drop one more game and still win the Legends because we have the tie-breaker over NW and Mich. Without Robinson Mich can lose any game, and they WON'T go into Columbus and win at the end of the year regardless of their QB. We are going to face Wiscy again, and play where we first lost. PASADENA

 

First time since 99' we will have won a damn conference title. FINALLY!

 

[junior4949]

The only concerning thing to me is how we're swapping wins for losses last year and a loss for a win last year. Last year, we lost to Wisconsin; Michigan; and Northwestern. This year, we've beat those three. Last year, we beat Ohio State. This year, they took us behind the shed. I'm more than a little concerned about Michigan State and Penn State for this reason.

[HuskerFowler]

As I posted after the horrific OSU loss. If we beat NW and Mich we are going to win the division. Period. IMO we can still drop one more game and still win the Legends because we have the tie-breaker over NW and Mich. Without Robinson Mich can lose any game, and they WON'T go into Columbus and win at the end of the year regardless of their QB. We are going to face Wiscy again, and play where we first lost. PASADENA

 

First time since 99' we will have won a damn conference title. FINALLY!

 

 

 

Hey now, dont count your chickens

[knapplc]

The only concerning thing to me is how we're swapping wins for losses last year and a loss for a win last year. Last year, we lost to Wisconsin; Michigan; and Northwestern. This year, we've beat those three. Last year, we beat Ohio State. This year, they took us behind the shed. I'm more than a little concerned about Michigan State and Penn State for this reason.

 

There's no logical reason why we should lose those games simply because we flipped around wins/losses to Wisky, OSU and Michigan. We are better overall than Penn State and Sparty. We should win those games. Nebraska being Nebraska, that's not a guarantee. But we won't lose those games because we won them last year.

[Norhusker]

As I posted after the horrific OSU loss. If we beat NW and Mich we are going to win the division. Period. IMO we can still drop one more game and still win the Legends because we have the tie-breaker over NW and Mich. Without Robinson Mich can lose any game, and they WON'T go into Columbus and win at the end of the year regardless of their QB. We are going to face Wiscy again, and play where we first lost. PASADENA

 

First time since 99' we will have won a damn conference title. FINALLY!

 

Don't put the cart before the horse. This team is still very up and down. If we have another big turn over prone game(s), then we can lose to anyone left on the schedule. If we can get past MSU, then I will feel much better! GBR!

[junior4949]

I do believe it will take a MAJOR collapse for us NOT to get to the championship.

As pointed out, even a stumble of one game will be mitigated by Ohio St beating Michigan.

 

Either Wisky or Indiana in INDY sends us to the Rose Bowl (which some of us still believed possible AFTER Ohio St, but we were few and far between).

 

The REWARD (??) in Pasadena is to face what I believe is the worst possible match-up for us in Oregon. (unless KState and the Domers falter).

 

The way Kirk and the ESPN cronies were talking, Oregon is set up perfectly. They will only go up in the computer rankings, and being #2 in the polls, they "should" end up being #2 at the end of the year and play Bama.

 

There's a lot of season left. Bama still has to beat LSU. We could be setting up for the first time in several years a SEC doesn't make it to the title game if LSU beats Bama and KState, Oregon, and Notre Dame go undefeated. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see USC beat Notre Dame, and it wouldn't shock me to see someone like Texas sneak up on KState.