Could Stanley Morgan's greatness hampered Martinez's view of the offense?

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, runningblind said:

And Tanner Lee had 500 more passing yards in 2017 than Adrian last year.  Not all stats are created equally.

 

There's a lot more to take into account with a QB, like completion % and TD to INT ratio, and rushing yards. Martinez is better based on a bunch of other stats. What stats show Morgan was so much better in 2018 than he was in 2017 that it's evidence that Frost's offense is the biggest reason for his success?

 

Morgan:

2017: 16.16 ypc

2018: 14.34 ypc

 

2017 Lee: 7.3 ypa

2018 Martinez: 7.5 ypa

[NoLongerN]

The "64% completion rate" for Martinez that gets used as an argument for how much better he will get just doesn't hold water for me.

 

Sure, he is gonna get better and improve.  Yet, there are all kinds of working parts to an offense.  For me, one cant say that he will improve from 64% to even better.  It's not about that percentage increasing to me.  He will get better, sure, but it won't or doesn't mean he goes up to 66%, then 70%, then 72%. This isn't realistic or fair.

 

I liken this to running a marathon or running a faster mile.  As one who was trying to break the 04:00:00 mark, it's one thing to lower a pace for a mile.  It's quite a other to sustain it over 26.2 miles with all the ups and downs of what you can control verses what you can't.  Their is quite a lot of effort and conditions that go into improving a pace or percentage to make it a lower pace or higher percentage when you get that low or high.

 

All that go say ... I will be totally happy to see AM improve as a QB and hover around 60% completion rate while becoming smarter and a better leader in developing the team as a whole.  Finally, he certainly has the potential to increase his completion percentage  ... but his greatness isn't going to be measured by just this one factor.

[Nebfanatic]

15 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

The "64% completion rate" for Martinez that gets used as an argument for how much better he will get just doesn't hold water for me.

 

Sure, he is gonna get better and improve.  Yet, there are all kinds of working parts to an offense.  For me, one cant say that he will improve from 64% to even better.  It's not about that percentage increasing to me.  He will get better, sure, but it won't or doesn't mean he goes up to 66%, then 70%, then 72%. This isn't realistic or fair.

 

I liken this to running a marathon or running a faster mile.  As one who was trying to break the 04:00:00 mark, it's one thing to lower a pace for a mile.  It's quite a other to sustain it over 26.2 miles with all the ups and downs of what you can control verses what you can't.  Their is quite a lot of effort and conditions that go into improving a pace or percentage to make it a lower pace or higher percentage when you get that low or high.

 

All that go say ... I will be totally happy to see AM improve as a QB and hover around 60% completion rate while becoming smarter and a better leader in developing the team as a whole.  Finally, he certainly has the potential to increase his completion percentage  ... but his greatness isn't going to be measured by just this one factor.

I don't think anyone is expecting his completion percentage to continually rise and will be mad if it doesn't, its just a good stat to show off his accuracy and decision making as a freshman especially compared to what we have had in the past. It's the best completion percentage by any freshman in Husker history. Thats a big deal.

[brophog]

49 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

I will be totally happy to see AM improve as a QB and hover around 60% completion rate while becoming smarter and a better leader in developing the team as a whole. 

 

That would be considered very low for this style of offense, and a strong indicator of poor decision making in this particular scheme.

[NoLongerN]

1 hour ago, brophog said:

 

That would be considered very low for this style of offense, and a strong indicator of poor decision making in this particular scheme.

 

So, can you go on record and tell us the percentage that shows he's a great QB?  He has to be 70%, 75%, 80%?  Also, how much more of the offense does he have to shoulder to become great?

 

I'm simply thinking the expectations can be more modest on improvement rather than what I'm hearing.  There are other issues in each game that will factor into all this.

[WyoHusker56]

5 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

 

So, can you go on record and tell us the percentage that shows he's a great QB?  He has to be 70%, 75%, 80%?  Also, how much more of the offense does he have to shoulder to become great?

 

I'm simply thinking the expectations can be more modest on improvement rather than what I'm hearing.  There are other issues in each game that will factor into all this.

 

Mariota had an over 68% completion rate in this offense twice. Milton was 67% in 2017. So, I think you could expect his completion rate to get into the 68-70 range depending on a variety of factors like you say. 

 

I don't disagree that measuring him by completion rate is unfair or he should have an expected rate. However, I think it's very likely it increases from 64. 

[Nebfanatic]

4 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

 

So, can you go on record and tell us the percentage that shows he's a great QB?  He has to be 70%, 75%, 80%?  Also, how much more of the offense does he have to shoulder to become great?

 

I'm simply thinking the expectations can be more modest on improvement rather than what I'm hearing.  There are other issues in each game that will factor into all this.

Has anyone said 'if he doesn't throw 70% completions this year he isn't improving?' You are reading way too far into this my man

[NoLongerN]

11 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Has anyone said 'if he doesn't throw 70% completions this year he isn't improving?' You are reading way too far into this my man

 

It's actually the other way around ... if you read my posts.  I'm fine with small improvements and/or around 60%.  I simply believe the system works as a whole rather than one "stud" part.  We will need WR's catching, TE's blocking and catching, etc, for AM to keep that 65% and get better, along with OL improvement and balanced running attack.  Those things contribute to the numbers.  

