Run Defense vs. Pass Defense (How big is the discrepancy?)

[funhusker]

Just numbers I pulled off of ESPN's stat pages of Nebraska Opponents. Not sure what to make of it myself....

 

BYU:

 

vs. Neb

Passing: 379

Rushing: 132

 

vs. Boise State

Passing: 309

Rushing: 72

 

vs. UCLA

Passing: 244

Rushing: 161

 

vs. Michigan

Passing: 55

Rushing: 50 (Mother of GOD!!)

_____________________________________________________

 

South Alabama:

 

vs. Gard Webb

Passing: 184

Rushing: 224

 

vs. Neb.

Passing: 313

Rushing: 19

 

vs. San Diego State

Passing: 270

Rushing: 241

 

vs. NC State

Passing: 213

Rushing: 45

__________________________________________________________

 

Miami:

 

vs. Beth Cook

Passing: 184

Rushing: 195

 

vs. FAU

Passing: 300

Rushing: 226

 

vs. Neb

Passing: 379

Rushing: 132

 

BYE

-

-

____________________________________________________________

 

Southern Miss

 

vs. Miss State

Passing: 311

Rushing: 102

 

vs. Austin Peay

Passing: 275

Rushing: 239

 

vs. Texas State

Passing: 233

Rushing: 280

 

vs. Neb

Passing: 447

Rushing: 11

 

Edit: Just noticed I didn't put the outcome of the games on here. I thought about going back and adding W vs L and score. But on second thought, leaving the outcome out (if we didn't know them) might make us look closer...

[funhusker]

I guess I was hoping to find passing numbers closer to our opponents' averages and rushing numbers much lower than opponents' averages. I found..., well not sure ...

 

Is it because of play style? small sample? Good run d? Bad pass D? or "all of the above"? I want to look a little deeper myself.

[ColoradoHusk]

Id teams know they can pass at will against Nebraska, they don't even need to try and run the ball.

 

Even BYU probably had a decent amount of their running yards were scrambles by the QB.

[lo country]

I guess I was hoping to find passing numbers closer to our opponents' averages and rushing numbers much lower than opponents' averages. I found..., well not sure ...

 

Is it because of play style? small sample? Good run d? Bad pass D? or "all of the above"? I want to look a little deeper myself.

In one of the threads discussing our pass D, our opponents averages thus far was pulled. All of them threw more attempts than their average save for one. I think it's safe to say that we have not seen the last of the aerial assaults against NU. IIRC, Wisky, Iowa, Minnie and Illinois are all throwing over 200 yards per game. Illinois should be a great test. Talking heads say he is the best "pure passer" in the west.

 

We have no more guys to bench, so maybe the staff will pull their heads out of their collective butts and figure out something..........

 

I also think our rush D might not be near what we were told it will be. My guess is based upon non-existent pass rush (no real dominant performance) and the fact teams are stupid to run when they can put 245 yards on us in a quarter...... Southern Miss abandoned run and came close to upsetting us....

[Lux]

Destroy the run, make the throw, have good red zone defense. The right formula. If our red zone offense would have stayed in pace the game goes 58-28.

[funhusker]

I "kind of" agree.

 

Look, I'm not trying to find an excuse for the pass defense. But I keep hearing your sentiments: "if team A knows they can pass...."

 

Passing is riskier than running. Words of Dr. Tom, "there are three outcomes of a forward pass, and 2 are bad."

 

A well coached team will not "give up the run" from the opening kickoff, unless they know for certain that they will have large gains through the air, and ZERO success on the ground. If they believe they have ZERO chance of running, isn't that a "plus 1" for the run defense?

 

Edit: this was in response to ColoradoHusk (some quick responses here)

[NUinID]

 

I guess I was hoping to find passing numbers closer to our opponents' averages and rushing numbers much lower than opponents' averages. I found..., well not sure ...

