America Reaches Deal with Iran

[Husker_x]

Today the world became a slightly safer place to live (although I have serious doubts Iran ever wanted a bomb in the first place).

 

After a process that has tested international alliances and divided politicians at home, President Obama said that Iran and six world powers had come to a preliminary understanding about Iran's nuclear program. The framework agreement was reached after years of multilateral negotiations.

 

Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the issue has alienated Iran and vexed Western powers. Obama made reaching an agreement with Iran a priority of his administration and began bilateral talks with Iran in secret years ago

 

Obama said that if fully implemented, the deal outlined today would prevent Iran "from obtaining a nuclear weapon."

It's no secret, Obama said, that the United States and Israel disagree on this deal, but Obama said a diplomatic solution like the one reached today is "the best option."

 

"A diplomatic solution is the best way to get this done and offers a more comprehensive and lasting solution," Obama said.

 

Reading a statement agreed to by all parties, Federica Mogherini, of the European Union, said Thursday that all sides had "taken a decisive step" and reached an agreement that would curb some of Iran's nuclear programs, allow for more international inspections and lift some sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Iran. The agreement allows Iran to continue some enrichment of uranium at only one site and turns Fordow, a contentious underground nuclear facility, into a "nuclear physics and technology center."

 

NPR

 

Click here for the major points of the deal agreed to by all interested parties.

[BigRedBuster]

Your statement is speculation at best.

[JJ Husker]

I hope this deal does some good.....I have my doubts.

 

The problem I see is the same old problem. Iran will get crippling sanctions lifted so they really had/have nothing to lose with this agreement. I will assume they did not all of a sudden get reasonable and become stellar world citizens. This just seems like more of the same for them, tell the world what it wants to hear, play the game until caught again, and get out of the consequences of having been caught before. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. The only people who truly believe this is a great deal have to be naive enough to think Iran really hasn't been, and won't continue to, pursue weapons grade enrichment. Now we are to believe they want to sit around the campfire and sing kumbaya with Israel and the west? Never wanted the bomb? WTF?

[Husker_x]

I hope this deal does some good.....I have my doubts.

 

The problem I see is the same old problem. Iran will get crippling sanctions lifted so they really had/have nothing to lose with this agreement. I will assume they did not all of a sudden get reasonable and become stellar world citizens. This just seems like more of the same for them, tell the world what it wants to hear, play the game until caught again, and get out of the consequences of having been caught before. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. The only people who truly believe this is a great deal have to be naive enough to think Iran really hasn't been, and won't continue to, pursue weapons grade enrichment. Now we are to believe they want to sit around the campfire and sing kumbaya with Israel and the west? Never wanted the bomb? WTF?

Doubts are fine. The deal the U.S. and the UN Security Council have just struck doesn't require trust. The sanctions which are set to be lifted can snap back into place almost instantly (these are the same sanctions that got Iran to the table in the first place). See the full text of the agreement. If at any point the Iranian government does not comply with any significant part of the arrangement, it's a quick free fall back to Square 1. They can say anything they want, but they are losing big here. Once these procedures and inspections go into effect, Iran has no path to a nuclear weapon. Under this agreement, they can only enrich uranium to just under 4%. For a nuke you need 90%. Every facility is monitored. They have to scrap significant sections of their nuclear energy program.

 

I don't know what you've read or what you think about the reasons Iran would want a bomb, but the question of Iran's intentions is and has been for some time open.

It's not clear [that Iran intends to build a nuclear device]. The United States and several other countries believe that Iran is trying to develop the technology and fissile material necessary to build a nuclear weapon. There's an important distinction here: Western intelligence agencies have not concluded that Iran has decided to definitely build a bomb. Rather, they've reported lots of signs -- secret facilities, weapons-related research programs -- that suggest that Iran is trying to develop the technology and materials necessary to build a nuclear bomb very quickly. This is called "breakout capability," as in Iran would have the ability to quickly "break out" into a full-fledged nuclear weapons state.

There is also the question of why Iran would want a bomb at all. The Mullahs may be glorified gangsters, and the previous president had some loud apocalyptic rhetoric about Israel, but the Iranian people themselves are relatively young and secular. They realize a nuke doesn't do them any favors. Blowing up Israel, or even coming close, is suicide. One useful thing you might be able to do with a nuke, though, is prevent the single greatest threat to your society from strong-arming you. Of course I mean the United States, the country that overthrew the democratically elected prime minister in 1953 and invaded Iraq under false pretenses in 2003.

 

Now as a conservative, I'd like you to do something for me. If you still object to this deal, state that you do, and then succinctly explain what your alternative is rather than spreading a mystifying haze of doubt and fear. And your solution had better not be more war.

[JJ Husker]

 

I hope this deal does some good.....I have my doubts.

