Nebraska could be Big Ten's best shot

[RedDenver]

I'm well aware of Massey, thaaaaank you very much. But it's a composite of all models, polls, rankings, no matter how outlandish. I only look at the ones that aren't complete nonsense. There's a reason the BCS computers were a joke, and there's a reason why Sagarin is revered for its accuracy with respect to the Vegas lines. Models are like anything else, what it spits out depends on what you put in and what you tell it to do.

Yep. And Sagarin is pretty much garbage in, garbage out at this point in the season. Doesn't Sagarin post when the graph is simply connected (i.e. every team is connected to every other team through some series of opponents)?

[74Hunter]

With all of the injuries and suspensions, I'd be shocked if we made the playoffs.

[actuarygambler]

 

What is the statistical model you are looking at? Serious question.

 

 

Well, Sagarin has us at 27/28 (predictor is the only one that matters)

Football Outsiders F/+ at 31

Football Outsiders FEI at 29

Football Outsiders S&P+ at 35

This model at 31

 

so on so forth

 

should note that sagarin goes untethered after Week 5, so look to see if there's any marked changes after next week.

 

 

Glad you found my model, happy to answer any questions. Looks like Nebraska has been hovering just outside the top 25, a decisive win this weekend against Sparty would definitely put them over the top.

 

[admo]

 

 

 

Glad you found my model, happy to answer any questions. Looks like Nebraska has been hovering just outside the top 25, a decisive win this weekend against Sparty would definitely put them over the top.

 

 

 

Welcome to the board.

 

Can you expand on this a little better?

 

Not to sound rude but that is general thinking and kind of obvious.

[Hooked on Huskers]

I'm well aware of Massey, thaaaaank you very much. But it's a composite of all models, polls, rankings, no matter how outlandish. I only look at the ones that aren't complete nonsense. There's a reason the BCS computers were a joke, and there's a reason why Sagarin is revered for its accuracy with respect to the Vegas lines. Models are like anything else, what it spits out depends on what you put in and what you tell it to do.

 

I noticed that too. LV opening lines are waiting for Sagarin Predictor column. Usually very accurate. However, dismiss and ignore September Sag's ratings/predictors. BTW, Sag's said MSU favored by 7.5 points against our Huskers ...... BEFORE Vegas opening lines.

 

Jeff Sagarin is the best by far in mid-October thru the end (IMO)

 

Sports rating systems are generally of great interest to gamblers. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power/Predictor Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams. - wiki source

[Blackshirts007]

I don't understand why I need to look at a model to determine who will cover a spread. I watch college football every week and have a pretty good idea how good teams are and what factors come into play when playing an opponent.

[Landlord]

I don't understand why I need to look at a model to determine who will cover a spread. I watch college football every week and have a pretty good idea how good teams are and what factors come into play when playing an opponent.

 

 

Because models are objective and rational and anecdotal evidence is not. Generally speaking, at least.

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

With all of the injuries and suspensions, I'd be shocked if we made the playoffs.

Im not shocked that youd be shocked.

[HuskerinSunDiego]

Who cares about the Big 10? I only care about Nebraska.

[Landlord]

Who cares about the Big 10? I only care about Nebraska.

 

 

A strong Big 10 is advantageous to Nebraska.

[actuarygambler]

 

 

 

 

Glad you found my model, happy to answer any questions. Looks like Nebraska has been hovering just outside the top 25, a decisive win this weekend against Sparty would definitely put them over the top.

 

 

 

Welcome to the board.

 

Can you expand on this a little better?

 

Not to sound rude but that is general thinking and kind of obvious.

 

Sure, but it wasn't really a modeling comment, more of just a person comment i.e. look how your rank has been hovering just outside the top 25, you know what I bet would fix that..

 

Anyway, a decisive win over sparty looks like it would bump nebraska up from 31 to 21. A close win to 26.

[actuarygambler]

 

I'm well aware of Massey, thaaaaank you very much. But it's a composite of all models, polls, rankings, no matter how outlandish. I only look at the ones that aren't complete nonsense. There's a reason the BCS computers were a joke, and there's a reason why Sagarin is revered for its accuracy with respect to the Vegas lines. Models are like anything else, what it spits out depends on what you put in and what you tell it to do.

 

I noticed that too. LV opening lines are waiting for Sagarin Predictor column. Usually very accurate. However, dismiss and ignore September Sag's ratings/predictors. BTW, Sag's said MSU favored by 7.5 points against our Huskers ...... BEFORE Vegas opening lines.

 

Jeff Sagarin is the best by far in mid-October thru the end (IMO)

 

Sports rating systems are generally of great interest to gamblers. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power/Predictor Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams. - wiki source

 

I found a huge database of rating systems, vegas lines, and final scores and did a massive study (becuase I wanted to bet based on sagarin if it were that simple!) and found that his lines, while good, weren't better at predicting game outcomes than the vegas lines were.

[actuarygambler]

I don't understand why I need to look at a model to determine who will cover a spread. I watch college football every week and have a pretty good idea how good teams are and what factors come into play when playing an opponent.

 

Because humans have cognitive biases in what they observe, remember, think. Numbers don't. I thikn probably the best modeling system would combine numbers with human observation.

[KazLong]

[tschu]

Hey actuarygambler, welcome man