 

Is it because of play style? small sample? Good run d? Bad pass D? or "all of the above"? I want to look a little deeper myself.

In one of the threads discussing our pass D, our opponents averages thus far was pulled. All of them threw more attempts than their average save for one. I think it's safe to say that we have not seen the last of the aerial assaults against NU. IIRC, Wisky, Iowa, Minnie and Illinois are all throwing over 200 yards per game. Illinois should be a great test. Talking heads say he is the best "pure passer" in the west.

We have no more guys to bench, so maybe the staff will pull their heads out of their collective butts and figure out something..........

I also think our rush D might not be near what we were told it will be. My guess is based upon non-existent pass rush (no real dominant performance) and the fact teams are stupid to run when they can put 245 yards on us in a quarter...... Southern Miss abandoned run and came close to upsetting us....

Your assumptions are based on what about S. Miss? They ran for 102,239,and 280 in their first three games, so you think they didn't want to run the ball or felt they didn't need to run the ball? They had like -14 yards rushing in the first half of that game.

 

You think they said we don't need to run the ball. We can assume we will put up 245 yards passing in a quarter? We can assume they thought this after throwing for about 140 in the first half? I think they said we aren't running and we are down 22 so we most likely are going to throw.

 

You assume a lot.

 

Look, in the first half NU played well defensively, they really did. In the second they didn't. That needs to be fixed. It is a game of momentum and NU lost the momentum om the second play of the first half. NU is not good enough to mail it in and they kind of did that.

 

The offense did their job they just didn't finish drives like they had all year. Remember up till the last game NU was 11 of 12 in the red zone.

 

The pass d needs to get a lot better, but you are making a lot of assumptions

[True2tRA]

Destroy the run, make the throw, have good red zone defense. The right formula. If our red zone offense would have stayed in pace the game goes 58-28.

Yup.

[True2tRA]

Pass D could get bettter, needs to get better, but we are doing a hell of a lot of other things right to be the worst ranked Pass D in the country and still be a couple,plays from being undefeated.

 

Don't change it. This is how Bankers defense is gonna look. Don't need to bail the players out right now. Players need to step up.

 

How many receivers have we faced that you all think require double coverage from most teams?

[admo]

With all these passing yards the Huskers are giving up, then why are teams not scoring 40, 50, 60 points? And it's not like the Huskers have faced all easy teams with average QBs.

 

Since moving to a new conference, I know what happens when teams run all over us.... they score 40, 50, 60, 70.

 

Just something to consider.

[Kiyoat Husker]

 

Passing is riskier than running. Words of Dr. Tom, "there are three outcomes of a forward pass, and 2 are bad.")

Actually Woody Hayes and Darrell Royal both popularized that phrase in the early 60's. Not Dr Tom. Although he may have repeated it. FWIW

[funhusker]

 

 

Passing is riskier than running. Words of Dr. Tom, "there are three outcomes of a forward pass, and 2 are bad.")

Actually Woody Hayes and Darrell Royal both popularized that phrase in the early 60's. Not Dr Tom. Although he may have repeated it. FWIW

 

Well, if one of those yahoos is the source......

 

 

 

 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

 

 

Passing is riskier than running. Words of Dr. Tom, "there are three outcomes of a forward pass, and 2 are bad.")

Actually Woody Hayes and Darrell Royal both popularized that phrase in the early 60's. Not Dr Tom. Although he may have repeated it. FWIW

Yeah, and the game is nowhere like it was during the days of Hayes, Royal, or even Osborne. The rules have changed so it's so much easier to pass, and the QBs and receivers are better, too.

[EmeraldIngot]

 

 

 

Passing is riskier than running. Words of Dr. Tom, "there are three outcomes of a forward pass, and 2 are bad.")

Actually Woody Hayes and Darrell Royal both popularized that phrase in the early 60's. Not Dr Tom. Although he may have repeated it. FWIW

Yeah, and the game is nowhere like it was during the days of Hayes, Royal, or even Osborne. The rules have changed so it's so much easier to pass, and the QBs and receivers are better, too.

