Can the defense be better in 2010?

[Redmusky]

We lose four starters on D one of which was the best player in college football . We have seven returning players and a number of players who seen the field and gained experience. We most likely will not have a number 3 D in 2010 but I believe should be in the top 20 and this D will improve each time out like in the last 3 years. If the offence improves we should be good for 10 plus wins.

[ESPY]

This feels like the best thread to insert this name-drop from Prince after today's practice - huskerextra link.

Senior cornerback Prince Amukamara said one young player whose work ethic has impressed him is redshirt freshman Lazarri Middleton.

 

The 6-1, 190-pound Middleton, from Long Beach, Calif., is part of a very deep secondary that Pelini said he feels “great about” this spring.

 

Amukamara noted that Middleton often texts him on the weekend to meet him at the stadium and put in more football work.

 

“Lazarri is a very hungry player,” Amukamara said. “He kind of reminds me of myself because he does have the athletic ability and he has the ‘want to’ — (that’s) what the coaches will call it. I think you should see big things from Lazarri.”

I tell you what, these are the things I love hearing from our seniors, especially the bolded part. Another Amukamara in waiting? YES PLEASE!

[Danimal]

 

Still looking for the link but just saw an article a while back about teams that have done better after losing Heisman winners. Why is it you think there will be so much drop off? Our likely starters all have plenty of game time. That means last year we still had good D even when Suh did step off the field. He and the other seniors we lost were great but not the whole team. So sit down and have a glass with me.

 

edit: 1st link I'll keep going 2010 compared to 94

That link didn't work but here's a working version: http://bigrednetwork.com/archives/2010/03/how_2010_resembles_1994.html

 

The reason I don't think this season is particularly like 1994 is that the 2009 Nebraska team was one of the most one sided teams I have ever seen. The defense was amazing . . . one of the best I have ever seen play college football. The offense was atrocious . . . one of the worst I have ever seen at Nebraska. (granted, Bo did shut down the offense and go into bunker mode.) The 1994 and 1995 Nebraska teams were relatively balanced in that both the offense and the defense were well above average. In my opinion, the offense in 1995 was dominant enough that it took some of the pressure off of the defense. Can the 2010 Nebraska offense improve and take some pressure off the defense? Certainly. I hope that's the case.

 

Anyways, here is my breakdown.

 

2010 cornerbacks > 2009 cornerbacks. Same players back but with more depth and experience. (+1)

 

2010 safeties < or = 2009 safeties. Have to replace both starting safeties. There is talent on the roster but it hasn't proven anything yet. I'd venture a guess that by the end of the season the 2010 safeties will be roughly as good as the 2009 safeties . . . but it will take some time to develop that consistency. (wash)

 

2010 linebackers < 2009 linebackers. I'm basing this entirely on the loss of Dillard because he was often the only linebacker on the field. Dillard was absolutely clutch. He made sideline to sideline plays against the run and even broke up some deep balls to receivers. Dillard was the best linebacker on the roster and it wasn't particularly close. Compton, Fisher, and May showed flashes of potential over the last few seasons but have not been overly impressive. Throw in the unproven wildcards of David and Martin who look the part but haven't played the position yet. There is potential to be good here . . . but it's unproven. (-1)

 

2010 defensive ends = 2009 defensive ends. We lose Barry Turner but Pierre Allen is back along with a host of other contributors. I think between some combination of Meredith (if he stays at DE) and Ankrah there won't be any dropoff here. (wash)

 

2010 defensive tackles << 2009 defensive tackles. Don't crucify me for this and keep in mind that I'd love to be wrong. HOWEVER . . . Suh was probably the best defensive linemen I have ever seen play college football. He was consistently double teamed and STILL led the team in tackles. That's incredible. Teams literally formed their gameplans to neutralize Suh and he was still absolutely dominant. I think Crick has the potential to be good, but it would be absolutely incredible if he was "Suh good." Crick will probably be double teamed on most plays and I'm not sure he can absorb the double teams and STILL make the plays like Suh did. Yes . . . Crick will occupy two blockers and therefore open things up for the other DT . . . but Suh could occupy two blockers and STILL make the tackle. That's unbelievable. We have a lot of depth at the position with Crick, Steinkuhler, Moore, Randle, etc. but there will only be two on the field at a time. I don't see any combination of the above (Crick & Moore, Crick & Steinkuhler, Crick & Randle) that will exceed the production of Crick & Suh. Just my opinion. (-2, at least)