The problem I see is the same old problem. Iran will get crippling sanctions lifted so they really had/have nothing to lose with this agreement. I will assume they did not all of a sudden get reasonable and become stellar world citizens. This just seems like more of the same for them, tell the world what it wants to hear, play the game until caught again, and get out of the consequences of having been caught before. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. The only people who truly believe this is a great deal have to be naive enough to think Iran really hasn't been, and won't continue to, pursue weapons grade enrichment. Now we are to believe they want to sit around the campfire and sing kumbaya with Israel and the west? Never wanted the bomb? WTF?

Doubts are fine. The deal the U.S. and the UN Security Council have just struck doesn't require trust. The sanctions which are set to be lifted can snap back into place almost instantly (these are the same sanctions that got Iran to the table in the first place). See the full text of the agreement. If at any point the Iranian government does not comply with any significant part of the arrangement, it's a quick free fall back to Square 1. They can say anything they want, but they are losing big here. Once these procedures and inspections go into effect, Iran has no path to a nuclear weapon. Under this agreement, they can only enrich uranium to just under 4%. For a nuke you need 90%. Every facility is monitored. They have to scrap significant sections of their nuclear energy program.

 

I don't know what you've read or what you think about the reasons Iran would want a bomb, but the question of Iran's intentions is and has been for some time open.

It's not clear [that Iran intends to build a nuclear device]. The United States and several other countries believe that Iran is trying to develop the technology and fissile material necessary to build a nuclear weapon. There's an important distinction here: Western intelligence agencies have not concluded that Iran has decided to definitely build a bomb. Rather, they've reported lots of signs -- secret facilities, weapons-related research programs -- that suggest that Iran is trying to develop the technology and materials necessary to build a nuclear bomb very quickly. This is called "breakout capability," as in Iran would have the ability to quickly "break out" into a full-fledged nuclear weapons state.

There is also the question of why Iran would want a bomb at all. The Mullahs may be glorified gangsters, and the previous president had some loud apocalyptic rhetoric about Israel, but the Iranian people themselves are relatively young and secular. They realize a nuke doesn't do them any favors. Blowing up Israel, or even coming close, is suicide. One useful thing you might be able to do with a nuke, though, is prevent the single greatest threat to your society from strong-arming you. Of course I mean the United States, the country that overthrew the democratically elected prime minister in 1953 and invaded Iraq under false pretenses in 2003.

 

Now as a conservative, I'd like you to do something for me. If you still object to this deal, state that you do, and then succinctly explain what your alternative is rather than spreading a mystifying haze of doubt and fear. And your solution had better not be more war.

I don't specifically object to this deal nor do I have a better alternative. I am just expressing realistic doubts based on past experience. In some circles, this current deal has been presented as the ultimate solution for peace and stability in the middle east. If it works long term, great, it is a great step but, I just don't see how some people can be as giddy over the possibilities as they are. I mean I guess it's better than more war but I am very pessimistic anything will ever be successful in that part of the world. That's all I'm saying and it has little to do with me being conservative and everything to do with being realistic.

[BigRedBuster]

Ok...some people are talking like this is some amazing agreement that brings peace.

 

How? We aren't at war with Iran so what war is it stopping? Iran has sponsored groups in other countries that promote more war and death. Does this agreement talk about that?

 

What I do like? It's a step in the right direction to allow inspectors and limit the amount of refinement to be done.

 

I also like the Iranian people. I actually think they are what is keeping the leadership from being more nasty in the region. They know if they do too much, the public would revolt.

 

As for the sanctions. I always thought they really weren't doing much. The Iranians still lived pretty decent and modern lives compared to their neighbors.

 

I'm hoping there is reason to be optimistic.

[Husker_x]

Ok...some people are talking like this is some amazing agreement that brings peace.

 

How? We aren't at war with Iran so what war is it stopping? Iran has sponsored groups in other countries that promote more war and death. Does this agreement talk about that?

 

What I do like? It's a step in the right direction to allow inspectors and limit the amount of refinement to be done.

 

I also like the Iranian people. I actually think they are what is keeping the leadership from being more nasty in the region. They know if they do too much, the public would revolt.

 

As for the sanctions. I always thought they really weren't doing much. The Iranians still lived pretty decent and modern lives compared to their neighbors.

 

I'm hoping there is reason to be optimistic.

 

The deal won't do that, but it does transition our diplomatic stance with Iran, creating a more open environment that ideally will lead to more cultural exchange and eventually normalized relations. Removing an enemy or even a potential enemy from your list of problems is a step towards peace in the MidEast. The Iranian people are probably more with us than most people think. No doubt several countries are watching these events unfold with a good deal of interest. Nobody thinks that this is the final solution, least of all the group of highly informed diplomats that created the framework of the agreement. It is a piece of the puzzle, though. The sanctions we have in place––at least as I understand them––are about isolating Iran financially from the rest of the world, creating an incentive for changed behavior. We're doing similar things to Russia (who's economy and currency are in the tank), specifically targeting wealthy/influential people in the country and freezing them out.

