Athlon Sports: Big Ten Predictions 2016

[Saunders]

 

 

 

I wonder what the advanced statistics said about Michigan vs Appalachian State, Boise vs Oklahoma, and so on.

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/4/17/2109844/appalachian-state-michigan-2007

Something something if Georgia would have played Auburn early in the season they would have handled them with ease?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_metrics

 

 

 

For instance, if Northwestern had played Stanford again at the end of the year, Stanford wins that game going away..

SMH...

[dvdcrr]

Michigan is winning the Big 14.

[Swiv3D]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sometimes it's timing, sometimes it's just random factors. For instance, if Northwestern had played Stanford again at the end of the year, Stanford wins that game going away. You aren't arguing opinions, you're arguing against factual data.

 

I wonder what the advanced statistics said about Michigan vs Appalachian State, Boise vs Oklahoma, and so on.

I think that's his point about random factors (i.e. luck). The problem with looking at the results of one game is the sample size. Does anyone really think Appalachian St would have beaten Michigan 9 times out of 10 games? Or was the one time they played the unlikely and outlier result?

 

Of course it is only the on field results that count, but the point is that because of luck or other random factors and sample size, the on field results don't always tell the whole story of how good or bad a team is. It is really no different than what many people say anecdotally about Nebraska last year (e.g. that Nebraska was better than the 6-7 record). If one can believe that the relatively poor on field results for Nebraska were not representative of the quality of the team why is it so hard to accept, in theory, that a team that went 12-2 might not have been as good as their record?

It doesn't matter. App St won the game. They weren't going to play Michigan 10 times.

 

Luck doesn't exist.

 

 

Something something if Georgia would have played Auburn early in the season they would have handled them with ease?

I get it, man. We're all prideful here and don't like much to be wrong, but c'mon

[Hooked on Huskers]

Iowa will not win the division. Iowa was incredibly lucky last year and then their luck ran out and they were exposed in post-season play. Iowa is going to lose four conference games (some combination of Michigan, Penn St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Northwestern).

 

Exactly, down to earth. Myself, Birds was a flash in the pan. Kinda like Kansas in 2007.

[Savage Husker]

 

 

Iowa will not win the division. Iowa was incredibly lucky last year and then their luck ran out and they were exposed in post-season play. Iowa is going to lose four conference games (some combination of Michigan, Penn St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Northwestern).

Exactly, down to earth. Myself, Birds was a flash in the pan. Kinda like Kansas in 2007.

Iowa has a lot of returning starters on both sides of the ball, which makes me believe they'll be strong contender for the division, but yet I also believe that they'll flop and not live up to expectations. So, with that said, they're a team I would never drop a dime on betting for or against them.

[Landlord]

The thing about Iowa to me is that their best year ever they could only manage to beat us by 8 points while allowing us to outgain them in the game 433yds to 250yds...they only got 10 first downs the entire game.

 

We gift wrapped that game last year for them.

 

 

Think about that...their best team ever barely beat our 1st or 2nd worst since 1961.

 

 

 

They've had better seasons but God forbid we don't try to find every selective lens through which to look in order to make sure that we know that Iowa is still so much worse than our awesome football program.

[Scratchtown]

 

 

 

 

The thing about Iowa to me is that their best year ever they could only manage to beat us by 8 points while allowing us to outgain them in the game 433yds to 250yds...they only got 10 first downs the entire game.

 

We gift wrapped that game last year for them.

 

 

Think about that...their best team ever barely beat our 1st or 2nd worst since 1961.

 

 

They've had better seasons but God forbid we don't try to find every selective lens through which to look in order to make sure that we know that Iowa is still so much worse than our awesome football program.

 

I think they had a fundamentally sound team last year. They didn't commit lots of mistakes and they took advantage of other teams. But I'm not going to blow smoke and say that in the game last year we didn't gift wrap 12-0 for them.

Which is the difference between a horrible team and a good team.

 

Bad teams find ways to lose. That was NU in a nutshell in 2015

[California Husker]

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

 

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

 

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

 

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

 

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

 

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

 

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

 

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

 

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

 

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

 

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

 

Can you explain what play you are talking about?

 

Brandon Reilly ran out of bounds to avoid being pressed by the CB and then came back in bounds to catch the TD pass. Yes, I know the officials ruled that we was "forced out", but even if he was "forced out" Reilly is supposed to try and get back in bounds ASAP. Reilly ran down the sideline out of bounds, and then came back in to catch it.

 

I understand the officials ruled one thing, but even being a Husker fan, that was a lucky call for NU.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A0NOceUx7I

 

The video clearly shows BR trying to lean into the field and away from the sideline but the DB kept leaning into BR. BR understood the rule apparently and broke on the ball, never gave up on the play and caught the ball. Thats just smart football. The good luck for Nebraska happened on the play before this one where the DB dropped the sure interception.

 

It has always been my contention that this was a "legal" play by Reilly, but this video clearly shows that he tried to maintain a position in bounds but was forced out by the defender AND that as soon as his momentum allowed, he returned in bounds. Great video....thanks.