 

So to tie it all together I expect an equal or slightly improved secondary and defensive ends . . . and a slight dropoff at linebacker and a big dropoff at defensive tackle. Therefore with my rudimentary point system (that I just invented) I'd put it at about a -2 overall. Note that I totally just pulled this out of my nether region and it has no statistical basis . . . or basis in fact at all. Just my opinion.

 

 

I'd say DE should be better in '10. Allen will be a year better. Meredith was playing fairly comparably to Turner in '09 and should be as good as Turner in '10. Plus Asante is a beast that could challenge for starts and Williams will be in the mix.

[GMoose]

Agreed. I think the D ends might end up being the best in years. We go two-deep with studs...and I'm really excited to see Ankrah this year.

[brophog]

"Better" needs to be defined.

 

Statistically, it is a mess. Take for example the probable conclusion I am seeing in this thread of an improved offense. What's that mean statistically?

 

Total Defense numbers are bound to go down, simply due to far fewer defensive plays on the field.

Sack numbers are also bound to go down, for the same reason. This defense did a remarkable job last year of continually getting itself off of the field. It created short drives for the opposition, and combined with the increased number of possessions by both teams that meant a lot of desirable pass rushing opportunities.

 

Yards per play is a tempo free metric, but it is hard to get much "better" in that regard. It was under 4 yards per play as it was, and any improvement there is likely to be small.

 

"Better" for me is defined by the personnel. One person against one person, perhaps not. Overall, however, this defense will have more better players, far more depth, and be far more versatile.

 

Yes, Dillard played well his senior season, but we had very little help at the LB position. We relied too heavily on youth, and one of the big reasons the defense improved as the season went on was we found out that our best combination was using Dime personnel, regardless of the opposition. Against KU, that was a mismatch in their favor. They were able to dictate assignments that left us with one free man against their RB, and that was all too often Opurum vs Gomes. Gomes played his tail off when given the opportunity, but from a straight size advantage he was ill equipped. We'd have rather had a LB against that particular personnel package.

 

Our overall experience is much better. Certain players will be asked to contribute this year for the first time as starters/regulars, but those players are now in their 3rd year in the program. The returning players are more experienced. Experience is like an avalanche.......it has a bigger impact as it rolls along. In year one, it was just coaches coaching players. In year two, it was coaches and a very few players with some experience coaching the other players. In year three, it finally begins to snowball because the collective pool of knowledge has grown to that point. Players have the tools and knowledge now to do more things on their own, and teach more players on their own.

 

In a sport with loosely "governed" time limits whereby the principle governance is coaching contact, the effect of that snowball is magnified even further.

 

Finally, this defense isn't starting from ground zero the way it has had to do the past two years. One of the reasons Bo "appears" to have difficulty in the middle of the season is that he has had to find ways to win once the real season begins. Spring and fall camp were more about just getting guys ready to play, rather than honing developed skills. That shows in midseason when the real competition starts and you find out that foundation isn't where you'd like. To Bo's credit, he's been able to scramble and find things that work to win games at the end of the season. In my opinion, Bo's excitement and the reason to be so optimistic is that we're at that level where most of that foundation is under us. It's now time to bring the young guys up to speed and hone existing strengths.

 

When time is your commodity, the way it is in collegiate athletics, that makes a world of difference to the overall final product we see on the field. We can compare player A from December to player B in April and see a mismatch. Then again, if we looked at the defense in September last year and compared it to the one that finished in December, there is no comparison. That gap from the start of the season to the end of the season, for the total defense, should be smaller and in terms of the overall team success for the year that is huge.

[Landlord]

The main points of what I believe have already been posted, so this is all I have to say in support of our defense being better last year.