 

On the hope for optimism bit, try this one on for size: the U.S., China, Russia, France, and Iran all agree on something. For once.

 

If that one doesn't cheer you up, Iran is fighting ISIS, and the Iraqi army just took back Tikrit. The thing about the Middle East is––as most people know––it's a total clusterf*&k. If we can get chemical weapons out of Syria and stop Iran from going nuclear without firing a shot, we're winning, or as close to winning as we're likely to be in the near future.

[BigRedBuster]

I get pretty much all of that and I have always said that with Iran the old mafia saying..."keep your friends close and your enemies closer" applies. Not talking to them was the wrong approach.

 

But, there is one hell of a lot that needs to happen before I feel safer simply because of signatures on a piece of paper.

[KazLong]

The middle east is quagmire.

 

Almost 20 years of on again, off again, military intervention, we have not learned our lessons.

 

This has lasted almost as long as Vietnam and made half as much sense.

 

Mean while, he has Nukes. A person who thinks his Grandfather and Father are still alive and are Gods.

 

 

[Moiraine]

I just wanna drag my finger through that chin crack and whisper sweet nothings in his ear.

[TGHusker]

 

Ok...some people are talking like this is some amazing agreement that brings peace.

 

How? We aren't at war with Iran so what war is it stopping? Iran has sponsored groups in other countries that promote more war and death. Does this agreement talk about that?

 

What I do like? It's a step in the right direction to allow inspectors and limit the amount of refinement to be done.

 

I also like the Iranian people. I actually think they are what is keeping the leadership from being more nasty in the region. They know if they do too much, the public would revolt.

 

As for the sanctions. I always thought they really weren't doing much. The Iranians still lived pretty decent and modern lives compared to their neighbors.

 

I'm hoping there is reason to be optimistic.

 

The deal won't do that, but it does transition our diplomatic stance with Iran, creating a more open environment that ideally will lead to more cultural exchange and eventually normalized relations. Removing an enemy or even a potential enemy from your list of problems is a step towards peace in the MidEast. The Iranian people are probably more with us than most people think. No doubt several countries are watching these events unfold with a good deal of interest. Nobody thinks that this is the final solution, least of all the group of highly informed diplomats that created the framework of the agreement. It is a piece of the puzzle, though. The sanctions we have in place––at least as I understand them––are about isolating Iran financially from the rest of the world, creating an incentive for changed behavior. We're doing similar things to Russia (who's economy and currency are in the tank), specifically targeting wealthy/influential people in the country and freezing them out.

 

On the hope for optimism bit, try this one on for size: the U.S., China, Russia, France, and Iran all agree on something. For once.

 

If that one doesn't cheer you up, Iran is fighting ISIS, and the Iraqi army just took back Tikrit. The thing about the Middle East is––as most people know––it's a total clusterf*&k. If we can get chemical weapons out of Syria and stop Iran from going nuclear without firing a shot, we're winning, or as close to winning as we're likely to be in the near future.

 

Good points. Iran fighting ISIS is a very good thing. Any movement forward is a good thing. Now if we can get them to denounce any talk of destroying Israel and recognize their right to exist, then we've made real progress. But at least they got to the table wt us, China, France and Russia. If they have peaceful intentions, then perhaps we can see progress within the whole region later. They are not friends wt the Saudi's either - so a lot of hurdles remain in that very sectarian world.

I've heard some concern that they might be able to enrich via a 3rd party country (namely the guy pictured above - Mr Kim's N. Korea). Are there safe guards of any kind to prevent that that you know of?

[Husker_x]

 

 

Ok...some people are talking like this is some amazing agreement that brings peace.

 

How? We aren't at war with Iran so what war is it stopping? Iran has sponsored groups in other countries that promote more war and death. Does this agreement talk about that?

 

What I do like? It's a step in the right direction to allow inspectors and limit the amount of refinement to be done.

 

I also like the Iranian people. I actually think they are what is keeping the leadership from being more nasty in the region. They know if they do too much, the public would revolt.

 

As for the sanctions. I always thought they really weren't doing much. The Iranians still lived pretty decent and modern lives compared to their neighbors.

 

I'm hoping there is reason to be optimistic.

 

The deal won't do that, but it does transition our diplomatic stance with Iran, creating a more open environment that ideally will lead to more cultural exchange and eventually normalized relations. Removing an enemy or even a potential enemy from your list of problems is a step towards peace in the MidEast. The Iranian people are probably more with us than most people think. No doubt several countries are watching these events unfold with a good deal of interest. Nobody thinks that this is the final solution, least of all the group of highly informed diplomats that created the framework of the agreement. It is a piece of the puzzle, though. The sanctions we have in place––at least as I understand them––are about isolating Iran financially from the rest of the world, creating an incentive for changed behavior. We're doing similar things to Russia (who's economy and currency are in the tank), specifically targeting wealthy/influential people in the country and freezing them out.

