College Football Playoff Rankings

[Creed]

Alabama might edge out Clemson in next weeks rankings. Alabama plays Miss State who is ranked #17, even though they have no signature wins and 2 losses, one being to an UR and awful A&M team. Clemson doesn't play an SEC team this week, they play 3-6 Syracuse.

[Redux]

At this point the Pac 12 is SOL to get in. The Big 12 nees Baylor to finish unscathed and Notre Dame to lose.

 

#1 Clemson vs #4 Baylor

#2 Alabama vs #3 tOSU

 

Left Out: #5 Notre Dame, #6 Stanford

[brophog]

I think Stanford has a decent shot. Yes, they need help. Several of the other teams don't, they can just win out. Stanford could potentially still play a very highly ranked Notre Dame and Utah. They then need either the Big Ten or Big 12 to open the door.

 

First the Big Ten only has one really strong scenario, Ohio St winning out. That's pretty much a sure fire playoff berth. Iowa winning out, even over an undefeated Ohio State, is not necessarily strong enough to guarantee a spot due to a strength of schedule that won't improve much. Mich/Mich St are both bigger reaches, thanks to our contribution.

 

The Big 12 has many scenarios. The weakest is TCU. They were suspect before the loss. Oklahoma has been thought for dead, but still having the three other potential candidates on the schedule gives them lots of ammo, and they're playing well enough to run it. I think most are assuming an undefeated Big 12 team is in, but that's easier said than done.

 

Is there a scenario right now that would have two teams of a conference make it in? I'm not sure there is. But we're all assuming Clemson wins out, too. If they lose this gets busted wide open.

[VA Husker Fan]

Is there a scenario right now that would have two teams of a conference make it in? I'm not sure there is. But we're all assuming Clemson wins out, too. If they lose this gets busted wide open.

It all depends on how many teams lose. Right now the best scenario for that is probably Ohio St losing to Mich St in a close game and Iowa winning out, and enough other teams losing for Ohio St to climb back to 4th. LSU could climb back as well. I know that wouldn't go over well here. The committee has shown a willingness to move teams up and down without requiring a team above them to lose as the other polls mostly do. Between that and a lot of loss opportunities for top teams, I don't really look at anybody in the top 10, maybe even top 13, being totally out of the picture.

[brophog]

 

Is there a scenario right now that would have two teams of a conference make it in? I'm not sure there is. But we're all assuming Clemson wins out, too. If they lose this gets busted wide open.

 

It all depends on how many teams lose. Right now the best scenario for that is probably Ohio St losing to Mich St in a close game and Iowa winning out, and enough other teams losing for Ohio St to climb back to 4th. LSU could climb back as well. I know that wouldn't go over well here. The committee has shown a willingness to move teams up and down without requiring a team above them to lose as the other polls mostly do. Between that and a lot of loss opportunities for top teams, I don't really look at anybody in the top 10, maybe even top 13, being totally out of the picture.

We saw a lot of movement like that last year. I totally agree that we can't paint teams in or out at this point. I would say we can maybe look all the way down to 15 (though I feel Mich/st/TCU/Utah are all a bit behind). Mass chaos can still ensue!

 

If I'm understanding the scenario correctly, Ohio St loses to Mich St whom would lose to Iowa in the conference title game. So we're jumping into our way back machine and arguing if teams need to play in their title game. (And to make it more interesting maybe arguing against other teams whom don't even have one!)

[Mavric]

[brophog]

The PAC really didn't want in. The Stanford house of toothpicks fell. Curious how the committee reacts.

[Mavric]

 

[QMany]

Except for the part where they lost and are ahead of teams who haven't ...

[Mavric]

Except for the part where they lost and are ahead of teams who haven't ...

 

Eh, I'm don't subscribe to that philosophy as a 100% absolute. Going strictly by that, Houston would be ahead of Alabama and I don't think Houston is the better team.

 

College football schedules are terribly unbalnaced in terms of how tough they are. I think winning games is the most important thing but I don't think it's the only criteria. That's why a playoff was so badly needed. Lesser teams were playing for the National Title ahead of better teams because they happened to get a couple more breaks along the way.

 

Notre Dame wasn't one of the best two teams in 2012 but they won all their games so they "deserved" a shot. Would have been much better with a ND-Bama-Oregon-Florida/KState playoff. Florida State definitely wasn't one of the top two teams last year but without the playoff, it would have been FSU/Bama in the National Championship game.

 

I'm no Bama apologist but it's tough to argue that they don't play a tough schedule. If there were four undefeated P5 conference champions (B1G, Pac-12, ACC, Big XII), I would make an argument that Bama should be left out. But that's not the case. If you want to say that Bama should be behind tOSU and OkieState, that's fine but it's pretty tough to say. Would tOSU be undefeated against Bama's schedule with no better than they've played? Probably not. If tOSU closes out the year beating Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa, then they would deserve to be ahead of Bama in my book.

[QMany]

Oh, I'm certainly not saying Bama doesn't deserve to be in the CFB Playoff. I am just not going to throw them in front of undefeated Power-5 teams. To put them in front of tOSU is crazy when you think of what tOSU did to them in January and they haven't lost to deserve a demotion.

 

Don't even get me started on the circle-jerk right now re: SEC and the Year of the Running Back. That was last year if any this decade, and arguably the 3rd best RB in the Big Ten had 230 yards and +11 YPC against Bama.

[brophog]

You could argue Alabama or Ohio St pretty easily. In the end, Ohio St will have a chance catch up simply because their schedule is back loaded, and Alabama was front loaded.

 

Two things we must remember about the CFP vs traditional polls:

 

1) The CFP resets every week, whereas a team jumping another team without that team losing is rare in the traditional polls. Rankings don't matter at all until the last poll, and if not for ESPN these early rankings would not even exist until later.

 

2) At this point in time (though maybe not after Tuesday), Alabama and Ohio St are equal. 2 and 3 are equivalent in the final rankings. We must treat these early rankings as very relative at this point. They are nothing more than a snapshot at where the committee thinks teams are at through the present schedule.

[Redux]

I'm not really worried about Bama. If they win the SEC and go 12-1, they deserve a spot. If they lose to Auburn or Florida in the title game it won't matter because with two losses they will probably be out. I'm more worried about ND getting in unless someone can knock em out.

[QMany]

Notre Dame will be interesting.

 

I'm also intrigued by how the Big Ten scenario plays out. For example, you could have a one-loss Iowa playing a one-loss MSU in the championship game. Both of those losses could be Nebraska, and would they get it with such a bad loss (relatively)?

[Redux]

Notre Dame will be interesting.

 

I'm also intrigued by how the Big Ten scenario plays out. For example, you could have a one-loss Iowa playing a one-loss MSU in the championship game. Both of those losses could be Nebraska, and would they get it with such a bad loss (relatively)?

I think a 1 loss Big Ten champ gets in considering the liklihood of the Pac 12 champ having 2 losses and the Big 12 champ having one loss and no conference title game.

 

If ND wins out, they probably get in.

 

Clemson SHOULD win out and get in.