The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[knapplc]

13 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

And part of the "oops" comes from making the safe choice, then quickly realizing Joe Biden is shakier than you thought. 

 

Where do you come up with this?

[Guy Chamberlin]

18 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Good points, turnout is what ultimately matters. Enthusiasm polling is only a proxy for how many will turnout on election day.

 

You have to live with the proxy until the turnout actually happens.

 

From the beginning, the political scientists were suggesting that Not Trump was the #1 criteria and perhaps the only criteria, and that still bodes well for Biden winning the election.  

 

For some of us it just feels like a lost opportunity to generate excitement, legitimate change, and to engage the next generation of voters. In 2020, we should have done better than Joe Biden. It's going to take some getting used to. 

 

[knapplc]

Just now, Guy Chamberlin said:

When he opens his mouth.

 

This wouldn't be something the world "realized" after Biden won the nomination.  Clearly there was another meaning to this statement:

 

19 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

And part of the "oops" comes from making the safe choice, then quickly realizing Joe Biden is shakier than you thought. 

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

20 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Well, not really. The last six Dems all led Trump in the polls. Sanders and Biden just a few points ahead of the pack. They all would bring the same Not Trump credentials to the General, where Blue No Matter Who would supposedly kick in. ¹

 

If you're talking about Hunter Biden, that was not only an opportunity to smear Trump's most likely opponent at the time, it was a chance to smear all the hypocritical Dems who were hounding him about Russia and Ukraine. It didn't really blow up in their faces since they will gleefully revive Hunter Biden for the General. Trump and the GOP had a takedown narrative for every legitimate threat -- and my guess is Donald feared Mike Bloomberg more than anyone. ²

 

Given the circumstances and options, was Joe Biden the best or safest bet for Democrats to rally around?  Yeah. I think so.

 

But having secured presumptive nominee status, only 24% of likely Dem voters are "very excited" about voting for Joe Biden, as opposed to 48% of Republican voters who are "very excited" about voting for Donald Trump. That's a serious enthusiasm gap. That's what I'm really talking about here. Biden only wins by driving the fence-sitters to the polls.³  

 

And part of the "oops" comes from making the safe choice, then quickly realizing Joe Biden is shakier than you thought. ⁴

 

It's still May. A lot can happen. But it's not all on Biden doubters. Joe Biden still needs to step up and earn it. I'm very open to that happening. ⁵

 

¹ For as meh as Biden is for a lot of people, that can be a strength as well as a weakness. If meh is good enough to depress turnout among potential Trump voters (if not outright pull them into the Biden camp), that's a win we would not have gotten with say Sanders or Warren heading the ticket.

 

² Oh baloney. Bloomberg was great at needling Trump personally and ran a great digital campaign but as a candidate he was miserable. Trump has always feared Biden most of all as I'll show in a minute.

 

³ Yeah, enthusiasm tends to run high inside of cults. I've already said I'm not concerned about enthusiasm at this specific point in time as Biden continues leading polls in all the important states.

 

⁴ He's really not. To borrow inspiration from Dennis Green, he is who we thought he was. Flawed, to be sure, but now the GOP slime machine is running full tilt and a lot of people are getting suckered into getting a bit worried. I'm not.

 

⁵ Well, yeah. Well said. We're all stuck in wait and see mode because there's not much else we can do.

[Guy Chamberlin]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

6 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

And part of the "oops" comes from making the safe choice, then quickly realizing Joe Biden is shakier than you thought. 

 

Where do you come up with this?

 

When he opens his mouth. 

 

Wait. Do you think I'm the only person who feels this way?

 

Every Democrat I know plans to vote for Joe Biden, and every one of them has flinched at some of Joe's speeches and choices since he became the presumptive nominee. The enthusiasm poll I cited suggests I'm not making this up. 

[knapplc]

Just now, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

When he opens his mouth. 

 

Wait. Do you think I'm the only person who feels this way?

 

Every Democrat I know plans to vote for Joe Biden, and every one of them has flinched at some of Joe's speeches and choices since he became the presumptive nominee. The enthusiasm poll I cited suggests I'm not making this up. 

 

I think everyone has felt this way about Biden for more than a decade. Which makes that statement all the more odd. His patterns of speech haven't markedly changed since he was VP. Or in the Senate. He's always put his foot in his mouth.

 

And even odder still, since really the only thing that's changed since Biden became the presumptive nominee is the amended accusation by Ms. Reade.

 

But if you say you were only commenting about how he speaks, I believe you.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[RedDenver]

2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

His patterns of speech haven't markedly changed since he was VP. Or in the Senate.

I strongly disagree. Watch him from his debates in 2008 and 2012 and then watch him now. He gets confused about his own words now that didn't happen to him then.

[Danny Bateman]

34 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

It's certainly possible. Biden has been reaching out to progressives, so maybe he'll give me something to vote for instead of just something I'll be voting against.

 

I must have missed that or forgotten. Can you link some articles?

 

Sure!

 

Part one, Trump fears Biden:

 

How Trump’s Biden mania led him to the brink of impeachment

 

Did Trump Lose His Big Gamble on Biden?

