Athlon: 6 Teams Ready to Turn Close Losses into Big Wins in 2016

[Saunders]

Stats and eyeballs frequently agree. According to last year’s Massey Composite Ratings — a cumulative set of almost every college football computer ranking known to man — Alabama finished first, Clemson second and Ohio State third. To anybody who actually watched college football games in 2015, this sounds about right, just as it seemed right that some combination of Charlotte, UCF, Eastern Michigan, North Texas, ULM, Hawaii and Kansas would rank at the bottom.

Outside of the extremes, however, the math and the eyes may begin to see things differently, especially when you boil things down to a single formula (or set of formulas).

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/6-teams-ready-turn-close-losses-big-wins-2016?utm_content=buffer1651b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Saunders]

Keep this in mind when you’re taking stock of the Big Ten West landscape. Both Nebraska and Iowa ranked in the 40s in S&P+ last season — yes, the 40s; Iowa didn’t beat a team that ranked higher than 31st, got destroyed by No. 10 Stanford, and eked by No. 60 Indiana and No. 61 Illinois, among others — and now Nebraska returns its leading passer, rusher, receiver and 12 of last year’s top 16 tacklers. The Huskers have issues but aren’t nearly as far from the top of the West as you might think.

 

Key paragraph right there.

[Redux]

If this staff is truly destined to succeed here we will see the biggest pieces begin coming together this year. I think they realize how important wins are to this fan base and will take the necessary steps towards securing those close games with a W.

[Mavric]

Add all of this up, and you’ve got a Nebraska turnover margin of minus-12 when national averages would have suggested something closer to even.

 

I do agree that the national average for turnover margin should be pretty much even.

[Saunders]

If this staff is truly destined to succeed here we will see the biggest pieces begin coming together this year. I think they realize how important wins are to this fan base and will take the necessary steps towards securing those close games with a W.

The more I think about expectations for this season, the less it is about a specific number. My minimum expectations for this year are to still be in the hunt for the division title come the last 2 weeks of the season. They do that, and they'll be on the right track.

[gbr93]

 

Add all of this up, and youve got a Nebraska turnover margin of minus-12 when national averages would have suggested something closer to even.

I do agree that the national average for turnover margin should be pretty much even.

In fact, it should be exactly even. How mind blowing?

[Redux]

 

If this staff is truly destined to succeed here we will see the biggest pieces begin coming together this year. I think they realize how important wins are to this fan base and will take the necessary steps towards securing those close games with a W.

 

The more I think about expectations for this season, the less it is about a specific number. My minimum expectations for this year are to still be in the hunt for the division title come the last 2 weeks of the season. They do that, and they'll be on the right track.

Exactly why I'm having such a hard time throwing out my W/L prediction. If we have a bowl bid secured by week 8 and are competing hard every/in every game, we are on the right track.

 

I don't expect to beat Ohio State. And out of Oregon, @NW, @Wiscy and @ Iowa, I expect we drop at least one or two. At 10-2 or 9-3 though we are still in the hunt.

[junior4949]

My best guess is we are a 3 loss team where we end up tied in the West with Iowa where we lose the tiebreaker. I'm just glad we don't have Wisconsin's schedule.

[RedDenver]

 

Add all of this up, and you’ve got a Nebraska turnover margin of minus-12 when national averages would have suggested something closer to even.

 

I do agree that the national average for turnover margin should be pretty much even.

 

It's not like it's a zero sum game or anything...

[Cornhole]

I'm guessing FCS games skew the stats.

[gbr93]

I'm guessing FCS games skew the stats.

bingo

[RedDenver]

I'm guessing FCS games skew the stats.

Did you look to see if the FCS stats are included? And I'm not sure how they skew the stats any more than a bad D1A team.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Is it possible that "national average" means something different in this case and is just poor writing by the author?