What Kind of Offense Are We Really Trying to Run?

[alwayshusking]

We'll run some 4 WR sets both this year and in the future but I don't think it will be the base set most years. At OSU Riley loved using the TEs, even playing multiple TEs at one time.

 

From what I understand Grim was a different type of guy and didn't feel like he fit in socially with the team. It's easier to tell the local press that the offense wasn't what you'd hoped rather than try to explain more nuanced reasons.

[zoogs]

Nebraska did not have Rex, Roy, or Ameer last year. Or anybody close. There's a reason it was a committee.

 

Maybe, again, sort of like the Lucky days where you had BJax and Helu begin to emerge late.

[Kiyoat Husker]

Thought the B1G guys mentioned seeing some blending of pro style with spread. Am I remembering that right?

[Mavric]

 

It's obvious by the type of QB's and the plethora of WR's being recruited that Riley and Langsdorf wants to have a pure, drop-back passing game. Langsdorf loves to sling the ball around, and wants a QB that can do so. They tried to do that last year with limited success with Armstrong.

 

The thing with Armstrong is that he isn't great at the throws that Riley and Langsdorf want to utilize. Armstrong is very good at the QB run plays that Riley and Langsdorf struggle to utilize. That's going to cause a strange dichotomy with the coaches and the QB. Riley probably heard from the fans and media that he should be running the ball more and his current QB doesn't should encourage more running plays.

 

However, after this year, I expect Riley and Langsdorf to go full-bore with their passing attack. That will be fine if it's successful. However, he should have something prepared for when it's cold and/or windy that many B1G games can experience. It's going to be hard for the team to "flip a switch" and be a running team when the weather dictates it.

I agree. Except the sling it around thing, well, I dont think that means 50 attempts, ala Texas Tech, baylor, etc. But i do think a more deliberate passing game based on formation. like when we line up in 3-4 wides, we're passing, cuz this provides the best chance for success with these matchups. When we line up in power sets, we're running, cuz this is what provides us best matchups for success. I think this may be what they want to get to. Then sprinkle your curveballs from there.

 

Possibly not. But we threw it 40+ times in nearly half our games last year with a marginal throwing QB and a walk-on who had barely played. So.....

[Mavric]

You're looking for a fire here, Mav, and there isn't one.

 

A true freshman in line for playing time because Nebraska plans to have so much of it to go around for receivers, doesn't care about that and still wants to leave. I think few outside Grim really understand the whole context, though it's probably for the best. He obviously wants something else.

 

I suspect the coaches aren't going to run as much as one might like for Nebraska, either. Unless we're winning handily all the time. I think back to 06 and "pound the rock", that sort of stated mentality, on a team with a bigger armed QB and a more dangerous set of receivers.

 

I'm not looking for anything. I'm trying to piece together the different things they have said - or are reported to have said.

 

You seem to be under the impression that I'm basing all this off these comments from Grim. I'm not.

[Count 'Bility]

 

 

It's obvious by the type of QB's and the plethora of WR's being recruited that Riley and Langsdorf wants to have a pure, drop-back passing game. Langsdorf loves to sling the ball around, and wants a QB that can do so. They tried to do that last year with limited success with Armstrong.

 

The thing with Armstrong is that he isn't great at the throws that Riley and Langsdorf want to utilize. Armstrong is very good at the QB run plays that Riley and Langsdorf struggle to utilize. That's going to cause a strange dichotomy with the coaches and the QB. Riley probably heard from the fans and media that he should be running the ball more and his current QB doesn't should encourage more running plays.

 

However, after this year, I expect Riley and Langsdorf to go full-bore with their passing attack. That will be fine if it's successful. However, he should have something prepared for when it's cold and/or windy that many B1G games can experience. It's going to be hard for the team to "flip a switch" and be a running team when the weather dictates it.

I agree. Except the sling it around thing, well, I dont think that means 50 attempts, ala Texas Tech, baylor, etc. But i do think a more deliberate passing game based on formation. like when we line up in 3-4 wides, we're passing, cuz this provides the best chance for success with these matchups. When we line up in power sets, we're running, cuz this is what provides us best matchups for success. I think this may be what they want to get to. Then sprinkle your curveballs from there.

 

Possibly not. But we threw it 40+ times in nearly half our games last year with a marginal throwing QB and a walk-on who had barely played. So.....

 

True. And seriously, there's really no excuse for any of those individual situations. But overall? We averaged 35 pass att/game and 38 rush att/game on offense in 2015.

[Guy Chamberlin]

 

fwiw: Mike Riley actually has a history of running the ball when he has a good running back.

Riley has had four 4* RB at his disposal here, I'm guessing more than he ever had at OSU.

