2020 Previews: Athlon - Early Big Ten Football Predictions

[Saunders]

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2020 Previews: Athlon - Early Big Ten Football Predictions

The Big Ten should have plenty of competitive races in both divisions in 2020, but it's no surprise Ohio State is the team projected as the very early favorite next fall. The Buckeyes are primed for another playoff run thanks to the return of quarterback Justin Fields and one of college football's top rosters. Penn State should be Ohio State's top competition in the East, with Michigan coming in at No. 3. Wisconsin tops the very early predictions in the West Division, but Minnesota and Iowa aren't far behind. The next tier features a tight battle between Nebraska, Illinois and Purdue. 

 

It’s never too early to think about predictions or rankings for the 2020 college football season. With that in mind, Athlon provides its early power rankings for the Big Ten for 2020...

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West Division

4. Nebraska

Nebraska didn’t quite make the jump most expected in 2019, but the program’s trajectory still seems to be trending up under coach Scott Frost. The depth chart will get instant help from a standout recruiting class, but Frost’s team has to get off to a quick start in 2020 with Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota all slated for the back half of the schedule. Getting back to a bowl will require quarterback Adrian Martinez to get back to his 2018 production and development from an offensive line that had an uneven performance in ’19. Running back Dedrick Mills and receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and JD Spielman headline the key returning skill players for Martinez next fall. Nebraska’s defense showed slight improvement in 2019 but more is needed. The Cornhuskers lose a key cog at every level, as linebacker Mohamed Barry (89 tackles), cornerback Lamar Jackson and linemen Carlos Davis, Darrion Daniels and Khalil Davis are out of eligibility. Picking Nebraska at No. 4 in the very early picks requires a bit of a leap, but the guess here is Frost and the staff still have this program on track, while the offense improves with a healthy year out of Martinez.

 

 

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-football-predictions-early-2020

[84HuskerLaw]

Seems very reasonable to me.  This squad will be young but experience at most positions returns.  

1. Offense - has a chance to be much improved with loads more consistency at every spot even at WR where several frosh will be expected to find playing time beyond token 4 snaps in 4 games red shirt ploy. If the newbies add depth there i expect a bunp of 75 yards a game / 4 more first downs and 10 pts + scoring boost.  

2.  Defense -  despite a few D line losses i expect moderate gains in overall defensive stats with more 3&outs, more ints, more TFLs and no more points allowed.  This is especially true in second half of the season imo.  We may be a tad ragged to start with a couple extra big plays in the run defense allowed but we will tighten up by game 4 as experience is developed barring early injuries in our LBs group.  I’ll predict the LBs will be exceptional by late Oct. 

3.   Special teams - dramatic strides will be on display as more time and energy and speed and aggressive scheming come to the fore.  No longer the forgotten bunch, they will be key parts of two games we werent supposed to win !   A few early bugs and may not have all comference specialists but it wont be a hold your breath and pray situation to punt or place kick.  I predict at least 4 TDs by the return teams this year. 

Kool aid?   No - but I do drink lots of watermelon Propel these days!!

GBR.  

 

[Undone]

There isn't all that much to even add to Athlon's write-up. One thing though is the wildcard of the young talent on offense combined with the addition of Omar Manning.

 

On paper we probably have as much talent on our offense as Wisconsin & Minnesota do, but we have a new offensive coordinator and honestly some returning offensive players that played some pretty uninspired football last year.

 

I think our defense is quietly making good, steady progress under Chinander and I somehow feel much better about that side of the ball as we head into year three.

 

I think us finishing fourth in the West is a good prediction and I don't have any bold caveats to tack onto that.

[BIG ERN]

O-line returns a lot, but not a ton of talent there yet. Remember, Wisconsin has dominated the B10 West because the o-line is 5/11 players on offense. All the ones with potential are underclassmen...Jurgens, Piper, Benhart, Corcoran, Nouili etc. 

