808Husker in KCMO Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 all votes are electronic. Quote Link to comment
Nexus Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Why is Suh third if he has the most points? We seem to be getting deluged with comments from Cornhusker fans telling us that our projection is bunk because our math is off. After all, they say, Ndamukong Suh has the most points - how can he be in third place?! So, rather than simply saying, "People, read the site!" we'll address it directly. First, we see this every year. And every year, somebody cries foul. And every year, we've been right. (Last year was especially tough, since I was one of the few projecting a loss by Tim Tebow - even though he would have the most #1 votes.) Second, if we simply counted up the number of ballots we track down - and then extrapolated a total - that would be a) too easy, and B) wrong. In fact, that's exactly what we did in our very first year. We got lucky, and correctly projected Carson Palmer as the winner, but we had Larry Johnson at #5 - not #3, as he actually ended up. After that first year, we realized that the projection actually has to be six separate regional projections that are then added up. Why? Because you get lots and lots of public declarations from the regions that have candidates - and relatively few from the regions that don't, even though they all still vote. This year, for example, so far we've tracked down 44 of the 145 actual ballots in the Southwest region - but only 13 of the 145 in the Northeast region. But since we know that both regions will be roughly equally represented in the final total, we have to adjust the math - so that the Southwest region doesn't appear to be three times the size of the Northeast. A few of the other questions: * "Do these projections assume that the people who have not responded are going to be similar to those that have?" Yes. That's a critical assumption. And so far, it's borne out to be true. We hear from very few former winners - so I've always worried about projecting that group of voters, but they're relatively few compared to the media voters. * "What projection will you give voters who voted before Saturdays games?" About 10% of voters voted prior to the final Saturday games. I wish I could account for those voters, but the date of their ballot isn't something we know. Just have to assume that those votes will be equally represented in the known and unknown ballots like all the others. (Of course, if those people all voted Tebow/McCoy, and now they're too embarrassed to publicly declare, well, that could impact that critical assumption above - that known ballots accurately reflect unknown ballots.) * "Dude! You're WRONG! Everybody knows MY GUY is the best player in the country! Moron!" I do love those comments. This is just a little reminder that I don't award the H------ Trophy, nor do I have a vote. I'm just a math and politics nerd in Portland, Oregon that has an obsession with college football. (Pro football nerds, check this out.) Rest assured, I think your player is a great guy and deserves the Trophy. (Seriously, spending all this time on it, you can't help but gain a healthy respect for all the leading candidates.) http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/2009/12/why-...ost-points.html Quote Link to comment
JTrain Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Next projection will be after midnight tonight. If Suh can pull it within 2% of the leader, there may still be hope. Quote Link to comment
Nexus Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Jason White, the '03 winner from OU said on JHale's radio show he voted 4 Mark Ingram 2 win this year's Heisman. But he expects Suh 2 get it http://twitter.com/bbjsports/status/6481911248 Quote Link to comment
huKSer Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Something that also might mess up their methodology is having a non-traditional candidate. Its not another QB or RB from the midwest, its the only DT from the whole country. Quote Link to comment
Husker Richard Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 nexus, i love your signature. Quote Link to comment
Nexus Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 nexus, i love your signature. Quote Link to comment
Husker Richard Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 nexus, i love your signature. i could watch it all day. Quote Link to comment
CENTEXHUSKER Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 nexus, i love your signature. +1 Latest..... Last updated: 12/8/2009, 11:02 p.m. Pacific. 208 ballots, 578 votes. name.......first..second..third..ballots..points..Projected Proj% M Ingram 40......59........33......132......271.....1171.....42.2% T Gerhart 46......46........32......124......262.....1136.....40.9% N Suh..... 67...... 24.......32......123.......281....1051......37.8% C McCoy 29........38.......37......104.......200......879......31.6% Quote Link to comment
HuskerfaninOkieland Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Does anybody know how many points are awarded per vote? I.E. how many points does one get for a 1st place vote, a 2nd place vote and 3rd place vote? Quote Link to comment
Back In Black Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 3 for first 2 for second and 1 for third Quote Link to comment
irafreak Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 I think about 10% of the votes were turned in prior to Saturday. A lot of those had McCoy 1st. I wonder if they would have had more patient and waited until all the games had been played, would that have helped Suh come closer to 1st? Probably, but we'll never know. Ballots shouldn't be allowed until Sunday, and they should have until Wednesday instead of Monday. It's such BS to submit votes before all the candidates have played the games....especially the one you're voting 1st place. McCoy had an awful game on the biggest stage to this point. Why do they even allow them to vote early? I mean these 10% should have their votes permanently revoked. They've proven they don't put enough research into it. It's not as though McCoy was the clearcut leader all season with massive stats and looked invincible. Hell even their 2nd and 3rd place votes couldn't have been hands down above the 4th and 5th prospects.... Quote Link to comment
captain obvious Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 WHY DO PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THIS sh#t Quote Link to comment
SealBeachHusker Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 WHY DO PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THIS sh#t That one of our own would receive such national recognition? I think beyond the fact that Suh deserves it, the PR for the University, team and recruiting are pretty significant. Quote Link to comment
RockyMountainOySker Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 WHY DO PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THIS sh#t That one of our own would receive such national recognition? I think beyond the fact that Suh deserves it, the PR for the University, team and recruiting are pretty significant. Good answer captain obvious Quote Link to comment
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