 

 

I believe Riley had three running backs at OSU with 3,600+ career rushing yards, which would have put them in Nebraska's all-time Top 6.

 

He also recruited career 5,000 yard rusher Ken Simonton away from USC and made him the first Pac 10 Freshman to rush for over 1,000 yards.

 

When he had future NFL starters Derek Anderson and Stevan Jackson as QB & RB on the same offense, they both got a lot of calls. Jackson had 350 carries in his season with Riley.

 

I don't remember the fans being all that wowed by the post-Abdullah stable of running backs at Nebraska, but maybe I'm wrong. Riley did inherit what was widely considered the best WR unit in the Big 10, so I'm not sure 2015 was exactly a "pound the rock!" year.

[Guy Chamberlin]

 

fwiw: Mike Riley actually has a history of running the ball when he has a good running back.

 

fwiw: Mike Riley was actually calling plays at that time. Mike Riley is no longer calling plays.

 

 

Are you suggesting that a team would run an offense counter to its head coach's preferences?

 

Its offensive minded head coach?

[Mavric]

 

 

fwiw: Mike Riley actually has a history of running the ball when he has a good running back.

 

fwiw: Mike Riley was actually calling plays at that time. Mike Riley is no longer calling plays.

 

Are you suggesting that a team would run an offense counter to its head coach's preferences?

 

Its offensive minded head coach?

 

Not counter. But different is entirely possible.

[Mavric]

And actually it's not even different. It's just the version where they passed most of the time.

[Kiyoat Husker]

I'm not sure about run/pass split, but I do know that Riley's/Langsdorf's offenses at OSU were very productive through the air. The Beavers were usually top-25 and often top-10 in passing yards.

[Guy Chamberlin]

 

How about we look at facts on this instead of just going with everyone's feelings on what they'll run or what they did run at Oregon State?

 

2014 - 472 pass (3305 yards), 376 rush (1417 yards)(RB committee) - 56% pass to 44% run

2013 - 625 pass (4844 yards), 355 rush (1227 yards) (RB committee) - 64% pass to 36% run

2012 - 504 pass (3992 yards), 442 rush (1617 yards) (Storm Barrs Woods almos 1k) - 53% pass to 47% run

2011 - 503 pass (3441 yards), 318 rush (143 yards) (RB committee) - 61% pass to 39% run

2010 - 375 pass (2483 yards), 384 rush (1435 yards) (Jacquizz Rodgers 1184) - 49% pass to 51% run

2009 - 478 pass (3520 yards), 440 rush (1818 yards) (Jacquizz Rodgers 1440) - 52% pass to 48% run

2008 - 448 pass (3237 yards), 487 rush (2055 yards) (Jacquizz Rodgers 1253) - 48% pass to 52% run

2007 - 438 pass (2557 yards), 541 rush (2274 yards) (Yvenson Bernard 1214) - 45% pass to 55% run

2006 - 425 pass (3393 yards), 474 rush (1655 yards) (Yvenson Bernard 1307) - 47% pass to 53% run

2005 - 459 pass (3261 yards), 415 rush (1348 yards) (Yvenson Bernard 1321) - 52% pass to 48% run

Went back with the last 10 years of stats for Mike Riley at Oregon State. 4 out of 10 seasons they ran more than they passed (2006, 2007, 2008, 2010). In those seasons, they had a bell cow running back that they stuck behind who was talented enough to rush for over 1k yards. When they didn't have this, they passed more...but only slightly more. They passed a heckuva lot more when they had a great QB and good receivers in later years.

By all means, continue to think that Nebraska will be the next air raid offense with 50 attempts every game. The statistics don't support that. They support that we'll be an offense that uses their best offensive weapon the most...whether that be the recievers/QB or the RB.

 

 

Thanks for doing that. Again, you can also tack on the one season Riley had with RBs Stevan Jackson and Ken Simonton where they were fully utilized in the offense.

 

Riley is on record as saying he perhaps leaned too much on Sean Mannion during his last few seasons at OSU, but since he had a QB who was indeed NFL caliber, he went in that direction.

[84HuskerLaw]

The stats surely indicate that Riley and Company like to throw but also will run the ball to keep the opponent off balance. It appears they will do what they believe will work the best. Bearing in mind that the seasons in which Riley had excellent throwing QBs and guys who could catch and run after the catch, the passing game would naturally be very effective in making bigger plays. Riley has said a number of times that he believes that successful scoring drives tend to include a several plays with gains of 15 or 20 yards are made.