[Undone]

13 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

O-line returns a lot, but not a ton of talent there yet. Remember, Wisconsin has dominated the B10 West because the o-line is 5/11 players on offense. All the ones with potential are underclassmen...Jurgens, Piper, Benhart, Corcoran, Nouili etc. 

 

Yeah, agreed. That's pretty much "end thread" for me.

[84HuskerLaw]

As time passes all the coaching and repetitions and S&C work has to add up.   Dont sell us short quite yet people.  Returning experience is probably the single best indicator of success at college level ball.  We are still young but not nearly as green.  We only won 5 last year but were in several others and just a handful of plays away from about 8 wins.  Fill some gaping holes in kicks and coverages and a dozen better snaps a game by LBs and DBs and we are pretty salty.  On offense there were any number of critical series where one good block begets a key first down and a field goal instead of a turnover on downs changes relative field position a bunch.  This will be Frost’s best team easily and NU’s best in the past 6 years.   I am very very confident in that forecast.  

[Undone]

1 minute ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

As time passes all the coaching and repetitions and S&C work has to add up.

 

I believe it's fair to cast some doubts about whether or not some of the position coaching was quality enough to actually be something that "has to add up." Hence the two firings in the offseason.

 

There's so much work to be done from a development and cohesion standpoint on this team that it's kind of hard to know where to even begin. But, there's a lot of talent.

 

At some point about four-ish years ago, the Big 10 became a really dominant conference across the board. This element makes it hard to be successful unless basically everything is firing on all cylinders.

 

It'll get there, but I see the "big jump" in year four.

[Husker in WI]

17 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

O-line returns a lot, but not a ton of talent there yet. Remember, Wisconsin has dominated the B10 West because the o-line is 5/11 players on offense. All the ones with potential are underclassmen...Jurgens, Piper, Benhart, Corcoran, Nouili etc. 

 

True, but IMO Jaimes, Farniok, Wilson, etc are talented enough for use to do better than 5-7. We don't need to match Wisconsin's o-line this year to compete with them, I think Frost has shown he can outscheme Leonhard to a point. We put up 518 yards (mostly passing) in 2018, and 493 (mostly rushing) last year. We just need the defense to be a bit better, and our o-line to be good enough to turn more of the yards into points. To consistently win the West we want our o-line to be at that level, but I don't think we can't win it until they are.

 

Just now, Undone said:

It'll get there, but I see the "big jump" in year four.

 

We've gotten to the point where we're saying next year before this one starts! Not disagreeing, just funny. Year 1 we were always looking to year 2, but then when that went south it was year 3 - and we haven't even touched that one yet but it's 4 now.

[Undone]

3 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

We've gotten to the point where we're saying next year before this one starts! Not disagreeing, just funny. Year 1 we were always looking to year 2, but then when that went south it was year 3 - and we haven't even touched that one yet but it's 4 now.

 

Agreed, it does finally get kind of silly.

 

I base the comment though on the fact that your offensive line is the heart & soul of the team and we've got some really good young guys there - but they probably won't be fully ready until 2021.

[bugeater17]

The D line is the biggest question mark for me. We have some talent coming in but not much experience outside of Stille. If the D line gets pushed around come Big 10 play it could make for a long season on the defensive side. 

[BIG ERN]

5 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

True, but IMO Jaimes, Farniok, Wilson, etc are talented enough for use to do better than 5-7. We don't need to match Wisconsin's o-line this year to compete with them, I think Frost has shown he can outscheme Leonhard to a point. We put up 518 yards (mostly passing) in 2018, and 493 (mostly rushing) last year. We just need the defense to be a bit better, and our o-line to be good enough to turn more of the yards into points. To consistently win the West we want our o-line to be at that level, but I don't think we can't win it until they are.

 

 

We've gotten to the point where we're saying next year before this one starts! Not disagreeing, just funny. Year 1 we were always looking to year 2, but then when that went south it was year 3 - and we haven't even touched that one yet but it's 4 now.

