Jump to content


The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


Pick your Candidate  

38 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I mean, that is not true.

 

@BigRedBuster

@JJ Husker

They have left the R's.

 

I am guessing so have many others.  

 

I single handily got a few posters to change their strong views on being against abortion.  Change happens. 

Yeah, I think Trump (among many other crazies and extremists) have driven many away from the R party. Honestly it is how I believe Biden was able to defeat him. I don’t think Joe has been terrible or really even bad but he was not my idea of anything approaching a good candidate in 20 when I voted for him. And I’ll do it again because the Rs have gone bats#!t.

  • Plus1 1
  • TBH 3
Link to comment

50 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I mean, that is not true.

 

@BigRedBuster

@JJ Husker

They have left the R's.

 

I am guessing so have many others.  

 

I single handily got a few posters to change their strong views on being against abortion.  Change happens. 

Shhhhhhh…the Dr. has that certain post he wants to put out every few days and you are ruining his narrative.   Give the guy a break:).  

  • Thanks 1
  • Fire 1
Link to comment

Why Biden will win.  13 predictors that have been true since 1860.  Article quoted in part below

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/conventional-wisdom-said-trump-couldnt-win-in-2016-this-historians-keys-said-he-would-what-are-those-keys-telling-us-today-4562126e

 

Quote

Biden holds an edge this November based on American University professor Allan Lichtman’s analysis of 13 historical predictors

 

Quote

 

Recent polling news has been very promising for Donald Trump. But with nine months still to go in the presidential race, American University professor Allan Lichtman says Joe Biden holds an edge according to the historical “keys” to victory.

For now, anyway.

Five of the 13 historical predictors of victory favor Biden, while three favor Trump, and the rest are still up for grabs, Lichtman told MarketWatch in an interview.

That leaves the Democrats praying that foreign policy and the economy will go the president’s way in the months ahead — and that there isn’t a strong third-party campaign.

Lichtman, now 77, coined the “Keys to the White House” phrase in a popular book first published in the early 1980s. These “keys” consist of 13 indicators that supposedly determine the outcomes of presidential elections. Lichtman argues they have held good since at least 1860.

At one notable moment in recent history, the “keys” predicted Donald Trump’s victory in November 2016 — against all the conventional wisdom and most polling.

This time around, Lichtman says, President Biden is an incumbent running for re-election (Key No. 3), has not faced a serious challenge for his party’s nomination (Key No. 2) and has made major policy changes (Key No. 7). 

(The keys make no judgment about whether the policy changes undertaken are for the better.)

And the long-term economic trend is running Biden’s way: “Real” — or after-inflation — per capita economic growth over the past four years has equaled or exceeded the average growth rate during the previous two presidential terms (Key No. 6).

It has, too. I ran the numbers. Based on International Monetary Fund data, the U.S. economy is on track to post average real growth of 2.5% per person during the 2021–25 presidential term. The average from 2012 to 2020? Just under 1%.

No contest. (And, once again, for this exercise it doesn’t matter why.)

More contentious is Key No. 13: “The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.” Clearly, to some (even many), Trump is just that. Lichtman, to be fair, is no fan of Trump and is a Democrat. But he argues that this 13th key refers only to broadly bipartisan or national heroes à la, say, Eisenhower.

On the other hand, Lichtman notes, two or three of these indicators clearly favor Trump. After the 2022 midterm elections, the Democrats hold fewer seats in Congress than they did after the previous midterms, in 2018 (Key No. 1). And Biden, per Lichtman, is neither charismatic nor a national hero (No. 12). 

It would be hard to point to any “major foreign policy or military success” under this administration (No. 11).

Foreign and military success or failure appears twice on Lichtman’s list of keys: The incumbent party scores a point for a big success, and it can also lose a point for the absence of one.

 

 

  • Oh Yeah! 1
Link to comment

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

The alleged dead beat dad who generated the tweet would have understood those are people supporting Trump and he wasn’t on it.   Unless he’s just trying to gaslight his followers.   Either way makes him a clown again. 

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment
10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I wish it were someone else too.  But, if it's between him and Trump, the decision is clear.

Yes!

 

He is clearly loaded up on meds, I get it, my Dad is his age and his body is quitting on him and at times his mind is not 100%.  My dad probably takes 15 different pills per day. 

 

And he is retired and gets to nap all day and read books.  

 

I can't imagine what the schedule is like for the President of the US.  

 

Sadly, we have to wait 4.5 more years until there are 2 new people.

  • Plus1 2
  • TBH 2
Link to comment
  • TGHusker changed the title to The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...