 

Trump Reveals His Two Great Fears: Joe Biden, and Losing Fox News

 

58 reasons to think Donald Trump is scared of Joe Biden

 

Scoop: Trump fears Biden 2020, losing Pennsylvania

 

Part two, Republicans were excited to run against Bernie:

 

Down-ballot Republicans watch with glee as Sanders gains steam

 

Republicans pray for Bernie as Democratic nominee

 

Some Tea Party Republicans in South Carolina are voting for Bernie Sanders

 

You can disagree with their opinions on the merits but sometimes it is instructive to try to see life from the perspective of people you disagree with or in politics your adversaries. These stories paint a very clear picture. Trump was clearly so preoccupied with Biden that he got himself impeached trying to sully him and has dedicated a ton of time and energy trying to continue doing so.

 

Conversely, Republicans were hopping with joy on Bernie's ascendancy, which coincided with Biden's tumble. One wonders which they were more happy about.

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

Enthusiasm is overrated. Bernies best/most enthusiastic voter base actually turned out less than they did in 2016 (compared to the whole)! So apparently enthusiasm is not leading to more people going to the polls. This data + increased numbers in many states, tells me that Biden's base came out in droves.

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

6 minutes ago, knapplc said:

I think everyone has felt this way about Biden for more than a decade. Which makes that statement all the more odd. His patterns of speech haven't markedly changed since he was VP. Or in the Senate. He's always put his foot in his mouth.

 

And even odder still, since really the only thing that's changed since Biden became the presumptive nominee is the amended accusation by Ms. Reade.

 

But if you say you were only commenting about how he speaks, I believe you.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Biden's been gaffing and misspeaking since the 70's.

 

It hasn't stopped him yet and it won't now. Now if we got some actual evidence that there was a sizable chunk of voters out there who explicitly state, "Nope, I'm not voting for Biden because he don't talk good" maybe we can start to be concerned about it.

[RedDenver]

5 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Sure!

 

Part one, Trump fears Biden:

 

How Trump’s Biden mania led him to the brink of impeachment

 

Did Trump Lose His Big Gamble on Biden?

 

Trump Reveals His Two Great Fears: Joe Biden, and Losing Fox News

 

58 reasons to think Donald Trump is scared of Joe Biden

 

Scoop: Trump fears Biden 2020, losing Pennsylvania

 

Part two, Republicans were excited to run against Bernie:

 

Down-ballot Republicans watch with glee as Sanders gains steam

 

Republicans pray for Bernie as Democratic nominee

 

Some Tea Party Republicans in South Carolina are voting for Bernie Sanders

 

You can disagree with their opinions on the merits but sometimes it is instructive to try to see life from the perspective of people you disagree with or in politics your adversaries. These stories paint a very clear picture. Trump was clearly so preoccupied with Biden that he got himself impeached trying to sully him and has dedicated a ton of time and energy trying to continue doing so.

 

Conversely, Republicans were hopping with joy on Bernie's ascendancy, which coincided with Biden's tumble. One wonders which they were more happy about.

 

Ok, so just some opinion pieces. Looks to me like Trump running the same campaign he did against Hillary to me, nothing to suggest he's any more afraid of Biden than any other candidate.

 

As for Bernie there's just as many opinions that say the opposite:

Why Trump Fears Bernie Sanders

 

'The Only One I Didn't Want Her to Pick': In Secret Recording, Trump Admits Fear of Clinton Picking Sanders as VP in 2016

 

TRUMP IS GROWING CONCERNED ABOUT BERNIE SANDERS, WHILE HIS ADVISERS THINK THE VERMONT SENATOR WILL BE EASY TO BEAT

[knapplc]

2 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Ok, so just some opinion pieces. Looks to me like Trump running the same campaign he did against Hillary to me, nothing to suggest he's any more afraid of Biden than any other candidate.

 

As for Bernie there's just as many opinions that say the opposite:

Why Trump Fears Bernie Sanders

 

'The Only One I Didn't Want Her to Pick': In Secret Recording, Trump Admits Fear of Clinton Picking Sanders as VP in 2016

 

TRUMP IS GROWING CONCERNED ABOUT BERNIE SANDERS, WHILE HIS ADVISERS THINK THE VERMONT SENATOR WILL BE EASY TO BEAT

 

What do you think would be in the news right now if Bernie were the odds-on nominee?

[RedDenver]

1 minute ago, knapplc said:

 

What do you think would be in the news right now if Bernie were the odds-on nominee?

Stuff about how socialism is the devil.

[knapplc]

Just now, RedDenver said:

Stuff about how socialism is the devil.

 

And scandals? Any scandals suddenly popping up, or no?

[RedDenver]

Just now, knapplc said:

 

And scandals? Any scandals suddenly popping up, or no?

Much like Obama, I'm sure there would be attempts at scandals but again like Obama I don't think they would land against Bernie. I'm guessing it'd be stuff like the Repub that called for an FBI investigation of Bernie's wife which went no where.

 

TBF, I think other Dem candidates would also be largely immune to smears and not just Bernie. I think Biden is uniquely able to be smeared because of his history of inappropriate touching that's been caught on video multiple times.