John Clayton: Rams Will Take Bradford #1, Not Suh

[mmmtodd]

ESPN.com -- Story and Video Link

 

INDIANAPOLIS -- In a perfect world, NFL teams draft the best players and best athletes available.

 

Each February, coaches, scouts and general managers assemble here to evaluate approximately 330 players. It's the perfect world. They interview the draft-eligible players and evaluate the physical skills of the ones who work out.

 

Once everyone leaves Indianapolis, though, the perfect world disappears. Financial considerations enter the decision-making process, and those financial decisions will have a major impact on the 2010 draft.

 

At the top of every draft, teams don't necessarily select the best athletes available. Often, teams take the players who make economic sense based on the positions they play.

 

This year's draft will be the perfect test case for that premise. Most draft experts consider Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska, Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma and Eric Berry of Tennessee to be the top three players. Here's the problem: Suh and McCoy are defensive tackles. Berry is a free safety.If the Rams balk at paying a defensive tackle big money, Sam Bradford stands to benefit.

 

Most likely, at least a couple of teams at the top of the draft won't be able to justify paying a defensive tackle or a safety top-three money. It could lead to a quarterback (Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen) or a left tackle (Russell Okung) vaulting up the draft board. Sure, coaches and general managers draft players in relation to talent and rankings, but finances and the reality of the game do enter the discussion.

 

Let's start with the St. Louis Rams. They have the No. 1 pick, and many people believe St. Louis likes Suh more than McCoy. Here's the problem: Drafting Suh No. 1 when the franchise is without a true starting quarterback doesn't make much sense, particularly if the Rams don't bring back Marc Bulger.

 

Looking at the football side of things, Suh might not make sense for the Rams anyway. Selecting the Nebraska defensive tackle would mean the Rams would have him on a defensive line with Chris Long and Adam Carriker, three first-round defensive tackles in the past four years.

 

The problem facing the Rams is that they aren't one defensive tackle away from being competitive. They went 1-15 this past season. Adding Suh without a top quarterback might keep the Rams in double-digit loss territory.

 

Dominating defensive tackles can make an impact on good teams, but they don't always change the fate of bad teams. Former Steelers coach Chuck Noll built his Steel Curtain defense around Mean Joe Greene, but that team was loaded with Hall of Famers. Defensive tackles who go to bad teams can do only so much.

 

The Seahawks got a Hall of Fame career from defensive tackle Cortez Kennedy, the third pick in the 1990 draft, but Seattle had only one playoff appearance during his great career. Glenn Dorsey, the fifth pick in the 2008 draft, didn't stop the downturn of the Kansas City Chiefs. Steve Emtman (Colts) and Dan Wilkinson (Bengals) were top picks, but they didn't turn around bad teams. The Cleveland Browns drafted Gerard Warren No. 3 in 2001, but the team struggled throughout the 2000s.

That's why I predict the Rams will draft Bradford instead of Suh.

 

The Lions' 3-13 season in 2009 was a little more tolerable because they drafted Matthew Stafford. Quarterbacks offer more hope than defensive tackles, even if most teams rate the defensive tackle as the better choice. You win in this league with quarterbacks.

 

As great as Albert Haynesworth is as a player, the Redskins went from a playoff contender to 4-12 last season after giving Haynesworth a $100 million contract.

 

If Suh or McCoy is the top pick, either player will command a contract in the $12 million-a-year range. Teams would rather pay that for quarterbacks, left tackles or pass-rushing defensive ends who can produce sacks.

 

The economic realities also should affect Berry's chances of going in the top three. Maybe Berry can be the next Ed Reed or the next Troy Polamalu. Top safeties, though, make less than $8 million a year. If Berry goes No. 3 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he probably would get a five-year deal for around $50 million, approximately $10 million a year.

 

If the Bucs take him at No. 3 and he isn't the most dominating safety in league history, they might not be able to justify re-signing him. He'd ask for a raise, and it will be hard for the Bucs to justify paying him more than $10 million a year.

 

If this were a perfect world, Suh, McCoy and Berry could go 1-2-3. The draft isn't perfect anymore because of economics. That's why I think the quarterbacks will move up with maybe one -- most likely Bradford -- going to the Rams.

[redblooded]

God help the team that makes that mistake, they'll be kicking themselves down the road. There are no dependable good quarterbacks in the draft this year. Bradford may not have the durability to survive the NFL.

 

Hopefully the rams trade #1 to an actual pro team.

[redout22]

I know the rams are stupid but are they really dumb enough not to trade it away if they do want a QB??

I know Clayton has some ties with executives but I still think Kiper and McShay know way more about the draft than him.

[sewardite4NU]

I heard Adam Schefter say on SportsCenter he wouldn't be surprised if the Rams took Clausen or Bradford, especially Bradford. He listed pretty much the same reasons as Clayton. Teams are built around QBs and the number 1 pick isn't typically used on a DT. I tend to agree with him. I honestly can't say I'd blame them for taking a quarterback. I'd love to see Suh go first, but I can't see the Rams paying a DT number 1 pick money. Hopefully a decent team trades up to get him.

[HuskersGJ]

There are no QB's in this draft that are worth the #1 pick. The Rams could get so much from a trade and STILL get their QB.

I've only recently come to terms with Suh possibly going to St. Louis (lately the black hole of DLinemen) but I don't think I could ever stomoch seeing him in Detroit. I know the Saints just went from annual NFL doormat to Super Bowl Champs, so anything is possible. But Detroit? Aside from being a crap franchise its also, well... Detroit.

[knapplc]

Michael Jordan was taken 3rd by the Bulls after Hakeem Olajuwon (Houston Rockets) and Sam Bowie (Portland Trail Blazers). You can't complain much if you're the Rockets with Hakeem, but Portland is probably still kicking themselves for that pick.

 

Bottom line - the best players don't always go #1. I'd love to see Suh go first, but if he doesn't, I'd like to see him go to a team serious about defense.

[HSKRNOKC]

Economics VS opportunity..

[zoogs]

I'd love to see Suh go to a good team more than I'd love to see him go first. Maybe the Lions are on their way to turning it around with Stafford to build around. In that case, I hope he goes to them. Somewhere where he can make a huge difference.

[Fuzzy]

I agree with Zoogies. It would be nice to see him make an immediate impact on the league, than go #1 in the draft to a team that won't reap his full abilities for some time. Though it would be nice to see him line up with fellow ex-Husker Adam Carriker.

 

He still plays for the Rams, right?

[Ringer02]

lol Shoulder!

[hack]

i can see the logic in that decision. on that note, the Rams' loss will clearly be another franchise's gain.

[kansas husker]

I thought it was a joke when I read the title. I half expected a link to the onion. He does make some good points I would love for a good team to trade up. Imagine what a team like dallas or one of the new york teams could do if they had suhs foot work creating penatration in the middle of the line. Maybe this could be the best draft ever the chiefs score som monster picks from the jets and suh goes to a winning team. Hey it could happen.

[huskered17]

Any place, but the Cowboys!!!

 

GBR!!!

[DJR313]

Bradford at #1 would be a huge reach IMO. I think he is a reach where they have him slotted at #4. I really think his supporting cast and offensive system made him look much better than he actually is. St. Louis would regret making that decision 2-3 years down the road and then probably forever. One thing is for sure, if the Rams are foolish enough to pass on Suh, Detroit won't now that Matt Millen is gone.

[BeachBuffs]

I still hold out hope that Kid McD can pull off some coup if they get a 1st round pick for Marshall and then trade up for Suh.