Big 10 West Race

[huskerfan92]

Winning the division feels like a pipe dream now, I guess we'll see

 

Why? We control our own destiny

[everybody knows my name]

Your boys looked tough last night. Frankly I was surprised that they didn't win it.

 

In any case, the Nebraska-Minnesota game in two weeks is looking pretty big right now. Not that you guys can look past Ohio State, and my Gophers can't even overlook lowly Purdue. But that upcoming game looks to have serious implications.

[Landlord]

A couple somebodies have got to rise up and make a play.

 

 

Wish we had someone on our team with a name that rhymes with Late Berry that could do something like this.

[Bigdsrip]

I have to say I think it is more likely that UW loses to Northwestern than Nebraska beats OSU. Nebraska D really struggled containing the edge and got some gifts from UW's QBs that kept the game close. I see OSU's speed on the edge giving Nebraska fits and TA looked like he was running on fumes by the end of the game yesterday and looked pretty poor throughout (12-31 159 0-2 isn't going to get it done unless the other team plays like crap). Nebraska is on the right track and showed much improved mental toughness but I think they still have a ways to go to really compete for league titles. Giving up 10 yards per carry to a backup RB, many of which came late in the game after your D wore down, while your QB completes less than 40% of his passes with two terrible picks sounds disturbingly familiar.

 

Evanston has been UW's bugaboo forever (lost the last 4 games there) and I wouldn't be shocked to see a bit of a mental lapse from UW now that the ridiculous part of the schedule is over. Badgers could very well lose next week opening up the West for NU, but I think OSU is going to be a rude awakening for the Huskers.

[Landlord]

Both teams have decent if not good chances of dropping at least one more game.

 

Wisconsin at Northwestern next week is gonna be a battle. They also end against Minnesota in a big rivalry game. We've obviously got OSU, but Minnesota and Iowa are both going to be really tough games as well.

 

To say that it comes down to UW/NW and NU/OSU is way too premature. There's three huge games after that.

[Saunders]

The reality is, we're a healthy OL (or a PI call) from winning that game. I think we've got a shot next weekend at OSU, and if we somehow pull it off, we can get to Indy.

[Kiyoat Husker]

Here (again) are statistical profiles of Nebraska's schedule based on the F/+ rankings:

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-nebraska-advanced-statistical-profile

 

And the FPI rankings:

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2016

 

Chances of a Husker victory in it's remaining games:

 

Ohio State: 19% / 14% (Ave: 16.5%)

Minnesota: 65% / 76% (Ave: 70.5%)

Maryland: 82% / 83% (Ave: 82.5%)

Iowa: 56% / 50% (Ave: 53%)

 

odds of winning out (one conference loss) = 5.0%

odds of finishing with two conference losses = 33.4%

[Kiyoat Husker]

Chances of a Badger victory in it's remaining games:

 

Northwestern: 76%/66% (Ave: 71%)

Illinois: 95%/93% (Ave: 94%)

Purdue: 97%/93% (Ave: 95%)

Minnesota 79%/82% (Ave: 80.5%)

 

Odds of winning out (two conf. losses) = 51.0%

[Kiyoat Husker]

Chances of a Wildcat victory in its remaining games:

 

Wisconsin: 24/34 (Ave: 29%)

Purdue: 84/83 (Ave: 83.5%)

Minnesota: 38/47 (Ave: 42.5%)

Illinois: 96/84 (Ave: 90%)

 

Odds of winning out (two conf losses) = 9.3%

[Kiyoat Husker]

Chances of a Gopher victory in its remaining games:

 

Purdue 93/88 (90.5%)

Nebraska 35/24 (29.5%)

Northwestern 62/53 (57.5%)

Wisconsin 21/18 (19.5%)

 

Odds of winning out (two conf. losses) = 3.0%

[Kiyoat Husker]

Chances of an Iowa victory in it's remaining games:

 

Penn State: 24/34 (29%)

Michigan: 7/12 (9.5%)

Illinois 75/77 (76%)

Nebraska 44/50 (47%)

 

Odds of winning out (2 conf. losses) = 1.0%

[Kiyoat Husker]

Total odds for conference winners (I think)

 

One-conf-loss Nebraska champions = 5.0%

 

Two-conf-loss Wisconsin champions = 51%(Wisc wins out) x 95%(Nebraska loses at least one more) = 48.5%

Two-conf-loss Nebraska champions = 33.4%(NU 2 loss) x 49% (Wisc loses at least one more) = 16.4%

Two-conf-loss Northwestern champs = 9.3% (NW 2 loss) x 61.6% (Nebraska loses at least two more) x 99% (Iowa loses at least one more) = 5.7%

Two-conf-loss Minnesota champs = 3.0% (MN 2 loss) x 99% (Iowa loses at least one more) = 3.0%

 

Chance of a Three-conference-loss champion = 21.4%

[Kiyoat Husker]

I have no idea how to calculate out all the possibilities for a 3-loss champ, so I'll just assume it would be proportional to the odds of a 1 or 2-loss champ. Adding it all together..........

 

Possible odds of winning the division:

Wisconsin: 62%

Nebraska: 27%

Northwestern: 7%

Minnesota: 4%

Iowa: <1%

[Red Five]

I would not be the least bit surprised if NW beats Wisky this weekend. The game is a 11am kick in Evanston, therefore there will be no atmosphere. NW seems to be playing good ball lately (beat Iowa, whooped MSU, took OSU to the end). And Wisconsin is beat up and has to be mentally spent after playing 4 dog fights in a row (Mich, OSU, Iowa, NU).

[MichiganDad3]

I have to say I think it is more likely that UW loses to Northwestern than Nebraska beats OSU. Nebraska D really struggled containing the edge and got some gifts from UW's QBs that kept the game close. I see OSU's speed on the edge giving Nebraska fits and TA looked like he was running on fumes by the end of the game yesterday and looked pretty poor throughout (12-31 159 0-2 isn't going to get it done unless the other team plays like crap). Nebraska is on the right track and showed much improved mental toughness but I think they still have a ways to go to really compete for league titles. Giving up 10 yards per carry to a backup RB, many of which came late in the game after your D wore down, while your QB completes less than 40% of his passes with two terrible picks sounds disturbingly familiar.

 

Evanston has been UW's bugaboo forever (lost the last 4 games there) and I wouldn't be shocked to see a bit of a mental lapse from UW now that the ridiculous part of the schedule is over. Badgers could very well lose next week opening up the West for NU, but I think OSU is going to be a rude awakening for the Huskers.

OSU has a top passing D. I think TA will struggle passing.