HuskerExpat Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 4.5 points is way too much. 1.5 or 2 I can see, but 4.5 (or more, I'm seeing some places at 5) is insane. We lost a game, and didn't blow them out last year at home. We also lost 4 of our 5 best players. Not insane. And Miami lost .....? I guarantee Miami fans know we lost Abdullah, Gregory, and (maybe) Bell. I doubt many Husker fans know the names of the players Miami lost. Therefore, the same can probably be said for people betting on the game. Dunno why I'm posting this a 2nd time. I've already discussed it earlier in the topic. Edit: can't get mobile to function right Miami lost several NFL players and all conference players. Their OL is almost a complete rebuild. But now I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that the line is accurate because the betting public knows about the big names we lost but doesn't understand the nature of Miami's attrition; or are you saying the line is right because that is a 4.5 or 5 points fairly represents the difference between the two teams. Those are two very different statements... Quote Link to comment
NUinID Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 It is really hard to say how good Miami is or will be, Kaaya is very good and they have good athletes, but they have played absolutely no one this year. FAU actually gave them a game for about 3 quarters and I have no idea what a Bethune-Cookman is. They will have the athletes, but don't seem to have quite the lineman like they have had in the past. I think NU is a little more battle tested than Miami. Doesn't mean they will win, just means they have been in more of a fight. Quote Link to comment
QMany Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Randy and Abdullah were much (much much) bigger losses than Flowers and Johnson. Duke Johnson was Miami's lifeline, much like Ameer was to us, and they had eerily similar statistics. Their replacements seem similar on paper, too. We are thin at DE, so Randy's departure hurts. However, Flowers wasn't the #9 overall pick for no reason. Making statements like that, I presume you have knowledge about the talent of his replacements. This even leaves out the other first-rounder, Dorsett. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 We are 1-1. So 4.5 dogs seems reasonable. Although I do think we'll win. I wonder if we learned anything about containing athletic QBs from our experience chasing Taysom Hill around the field. Quote Link to comment
QMany Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 We are 1-1. So 4.5 dogs seems reasonable. If that Hail Mary falls incomplete, does the line change that much? Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 4.5 points is way too much. 1.5 or 2 I can see, but 4.5 (or more, I'm seeing some places at 5) is insane. We lost a game, and didn't blow them out last year at home. We also lost 4 of our 5 best players. Not insane. And Miami lost .....? I guarantee Miami fans know we lost Abdullah, Gregory, and (maybe) Bell. I doubt many Husker fans know the names of the players Miami lost. Therefore, the same can probably be said for people betting on the game. Dunno why I'm posting this a 2nd time. I've already discussed it earlier in the topic. Edit: can't get mobile to function right Miami lost several NFL players and all conference players. Their OL is almost a complete rebuild. But now I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that the line is accurate because the betting public knows about the big names we lost but doesn't understand the nature of Miami's attrition; or are you saying the line is right because that is a 4.5 or 5 points fairly represents the difference between the two teams. Those are two very different statements... Neither? I'm saying the line isn't "insane," as one post in this topic says, just because people tend to think Miami is slightly better. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 We are 1-1. So 4.5 dogs seems reasonable. If that Hail Mary falls incomplete, does the line change that much? Yeah, I'll bet it would change by a point or two. Not that we'd be any better team. But more people would be willing to bet on us. And that's what the pointspread is for. To even out the bets between the two teams. 2 Quote Link to comment
WhatDoIKnow Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 It's the opening line a week before the game. I wouldn't put too much thought into it unless you really want to bet on Nebraska. I'm guessing by game-time it will be a PK or -1 either way. Quote Link to comment
QMany Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 We are 1-1. So 4.5 dogs seems reasonable. If that Hail Mary falls incomplete, does the line change that much? Yeah, I'll bet it would change by a point or two. Not that we'd be any better team. But more people would be willing to bet on us. And that's what the pointspread is for. To even out the bets between the two teams. And that is how the Strip was built. Quote Link to comment
Kiyoat Husker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 I was in Vegas during the BYU game, and put some money on the Huskers covering. I thought it was strange that the line right before the game had shrunk to just 4 points. I thought, what luck! Ended up losing it anyway. Must have been a lot of people betting on BYU at the last minute, or something. (i don't ever gamble like that, but was in Vegas, so figured what the heck) Quote Link to comment
HuskerExpat Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 4.5 points is way too much. 1.5 or 2 I can see, but 4.5 (or more, I'm seeing some places at 5) is insane. We lost a game, and didn't blow them out last year at home. We also lost 4 of our 5 best players. Not insane. And Miami lost .....? I guarantee Miami fans know we lost Abdullah, Gregory, and (maybe) Bell. I doubt many Husker fans know the names of the players Miami lost. Therefore, the same can probably be said for people betting on the game. Dunno why I'm posting this a 2nd time. I've already discussed it earlier in the topic. Edit: can't get mobile to function right Miami lost several NFL players and all conference players. Their OL is almost a complete rebuild. But now I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that the line is accurate because the betting public knows about the big names we lost but doesn't understand the nature of Miami's attrition; or are you saying the line is right because that is a 4.5 or 5 points fairly represents the difference between the two teams. Those are two very different statements... Neither? I'm saying the line isn't "insane," as one post in this topic says, just because people tend to think Miami is slightly better. Perhaps we have a different definition of insane. I'd say a line is insane if it is more than 2 or 3 points off. Why do I say that, because you if you can identify lines that are off by 3 points with any consistency, you'll end up picking a winner about 60% of the time and can make millions of dollars in the process. So I'm saying the line should be Miami -1 or -1.5, which makes a -4.5 line insane. 1 Quote Link to comment
HuskerExpat Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 And, frankly, the betting markets seem to agree with my assessment, since the line is now down to -3 or -3.5 and looks to be heading lower. Quote Link to comment
The Dude Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Randy and Abdullah were much (much much) bigger losses than Flowers and Johnson. Duke Johnson was Miami's lifeline, much like Ameer was to us, and they had eerily similar statistics. Their replacements seem similar on paper, too. We are thin at DE, so Randy's departure hurts. However, Flowers wasn't the #9 overall pick for no reason. Making statements like that, I presume you have knowledge about the talent of his replacements. This even leaves out the other first-rounder, Dorsett. Gregory is much better than Flowers. It was true last September, it was true last night on Sunday Night Football. The matchup obviously favored us heavily. His replacement doesn't have to be anywhere as good as him for the matchup to equal out, or even favor Miami. Ameer - 35 carries, 225 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec, 1 TD Duke - 18 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD, 5 rec, 84 yds Dorsett - 2 rec, 48 yds Bell - 4 rec, 70 yds, 1 TD Between those 4 we lost 298 yards and 4 TDs of production. Miami lost 225 yards and 1 TD. You could make an argument that Abdullah was a bigger loss than Johnson and Dorsett combined for this matchup. Quote Link to comment
QMany Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Oh, we're looking at one game. 3 Quote Link to comment
Notsince1985 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 You want to make money? Put everything you own, mortgage, kids' college fund, etc. on NU. Trust me. Al Golden does not win big games. Never has, never will. He goes into a shell and coaches scared. His record against teams with winning records (yes, I know NU is 1-1) is atrocious. His record at Temple against teams with winning records was pathetic. Look at the 2nd half of the FSU game last year as evidence. Miami went up 16-0 and 23-7, and then he got scared and coached not to lose. He does that all the time in big games. ps PLEASE BEAT US AND PUT US OUT OF OUR MISERY Quote Link to comment
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