Another thing that's changed since those days is that the ball regulations have changed. In the early part of the 1900s, a football was almost as big around as a volleyball. The tips were more rounded as well. It was extremely difficult to get a grip and throw it with any kind of accuracy. In fact, up through the 40s, throwing a football was more similar to a shot put toss than the modern throwing mechanics. Conversely, the larger ball made it much easier to kick.

 

In the 50s and 60s, a series of regulatory revisions (started in the NFL, actually...) made the ball progressively smaller and more pointed. There's a reason why the Air Raid and WCO first developed in the 60s, it's because the ball got easier to grip and easier to throw.

 

If I remember the regulations correctly, the NFL regulation ball is actually smaller than most college balls, though the college regulations actually allow for a range of (very slight) differently sized balls.

 

Though, yes, other rules have changed to make football more of a passing game, the size and shape of the ball is also an important factor.

[lo country]

 

 

I guess I was hoping to find passing numbers closer to our opponents' averages and rushing numbers much lower than opponents' averages. I found..., well not sure ...

 

Is it because of play style? small sample? Good run d? Bad pass D? or "all of the above"? I want to look a little deeper myself.

In one of the threads discussing our pass D, our opponents averages thus far was pulled. All of them threw higher percentage of passes than run of their average save for one. I think it's safe to say that we have not seen the last of the aerial assaults against NU. IIRC, Wisky, Iowa, Minnie and Illinois are all throwing over 200 yards per game. Illinois should be a great test. Talking heads say he is the best "pure passer" in the west.

We have no more guys to bench, so maybe the staff will pull their heads out of their collective butts and figure out something..........

I also think our rush D might not be near what we were told it will be. My guess is based upon non-existent pass rush (no real dominant performance) and the fact teams are stupid to run when they can put 245 yards on us in a quarter...... Southern Miss abandoned run and came close to upsetting us....

Your assumptions are based on what about S. Miss? They ran for 102,239,and 280 in their first three games, so you think they didn't want to run the ball or felt they didn't need to run the ball? They had like -14 yards rushing in the first half of that game.

 

You think they said we don't need to run the ball. We can assume we will put up 245 yards passing in a quarter? We can assume they thought this after throwing for about 140 in the first half? I think they said we aren't running and we are down 22 so we most likely are going to throw.

 

You assume a lot.

 

Look, in the first half NU played well defensively, they really did. In the second they didn't. That needs to be fixed. It is a game of momentum and NU lost the momentum om the second play of the first half. NU is not good enough to mail it in and they kind of did that.

 

The offense did their job they just didn't finish drives like they had all year. Remember up till the last game NU was 11 of 12 in the red zone.

 

The pass d needs to get a lot better, but you are making a lot of assumptions

 

I didn't assume that Southern Miss threw for 245 yards in the 4th quarter. I didn't assume that this board blamed Davie for the loss against Miami only to see every DB we have get torched for almost 500 yards. I am not assuming that every team we have faced in 4 games has thrown more than their season average to date......I am assuming that our rush D might not be what it is advertised. Unsure if we will know this season. I'd plan to throw until we can stop it. To date, we haven't......Here is the post from our own "ItsNotaFakeID" Note the bold as to what Opponents "normally" do and what they did against NU.