 

Thus, I'm not the one reading way into anything.  I'm bringing balance to the discussion.  But again, I'm a 7-5 or 8-4 expectation.  Those who are Natty or 10-2 type folks ... well, we have totally different expectations and views.  AM will be an absolute beast this year for that to happen.

[Moiraine]

I think it’s unlikely if he completes 60% of his passes this year that he’s improved as a QB. I understand why it’s possible, I just think it’s unlikely.

 

It’s also unlikely that it’ll happen, period. Unless he gets injured. His worst 2 games he was in the 40s, and it was snowing and really windy or he was injured. Most of our seasons haven’t had a game with weather as bad as the MSU game. Additionally we won’t be playing Michigan, so that’s one less good defense. 

 

But I agree with others, no one was really obsessing over this. 

[Nebfanatic]

7 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

 

It's actually the other way around ... if you read my posts.  I'm fine with small improvements and/or around 60%.  I simply believe the system works as a whole rather than one "stud" part.  We will need WR's catching, TE's blocking and catching, etc, for AM to keep that 65% and get better, along with OL improvement and balanced running attack.  Those things contribute to the numbers.  

 

Thus, I'm not the one reading way into anything.  I'm bringing balance to the discussion.  But again, I'm a 7-5 or 8-4 expectation.  Those who are Natty or 10-2 type folks ... well, we have totally different expectations and views.  AM will be an absolute beast this year for that to happen.

You are so hung up on the completion percentage, but no one is throwing around expectations for Martinez to improve it drastically. You are reading way too far into this my man.

 

I expect Martinez to be much better this year, but that will show in the total yardage, total touchdowns and lack of turnovers more than any improvement in completion percentage.

[brophog]

24 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

I think it’s unlikely if he completes 60% of his passes this year that he’s improved as a QB. I understand why it’s possible, I just think it’s unlikely.

 

 

I don’t understand how it’s possible, in this offense. The baseline is simply too high in an offense built on screens and RPOs. If you’re making good decisions, those are going to be very high percentage passes. Adrian also throws a good deep ball, so again, if he’s making good decisions expect a lot of high completion throws.

 

 

[In the Deed the Glory]

21 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

But he only had 18 more yards last year than in 2017...

Ok, but we aren't talking about stats.  Morgan had a better year because the running game support helped eliminate double coverage and the amount of snaps helped him.  He had 9 more catches and 4 fewer drops last year, mostly because he was more open.

 

Also, let's just be honest.  Morgan was the second best receiver on the team last year.  After 10 games JD had 7 more receptions and was our #1 option.  Martinez didn't force balls to Morgan, because JD was his #1 option most of the year.  Frost moved JD around so much that it made defenses guess constantly what was going on, and it allowed Stanley a lot of 10-15 yard routes with one-on-one coverage.  He was our third down guy, which is great.  The safety help went to JD, because he is a much bigger problem for defenses than Morgan was.

[brophog]

59 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

 

So, can you go on record and tell us the percentage that shows he's a great QB?  He has to be 70%, 75%, 80%?  Also, how much more of the offense does he have to shoulder to become great?

 

 

Too high of a completion percentage can also be a warning sign, over a long sample size. Every decision has some degree of risk, and if you’re not taking a little risk as a QB you are not maximizing your gains. In the case of our offense last year, in comparison to this offense’s standard, one area that needs improving are deep passes. It’s probably more the case of having only 2 receivers last year than any other factor, and I expect it to improve this year.

 

65%-70% is a good gauge, but it’s important to understand it’s just one indicator. A much better single indicator is yards per attempt, which given it’s a rate will naturally account for completion percentage as a component. Anything above 10 yards per attempt is a great indicator for this offense.

 

To your last question, this is a QB centric offense. That’s why Frost secured the best QB coach, that’s why in getting the job an immediate  priority was to get the best QB. When this offense is run correctly, it puts up Heisman numbers. That is the standard, as met by multiple preceding QB’s, and the one expected of Adrian.

[brophog]

11 minutes ago, In the Deed the Glory said:

The safety help went to JD, because he is a much bigger problem for defenses than Morgan was.

 

I think JD is the bigger problem, I agree there, and I’d say that was the case under Frost and Riley.

 

But safety alignment against this offense is first and foremost about the screen and box counts. Frost leverages this with extensive use of unbalanced sets like trips, quads, and empty.

[Moiraine]

28 minutes ago, In the Deed the Glory said:

Ok, but we aren't talking about stats.  Morgan had a better year because the running game support helped eliminate double coverage and the amount of snaps helped him.  He had 9 more catches and 4 fewer drops last year, mostly because he was more open.

 

Also, let's just be honest.  Morgan was the second best receiver on the team last year.  After 10 games JD had 7 more receptions and was our #1 option.  Martinez didn't force balls to Morgan, because JD was his #1 option most of the year.  Frost moved JD around so much that it made defenses guess constantly what was going on, and it allowed Stanley a lot of 10-15 yard routes with one-on-one coverage.  He was our third down guy, which is great.  The safety help went to JD, because he is a much bigger problem for defenses than Morgan was.

 

 

Saying we aren’t talking stats is just weird in this conversation, especially when you bring up stats later. If you’re gonna say Frost was “the biggest reason for Stanley’s success,” you need to show a clear difference between Frost’s first year and Riley’s last, and it just isn’t there for Morgan. 

 

Also, Morgan played in 11 games in 2017.