 

 

 

People keep referring to last year's defense as one of the best they have ever seen. What were our expectations before the season? The first two years under Bo, the defense has performed substantially better than anticipated, and I think that will continue to be the trend.

 

The only other thing I have to say is that another year of progression under Pelini Bros. system, in my opinion, will completely negate and maybe even over-compensate for any drop-off the defense might have because of graduating players.

[In the Deed the Glory]

Although I hope we are going to be better or at least equal to last year's squad, I think we will give up many long drives especially early. When you lose the entire middle of your defense and all are experienced players you can't assume you are going to be better on paper.

 

Asante, O'Hanlon, Dillard, and Suh. It is no coincidence that those players are household names. They were that good. I also agree with most posters, you can't use the "We run the dime/nickel all of the time anyway" excuse. We could do that because of one thing.....Ndamukong Suh. Dillard made many tackles because he was free and unblocked.

 

If we try that this year, I believe we give up many long runs on the zone read. It will be a completely different defensive scheme. Still good, top ten in the country good, but they will not be as good as last year.

 

How can you be? That defense was number 1 in scoring defense with virtually no help from the offense. That is unprecedented. We may look back and realize that could have been the best defense in the history of Nebraska Football, maybe the history of College Football.

 

I will say I don't see us ever having a defense that isn't top 3 in the conference at any point in Bo's career. Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma will be the best and I don't think much will separate them.

[knapplc]

I'd say DE should be better in '10. Allen will be a year better. Meredith was playing fairly comparably to Turner in '09 and should be as good as Turner in '10. Plus Asante is a beast that could challenge for starts and Williams will be in the mix.

 

I think DE will be improved this year as well. I'm sick today and I can't think straight, but the coaches were saying both Turner and Allen were injured last year, Allen with a turf toe or some other lower extremity problem. If he's healthy and even remotely close to what he was in 2008, that's an improvement. On top of that, Meredith outperformed Turner play-for-play last year, and if he doesn't get the starting job Ankrah will and that'll be a +1 overall for the DEs.

 

So to use Carlfense's rankings (which I otherwise agree with) that puts us at -1 overall, which I would conservatively agree with based on the Unknown factor of several players. However, if we take the coaches at their word, and I think Bo and Carl can be trusted when speaking of the defense, our overall conservative estimate should be wrong by a couple of degrees.

[carlfense]

Bump.

 

Interesting to look back and match up expectations with results. Note that we were all expecting Fisher and Compton to be playing and they are out . . . so that alters things a bit.

[Igetbored216]

It's now the end of our non-conference schedule and I still don't think we know exactly what we have on defense.

 

On the outside, it looks like we have a great secondary, average linebackers, and maybe a slightly above average d-line.

 

However, I will point out that I don't think our defense last year really started to click until the Mizzou game. So, I am hoping our defense really starts to pick it up and get consistently good during the Kansas St game and they keep improving from there.

[Hercules]

If the defense proves that they can shut down K-State's running game, than I think this will be a better defense in the long run. K-State is stronger this year than last, and I don't think there's much question right now that our secondary can play with anyone in the country. If we can shut down Daniel Thomas, things will be looking up for the Blackshirts.

[Husker Richard]

It's now the end of our non-conference schedule and I still don't think we know exactly what we have on defense.

 

On the outside, it looks like we have a great secondary, average linebackers, and maybe a slightly above average d-line.

 

However, I will point out that I don't think our defense last year really started to click until the Mizzou game. So, I am hoping our defense really starts to pick it up and get consistently good during the Kansas St game and they keep improving from there.

 

 

I'm wondering how much of an impact Compton's return to the linebacking corps will have. I'm hoping its a big one. He's more of a run-stuffer. Lavonte David is more of a Hagg-type player. I really think he lacks the size to be an inside linebacker (please post his season stats so you can call me out and say his size doesn't matter since he's making so many tackles). His size will matter when we face a power running team (KSU).

[Hunter94]

if and when Compton gets back, i predict his return will be huge.....he is a key guy, sorely missed with experience.