teachercd Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 minute ago, PaulCrewe said: Well Riley didn’t have an upset victory last year so here’s one for few still grasping straws No kidding! If he pulls off this unthinkable upset there were will a few "told you so" posters that come out of the woodwork Just think...Purdue's new coach has them as a TD favorite at home vs NU...I guess they took the correct antibiotics to cure them of their toxins Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 minute ago, teachercd said: Just think...Purdue's new coach has them as a TD favorite at home vs NU...I guess they took the correct antibiotics to cure them of their toxins I'd like to at least see where the line closes before I mail him his trophy. Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Just now, brophog said: I'd like to at least see where the line closes before I mail him his trophy. I don't think it will move all that much. This is not going to be a heavy action type of game, It is two crappy teams. Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Dan_F_31 said: Pretty sure this line means Vegas has an opinion on the game. Purdue -6.5 and -115. Neb +6.5 and +105. Purdue just lost to Rutgers and Neb has name recognition with average bettor. Vegas is begging for money on Neb. The projected line was in that 6-7 range before they lost to Rutgers. The loss to Rutgers won't have any impact on the smart money. Quote Link to comment
Dan_F_31 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Just now, teachercd said: I don't think it will move all that much. This is not going to be a heavy action type of game, It is two crappy teams. Just now, teachercd said: I don't think it will move all that much. This is not going to be a heavy action type of game, It is two crappy teams. I don't think it will move much either. Vegas wants money in Neb Quote Link to comment
Dan_F_31 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, brophog said: The projected line was in that 6-7 range before they lost to Rutgers. The loss to Rutgers won't have any impact on the smart money. I said average money. Not the sharp money. Average bettor will be on Neb. Quote Link to comment
Redux Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 4 hours ago, unlfan said: Pathetic Mike is doing long term damage to our football program. Such behavior needs to be pointed out until action is taken to rid the program of the cancer. He is gone after the season, get the hell over it. You're doing more damage to the psyche of this board than he is to the program. 2 hours ago, jessica0 said: Purdue opens -6. Just like I said they would. Chocolate Chip or Raisin? Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Geez Redux! Gosh! Ha 1 Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Dan_F_31 said: I said average money. Not the sharp money. Average bettor will be on Neb. The smart money is what moves lines. Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, brophog said: The smart money is what moves lines. Sharps have been known to bet both ways. Either bet a little too move the line before they load up or bet heavy then buy some back if the line moves a lot. Wouldn't surprise me if the sharps know a lot of squares will bet Nebraska getting that many points do they're putting a little money down to try to get the line down to 4 or even 3 then load up on Purdue late. Vegas hasn't been wrong on Nebraska a whole lot this year. Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 (edited) Like was talked about in the pre-Rutgers analysis, Nebraska and Purdue are roughly equivalent. The Rutgers game may have pushed some to realize that but it doesn't have an impact on that analysis. Purdue is still who they were. Edited October 23, 2017 by brophog Quote Link to comment
Isle of View Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 We're far enough into the season that ATS (Against The Spread) becomes a stat worth looking at. A lot of smart bettors wouldn't put money on Nebraska this week because of ATS. The books may also have adjusted the points up slightly due to the lopsided ATS for the two teams. Huskers are 2-5 ATS. Purdue is 5-2. Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Isle of View said: We're far enough into the season that ATS (Against The Spread) becomes a stat worth looking at. A lot of smart bettors wouldn't put money on Nebraska this week because of ATS. The books may also have adjusted the points up slightly due to the lopsided ATS for the two teams. Huskers are 2-5 ATS. Purdue is 5-2. I would never use such a thing as a consideration. You might as well use trends (like KU-TCU). Why? They're contextual. They say something occurred, they don't tell me why it occurred. Quote Link to comment
Isle of View Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, brophog said: I would never use such a thing as a consideration. You might as well use trends (like KU-TCU). Why? They're contextual. They say something occurred, they don't tell me why it occurred. It's a sign that the sportsbooks are consistently over or under estimating a given team. When you have a big difference between the two teams ATS, it's worth considering. Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Isle of View said: It's a sign that the sportsbooks are consistently over or under estimating a given team. When you have a big difference between the two teams ATS, it's worth considering. It's statistical noise. They list these numbers for the same reason the roulette wheel lists what numbers previously hit. Quote Link to comment
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