Let's have a little fun. Here are the stats of Michigan State's opponents in 2007:

UAB: 21/39, 265 yards, 1TD, 1 INT, 19.3 QBR; 32 rushes, 12 yards

Bowling Green: 32/51, 328 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 45.6 QBR; 25 rushes, 47 yards

 

Pittsburgh: 9/20, 118 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 10.5 QBR; 38 rushes, 207 yards

Notre Dame: 11/20 118 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6.2 QBR; 35 rushes, 117 yards

Wisconsin: 17/25, 267 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 43.0 QBR; 52 rushes, 214 yards

Northwestern: 38/49, 522 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 96.0 QBR; 34 rushes, 91 yards

Indiana: 13/19, 211 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 56.3 QBR; 17 rushes 22 yards

Ohio State: 15/23, 206 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 69.4 QBR; 47 rushes, 229 yards

Iowa: 5/15, 64 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 11.4 QBR; 44 rushes, 230 yards

Michigan: 18/33, 221 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT; 51.4 QBR; 30 rushes, 100 yards

Purdue: 29/45, 362 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 67.8 QBR; 25 rushes, 173 yards

Penn State: 16/37, 188 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 33.9 QBR; 40 rushes, 167 yards

And now Nebraska's defensive stats through 4 games so far (this is going to be painful):

BYU: 28/46, 379 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 68.5/87.6 (Hill/Mangum) QBR; 26 rushes, 132 yards

South Alabama: 26/45, 313 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 42.5 QBR; 24 rushes, 19 yards

Miami: 25/42, 379 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 67.6 QBR; 33 rushes, 132 yards

Southern Miss: 26/42 447 (*cough*) yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 72.1 QBR; 23 rushes, 11 yards

So as you can see, those aren't quite similar stats that teams put up against the Spartans in Narduzzi's first year implementing his similar defense at Michigan State. Now you can take this one of a few ways:

1. It's easier for teams to pass the ball in 2015 than 2007, and there's been a greater emphasis by teams to throw the ball more. I think it's pretty safe to acknowledge that offenses are scoring more points in today's version of the game than they scored in older versions. Just the way the game is called and officiated gives offenses advantages over the defense, and good teams are taking advantage of that. Despite the changes in the game since 2007, there's not much of a difference in how many yards a majority of teams pass for between 2007 and 2014. In 2007, a majority of college teams ended the season with 2155-3685 yards whereas in 2014 a majority of teams ended the season with 2146-3782 yards.

2. Perhaps the teams we faced were just pass heavy teams. It's true, the Big Ten is a run-heavy conference, and perhaps our secondary won't be asked to do as much work as they have during the past 4 weeks. So perhaps we won't be seeing these kind of performances because our conference opponents will stress running over passing and will play into the strength of our defense. I looked at the run/pass % of teams on our schedules, just to see if we just had the misfortune of coming across pass-heavy offenses.

BYU after 4 games, sits at 54/46 pass/run%: against Nebraska it was 64/36 pass/run%

USA after 3 games, sits at 51/49 pass/run%: against Nebraska it was 65/35 pass/run%

Miami after 3 games, sits at 54/46 pass/run%: against Nebraska it was 56/44 pass/run%

So Miss after 4 games, sits at 53/47 pass/run%: against Nebraska it was 65/35 pass/run %

So the only game where the pass/run splits wasn't significantly different than the team's season average was against Miami, which means that teams were able to notice that they were able to get Nebraska through the air that they were comfortable enough abandoning their identity. If Nebraska's secondary play doesn't improve, more teams--regardless of how pass or run-heavy their offenses are, will be comfortable in abandoning their offensive identity as well. Let's see their pass/run% so far in this young season:

Illinois: 51/49 pass/run%

Wisconsin: 48/52 pass/run%

Minnesota: 46/54 pass/run%

Northwestern: 27/73 pass/run%

Purdue: 50/50 pass/run%

Michigan State: 42/58 pass/run%

Rutgers: 43/57 pass/run%

Iowa: 43/57 pass/run%

So more teams in the Big Ten favor the run game over the pass, that's not really surprising, and could mean that our defense may improve upon entering conference play. Although I'm not sure if teams will stay true to their identity and tendencies or if they will abandon that and pass more because of how porous our secondary has been in the early going.

Nevertheless, this defense--the secondary especially--has a lot of work to do if we want to get through this season respectably.