 

On the hope for optimism bit, try this one on for size: the U.S., China, Russia, France, and Iran all agree on something. For once.

 

If that one doesn't cheer you up, Iran is fighting ISIS, and the Iraqi army just took back Tikrit. The thing about the Middle East is––as most people know––it's a total clusterf*&k. If we can get chemical weapons out of Syria and stop Iran from going nuclear without firing a shot, we're winning, or as close to winning as we're likely to be in the near future.

 

Good points. Iran fighting ISIS is a very good thing. Any movement forward is a good thing. Now if we can get them to denounce any talk of destroying Israel and recognize their right to exist, then we've made real progress. But at least they got to the table wt us, China, France and Russia. If they have peaceful intentions, then perhaps we can see progress within the whole region later. They are not friends wt the Saudi's either - so a lot of hurdles remain in that very sectarian world.

I've heard some concern that they might be able to enrich via a 3rd party country (namely the guy pictured above - Mr Kim's N. Korea). Are there safe guards of any kind to prevent that that you know of?

 

 

Probably China's interests is our biggest safeguard, although on another level nuclear proliferation remains one of our biggest global challenges. Read Rachel Maddow's book ​Drift: The Unmooring of American Military Power. We've left nukes sitting unguarded on runways. One time a bomb almost went off; thankfully the last of four or five safeguards didn't fail (the others did). I'm honestly more concerned about our own aged, deteriorating stockpile of useless bombs than I am about the North Koreans secretly shipping uranium to Iran.

[TGHusker]

You know -- you bring up a good point. I was thinking the other day about all of our silos (the missile type not the farm type) and how old these are now getting. I think 60 min did a show on them over a year ago and there is still some old technology in those silos. I happened to meet a man at the Okla Cornhusker Club who had a big role in building those silos. He died last year (around 85 yrs old) and he was working on these back in the 1960s. An uncle of mine also flew B-52s and some of those are equipped wt nukes - Before he died, he told me of problems wt the B-52s. During Vietnam he had to bail out of one outside of Guam due to electrical failure- now they are 40 years older. Maybe they don't put Nukes on 52s anymore but we do have a snake pit of trouble under our own arm pits wt these aging bombs/missiles.

[krill]

My order of nuclear worry...

 

1. North Korea - Consistently the most irrational world actor.

 

2. Pakistan - Quasi democratic, sometimes junta governed nation with ungoverned spaces controlled by radicals. Oh, and a borderline failed state to boot.

 

3. Russia - Not Putin. Look into some of the mishandling of warheads by the US military and our completely apathetic missile force. Now imagine Russia with a shoestring budget, worse military morale, more warheads, and far more nuclear material floating around.

 

4. Israel - The weapons they don't have of course, and why it makes it very difficult to call Iran's nuclear program illegitimate, or call for the whole region to be a nuclear free zone.

 

5. "All other" - US, China, UK, France, India

 

6. The chance that Iran may somehow dupe the world into first getting the material for a weapon, developing a weapon, testing a weapon, testing a delivery vehicle, then after all that, having a surprise announcement. Iran has been two years away from a weapon for three decades.

 

I think it's also worth pointing out that roughly no one under the age of 40 in Iran remembers the shah, and likewise no one under 40 in America remembers the hostage crisis. I was really struck by one scene in particular from Anthony Bourdain's visit to Iran:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2-cwlmtsms

 

All that goes away the moment a bomb drops, and pretty much everyone besides loonies like John Bolton agrees a military strike on Iran would accomplish nothing anyway. Sanctions have only seemed to slow their progress, while making their government's cries that all their problems are due to America an easy sell to the right wing and people that just want economic opportunities.

 

Well, anyway, I think Obama's lasting legacy will be ending hostilities with Iran and Cuba. The the last guy left practically all domestic and international affairs as burning train wreck.

 

 

[KazLong]

Remember this gem?

 

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/north-koreas-missile-trade-helps-fund-its-nuclear-program

 

" According to US sources, other customers of North Korean missile parts and technology include Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Vietnam."

 

At the time the believed delivery was Yemen, however I believe later news accounts said Iraq. One thing is clear was not the Goverment of Yemen, and we know how stable they are now.

 

Oh Korea, selling or tried to sell weapons to Iraq during our brief but constant war with them. Spanish caught them on a routine patrole ship around Africa.

 

So to answer your question, nope. Kim Jun Un is selling weapons as fast as he can make them. The one saving grace is buying a weapon from N Korea is like buying a weapon from ACME. (yes a road runner reference)

 

Do not forget Koreas laughable weekly threats to Nuke D.C.