Another Huskers could win it all article- Rivals version

[irieboy8]

Trio fits profile for 2010 national champion

Olin Buchanan

Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

 

Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Nebraska are high-profile programs. They all fit the national championship profile for 2010, too.

 

Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, most of the teams that have won national championships have shared certain common denominators. All have come from "Big Six" conferences, the past six champions posted at least nine victories the previous season and all but one had a winning record in post-October regular-season games. In addition, 11 of the 12 teams to win the BCS title entered their championship season with a quarterback who was a junior or senior and had at least some starting experience. Finally, 11 of 12 champions returned at least six full-time starters from a defensive unit that ranked in nation's top 20 in scoring defense the previous season.

 

 

 

Quarterback Greg McElroy led Alabama to the national championship last season despite having no starting experience. That has only happened twice in the BCS era.

Of course, there are other factors involved in fielding a championship team. The majority of champions had junior- and senior-dominated offensive lines, but it's difficult to project line starters seven months before the season begins.

 

Avoiding injuries also is vital, but how well a team manages that won't be known until after the 2010 regular season is completed.

 

Fitting the profile obviously won't guarantee a championship: None of the six teams that fit the '09 profile won the national championship. But Texas did play in the BCS national championship game, while Florida and Iowa played in BCS bowls. And Ole Miss, West Virginia and Virginia Tech posted at least nine wins.

 

This past season, Alabama, which went on to win the national championship, fit five of the six characteristics. They did not have a quarterback who previously had started.

 

When Alabama defeated Texas in the BCS national championship game, Greg McElroy joined Tennessee's Tee Martin (1998) as the only title-winning quarterbacks in the BCS era without previous starting experience.

 

So, while profiling shouldn't inspire fans to make reservations for Glendale, Ariz., the site of the 2010 championship game, it at least provides encouragement and a reason to start saving up.

 

But which fans should start saving? That question is answered in the following profile.

 

1. Be in a "Big Six" conference: Unbeaten Utah in 2004 and '08, Hawaii in '07, Boise State in '06 and '09 and TCU in '09 were not given a shot at playing for the national championship. Once might be a fluke, twice could be a coincidence and three times is a trend. But six times in six years? That's exclusion. The BCS system consistently has shown that teams outside the six power conferences won't have a legitimate shot at the national title.

Fitting the profile: The 65 teams in "Big Six" conferences and Notre Dame.

 

2. Post at least nine victories the previous season: Nine of the 12 BCS champions (75 percent) posted at least nine victories in the season preceding their national championship run. Four of the past six champions posted double-digit victory totals the previous year; only Florida (9-3 in '06 and 9-4 in '08) did not.

Still fitting the profile: 22 teams -- Alabama, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, Iowa, LSU, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Texas, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

 

 

 

Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State can make a run at the national championship in 2010.

3. Posted a winning record in post-October regular-season games: Playing well in November often is the key to winning championships. That also provides a clue as to what programs are improving and could be a factor the next season. Every BCS national champion with the exception of LSU in 2002 posted a winning record in post-October regular-season games the previous year. Seven teams were unbeaten in that span the season preceding their championship.

Still fitting the profile: 17 teams -- Alabama, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Because the majority of BCS champions were unbeaten in post-October regular-season games the previous season, take extra note of Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida, Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas and Virginia Tech.

 

4. Return a junior or senior quarterback with starting experience: Again, McElroy and Martin are the only quarterbacks without any previous starting experience to lead BCS championship teams.

Still fitting the profile: 11 teams -- Alabama (McElroy), Cincinnati (Zach Collaros), Clemson (Kyle Parker), Georgia Tech (Josh Nesbitt), Miami (Jacory Harris), Nebraska (Zac Lee), Ohio State (Terrelle Pryor), Oregon (Jeremiah Masoli), Texas Tech (Taylor Potts), Virginia Tech (Tyrod Taylor) and Wisconsin (Scott Tolzien).

 

5. Return at least six starters from a defensive unit that ranked in the top 20 in scoring defense: We'll define returning starters as players who had no fewer than five starts, which represents at least a third of the games. Nine of the past 10 BCS champs ranked at least 20th in scoring defense the previous season. Tennessee is the only champion in the BCS era that returned fewer than six defensive starters.

Still fitting the profile: Three teams -- Nebraska, Ohio State, Virginia Tech.

 

No doubt, fans of the Buckeyes, Hokies and Huskers already are counting the days to what could be an epic season.

 

But Alabama fans surely are, too. They're well-aware a team doesn't have to completely meet the profile to raise the crystal trophy. Oregon, Texas, Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa and several others can glean encouragement from that, too.

[GSG]

That formula makes more sense than what some of these "experts" come up with. Thanks for posting!

[HuskerInLostWages]

Just read that, and it's a fairly sound formula. Let's see how well it works out this next season and see what the 3 teams listed can do.

[huzkerbob]

They have Nebraska in the top three, so yep their formula makes perfect sense to me!

[ESPY]

Now that's what I call insightful journalism. The whole time I was thinking how fun it would be to get paid to do a study like that. This proves the importance of winning at least 9 games a season, especially if the end goal is to win the national title, and that of course is a rhetorical "if" for any NCAA team.

[HuskerTrucker]

It would be neat to see Nebraska play Virginia Tech for the NC...only this time we beat them!

 

It is amazing that we can get so much respect after the offensive numbers that we put up last year, and we are even losing a monster like Suh.

[ESPY]

Good point about Suh. I bet this guy's article didn't take into account DTs who finish 4th in the Heisman race. In spite of that, I believe we have the personnel, the experience & the coaching to land our D in the top 20 again next year.

[irieboy8]

Good point about Suh. I bet this guy's article didn't take into account DTs who finish 4th in the Heisman race. In spite of that, I believe we have the personnel, the experience & the coaching to land our D in the top 20 again next year.

 

 

i thought the who forumula thing was a nifty idea but just that- an idea.......

 

the main draw of course was the outcome of all the eliminations and what not....... but let face the facts we have a scedual that is doable but not a cupcake walk either........ its gonna take a lot of hard work (check) desire (check) luck (we will have to see) and a whole lot of other sh#t lining up too......

 

over all i like our chances but lets not get cocky though we have (myself) included have been hyping up this season and next along with the 2011-12 recruiting classes as the ones that could really help us push the corner and become NC condenders for a long time

[Husker Richard]

Interesting read......

Rivals- Profile for 2010 National Champion

[Apathy]

When it got down to #5 it only had three teams remaining: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and the Skers. I wouldn't mind getting a little payback against V Tech but playing against Ohio State would probably be a better game to watch with our defense against Terrelle Pryor.

[IBleedHuskerRed]

That's awesome!

[Touchdown Tommie]

When it got down to #5 it only had three teams remaining: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and the Skers. I wouldn't mind getting a little payback against V Tech but playing against Ohio State would probably be a better game to watch with our defense against Terrelle Pryor.

 

And the fact that tOSU always finds a way to embarrass themselves and the Little 11 in the NC game.

[Miandrital]

Imagine how Bo would feel about an OSU match-up! That would be awesome

[DefensiveLineU]

When it got down to #5 it only had three teams remaining: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and the Skers. I wouldn't mind getting a little payback against V Tech but playing against Ohio State would probably be a better game to watch with our defense against Terrelle Pryor.

 

And the fact that tOSU always finds a way to embarrass themselves and the Little 11 in the NC game.

 

2002 National Championship

#2 Ohio State 31 #1 Miami 24

 

I'm tired of hearing how they choke in every big game give me

a break.

[mitch7]

OSU has lost 2 out its last 3......OU has won 0 out of their last 3 since 2003