 

I think it can be accurately said that for most 'average' teams, sustaining long, methodical drives with consistent 4 and 5 yard gains is very difficult. Eventually, most teams suffer a couple negative or very little gained type plays. Once the down and distance become problematic (e.g. 2&8 plus or 3 & 5 plus), then the defense has the advantage. You need to average over 4 yards on run plays on first down and need to keep the 3rd down to less than 3 in my view. 3rd and four or more is a passing situation for most teams against better than average opponents.

 

Historically, with Nebraska's great running teams, 3rd and 4 or 5 were still 'running' downs and getting the first down as still quite possible and depending on field position, many drives could be viewed as 4 down territory once beyond the mid field point. 4th and one or two could be considered as 'advantage offense' for us. Defenses therefore had to play the run first and hope we didn't throw a short sideline out or some kind of tight end over the middle.

 

I tend to believe, based on the ten years of stats shown for Riley's Beavers teams, that they were not stout enough up front to control the ball by running right at the defenses they tended to face. Therefore, the run game was more often used to keep the pass defense honest and make them respect the run. Ideally, of course, an offensive coordinator will want to establish the run by having enough success running to force the defense to play the run first. Many defensive coaches will follow the simple rule that you must stop the run first and then play pass defense in the obvious passing situations accordingly. The great defenses will be talented enough to stop the run without having to overplay the run. They will have big quick front four and speedy linebackers that are superior tacklers and can move laterally and not be overwhelmed by bigger running backs who can push the pile. In other words, you must have LBs that can run 4.6 or better to be able to close and stop the play near the line of scrimmage and not 4 or 5 yards beyond there.

 

I tend to believe, as we approach the start of the season, that we will have a little less effective run defense but considerably better pass defense. Especially in the first game or two. But our new D line will play tougher as they get more experience. They will have to play 'lights out' vs Oregon and we will be in serious trouble. We will have to guess right on some critical plays in that game or will find ourselves on the short end of a high scoring game.

 

Our LBs will be much more active and make more tackles than last year. This assumes that our D line can be effective in occupying the O linement and keeping them off the backers so they can use their athleticism to make the plays. We may give up an extra yard or so on the first down runs but unless the opponent's coaches are patient and willing to try to run right at us, we will be successful enough in a base defense to not have to make ourselves vulnerable to the pass to help in the run stops.

 

I base this all on my gut hunches from the limited information we seem to get out of practice reports and less than sufficient raw data on heights, weights, speed and etc. Maybe I will be surprised. We will know soon enough I suppose. To answer the query posed in the thread, I think Riley will run the ball first until we are not be successful in gaining 4 or more on first down. Then he will resort to the passing game. I don't think he is so stuck on the forward pass that he will not give the run game a real opportunity to work. He will throw on first down IF he does not believe the run game will be effective enough. See the UCLA game for reference.

[marko polo]

 

 

It's obvious by the type of QB's and the plethora of WR's being recruited that Riley and Langsdorf wants to have a pure, drop-back passing game. Langsdorf loves to sling the ball around, and wants a QB that can do so. They tried to do that last year with limited success with Armstrong.

 

The thing with Armstrong is that he isn't great at the throws that Riley and Langsdorf want to utilize. Armstrong is very good at the QB run plays that Riley and Langsdorf struggle to utilize. That's going to cause a strange dichotomy with the coaches and the QB. Riley probably heard from the fans and media that he should be running the ball more and his current QB doesn't should encourage more running plays.

 

However, after this year, I expect Riley and Langsdorf to go full-bore with their passing attack. That will be fine if it's successful. However, he should have something prepared for when it's cold and/or windy that many B1G games can experience. It's going to be hard for the team to "flip a switch" and be a running team when the weather dictates it.

I agree. Except the sling it around thing, well, I dont think that means 50 attempts, ala Texas Tech, baylor, etc. But i do think a more deliberate passing game based on formation. like when we line up in 3-4 wides, we're passing, cuz this provides the best chance for success with these matchups. When we line up in power sets, we're running, cuz this is what provides us best matchups for success. I think this may be what they want to get to. Then sprinkle your curveballs from there.

 

Possibly not. But we threw it 40+ times in nearly half our games last year with a marginal throwing QB and a walk-on who had barely played. So.....

 

this exactly, and there are a couple of other advantages to being a running "mindset" team. It is a more physical brand of play, think boxing and body shots, hell after enough of them it takes the starch out of you. Also if you have a marginal to average defense the time of possession thing can really be your friend. A whole tough impose your will mentally can really pay off if you are not loaded with talent.

[RedDenver]

Thought the B1G guys mentioned seeing some blending of pro style with spread. Am I remembering that right?

I'm not sure if it was the BTN guys, but I saw that too. I heard there were a few teams trying to blend pro and spread. What that means or how it's implemented, I have no idea. Anybody know about this?