I agree that our oline doesn't need to be Wisconsin's because 9/10x it won't be. The knock on Frost was his play calling was inconsistent and bad in the red zone last year. I think Lubick is such a good upgrade. Frost needs a little more structure right now and Lubick improves us in all areas there from film, recruiting, and mathmatical tendencies of defenses. I have no worries going fwd, but it does suck when no one on the o-line looks good. All in all the defense needs to get better. Chin worries me. 

[84HuskerLaw]

I agree the Big ten is better by a good margin than a decade ago - Nebraska addition started this process ino.  But i think its more balanced than most ackowledge.  But OSU is as good as usual then Michigan and Wiscy slipped back. PSU held their own and maybe in sole second.  Nebraska is not far behind those four.   Any given Sat any of them are at risk to lose to most any other Big ten team. Iowa tends to win vs the bottom half but rarely wins vs top 4. The door is open for NU to climb to the top 5 - above MN, IA, IN, NW, RU, MSU, MA, PU.  I think we finish in 5th overall and 2nd in the west race. MN will fall big time but knock off one of the top 4.  

[tmfr15]

The Big 10, insofar as national prominence, is a one team league IMHO with that being Ohio State.

 

Penn State quite a bit behind the Bucks with Michigan third and fill in the rest however you like there in the east.

 

Nebraska should be the second best team in the west. Iowa's wins over Nebraska should have been dominant but were instead nail-biters. A solid season with an upset over Wisky might be enough to propel the Big Red to Indy and then NU would have to be fortunate to play an uninterested or uninspired Buckeye team in order to have a shot.

 

Last year told us the story really. Minnesota had a charmed year and knocked off Penn State, but they couldn't beat Iowa and then got choked out by a Badger team that was promptly choked out by a much better Buckeye crew.

[Husker in WI]

6 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Agreed, it does finally get kind of silly.

 

I base the comment though on the fact that your offensive line is the heart & soul of the team and we've got some really good young guys there - but they probably won't be fully ready until 2021.

 

I'm not disagreeing honestly, but it is sad.

 

20 minutes ago, bugeater17 said:

The D line is the biggest question mark for me. We have some talent coming in but not much experience outside of Stille. If the D line gets pushed around come Big 10 play it could make for a long season on the defensive side. 

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic at the DE spots. Stille didn't get the sacks Khalil did, but there's no drop off from the Davises to Stille. Deontre Thomas is in the same tier. Then throw in the young guys with upside and now a little experience and a lot of S&C (Robinson, Casey Rogers, Wildeman, Keem Green) and  I think we're at worst the same as last year, with a lot more potential.

 

NT is a different story. I'm of the opinion that Darrion was very underrated last year, and there's not a clear stud to replace him. Damion always looks good out there, but there's a reason he's never out there for the whole game. Can he get himself to a point where he can play most of the game? And who's behind him? If it's Robinson great, but he still seems more like an End - I know he played nose against Wisconsin. Jordan Riley? Hutmacher? It's quite possible Damion steps up and has a phenomenal year, and is spelled effectively by any of those other 3. But it's also possible he's still a part time player, and none of the other 3 are ready to be the war daddy in the middle.

[84HuskerLaw]

Big Ten does fairly well in non con games and bowls - usually being matched up vs higher ranked teams it seems.  This is due in part to the extra conference game means more conference losses in toto and lower rankings at year end times. 

I think the conference slate is the toughest schedule overall of all conferences.   PSU is legit top 10 program and Wiscy and Mich are both top 12 or so level. That is 25% of the top 12.  IA MSU and MU are top 35 as programs.  If we in fact play upto our potential this fall we are in that range as well.  That is 7 of 35 or 20%.   I put Purdue and IN NW in the top 60 leaving only Rutgers Maryland and Illinois trailing in the top 90 or so - again every team is not to be overlooked on any given day.  The bottoms of the other major leagues tend to be weaker generally.  

But even the worst P5 teams are still better than 15 years ago by comparison.  Parity via scholarships etc have their effects.