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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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10 minutes ago, commando said:

holy bats#!t crazy...and she and others like her who WANT a trump dictatorship will vote for don the con no matter what

 

Trump just loves those low educated voters. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

He doesn't need many, if any, new voters to win. He needs an extremely small number, just a few thousand, of voters spread across three states to change their minds. 

 

In order to win, Biden probably needs to win the popular vote by 5-5.5%, margins that probably aren't possible. His path is difficult. 

We will see!

But I have a feeling come election time there will be a lot "Wow, that dork was right for once, Joe did win with ease" posts

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6 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Oh I get that.  I had the same problem in 2016 so I wrote in my own name.  

 

But....after seeing the results and getting sick to my stomach, I wished I hadn't.

If Trump loses, it'll be interesting to see where the GOP goes. 

 

Will they shed MAGA (and the horde of voters that come with it) or will they simply gravitate towards Great Value Trump - Ron DeSantis  or somebody similar - who attempts to recreate Trumps authoritarian-populism? Part of the problem of a politician doing that is MAGA voters are so knee-deep in conspiracy theories, they may not trust anybody that isn't Trump himself.

 

Hopefully they start nominating normal candidates in the future.

 

2 hours ago, teachercd said:

We will see!

But I have a feeling come election time there will be a lot "Wow, that dork was right for once, Joe did win with ease" posts

It's possible! There's some evidence that a large chunk of voters haven't really calculated in that Trump is the nominee. Once presented with the choice that we're in for a Trump - Biden rematch, voters may heavily gravitate towards Biden.

 

Realistically, there are so few swing states and those states are going to be extremely close that it's difficult for either Trump or Biden to be favored. I'm still leaning 55% towards Trump. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

If Trump loses, it'll be interesting to see where the GOP goes. 

 

Will they shed MAGA (and the horde of voters that come with it) or will they simply gravitate towards Great Value Trump - Ron DeSantis  or somebody similar - who attempts to recreate Trumps authoritarian-populism? Part of the problem of a politician doing that is MAGA voters are so knee-deep in conspiracy theories, they may not trust anybody that isn't Trump himself.

 

Hopefully they start nominating normal candidates in the future.

 

That's exactly where a huge part of their base is.  They don't believe anyone but Trump.

 

I have no clue how they are going to wash the Trump stink off.  It's going to take a complete influx of new politicians that disown Trump....But, the base isn't going to accept them.  

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Just now, BigRedBuster said:

That's exactly where a huge part of their base is.  They don't believe anyone but Trump.

 

I have no clue how they are going to wash the Trump stink off.  It's going to take a complete influx of new politicians that disown Trump....But, the base isn't going to accept them.  

As a Democrat voting in a time period where Republicans have massive institutional advantages in elections, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Since 2016, the electoral environment is so stacked against Democrats that we're deeply fortunate that they won a Trifecta in 2020 and still held onto the Senate in 2022.

 

Republicans are squandering a decade in which they should easily be winning elections based on the fundamentals of the Senate, Electoral College, and gerrymandered house districts. Now, I do deeply wish that the threat that MAGA Republicans was not the other option. I like winning elections and passing good bills, but I don't want the risk of losing an election to be a danger to America.

 

I hope they go back to nominating Mitt Romney types. But we'll see. Republicans might be to far gone to be saved.

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I think Trump gaining voters is far less relevant than Biden bleeding voters. These people probably won’t vote for Trump, but they won’t vote for Biden either. E.g. people who thought Biden would be able to get their loans forgiven, 18 year olds who are sad about Gaza but not about Israel, etc. 

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42 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

That's exactly where a huge part of their base is.  They don't believe anyone but Trump.

 

I have no clue how they are going to wash the Trump stink off.  It's going to take a complete influx of new politicians that disown Trump....But, the base isn't going to accept them.  

Just let them fester in their stink.  The party will be a decade or longer to be fixed.  

Time for Liz, Christie, Hogan, and others including Joe Lieberman and Manchen who are involved in the 3rd party idea to just start a center right to center left party - a centralist party.  Of course it is debatable that anyone who voted most of the time for trump policies would be a centralist (Like Liz) but one cannot argue about her commitment to the constitution.   

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