knapplc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 That's the headline on an article link at Yahoo, the front page. Then you click the link and you get this: All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one) Those of us in the business of predicting elections rely on two broad sets of data: what has happened in the past, and what polls and markets suggest will happen in the future. In a perfectly ordered society, in which humans acted in reliably rational ways and researchers had access to complete data on every possible influence, making a model like the ones above might be sufficient to predict an election. In reality, models are about as good as those governing where soon-to-be Hurricane Isaac may or may not land: They can point in the general direction, but they can't predict exactly how the dice will fall. The best possible prediction engine factors in both these broad factors and the forward-looking polls and markets that contribute clarity. Our updated model, which does factor in polls and markets, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes. I'm really beginning to hate Yahoo. Their headlines are terribly leading if not downright deceiving. Also, as peer-reviewed as these polls are, I'm not buying any of it. Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Your blinded by your wishing your man wins. I have no clue if Yahoo knows what they are talking about or not. But, Obama is in a world of hurt in this election. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Obama is in a world of hurt in this election. You provided some good data to support your argument. Anyhow, Yahoo articles don't even have proper grammar. I only read them for the comments. Link to comment
NUpolo8 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Obama is in a world of hurt in this election. You provided some good data to support your argument. Anyhow, Yahoo articles don't even have proper grammar. I only read them for the comments. Also for the grammar, I'm assuming. Link to comment
sd'sker Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i think this pretty well describes how much yahoo understands about running a successful business: 1 Link to comment
Comish Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't put much stock in Yahoo, but at least they agree with me. Have had bets out for a year that B.O. is a one-termer. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Obama is in a world of hurt in this election. You provided some good data to support your argument. Anyhow, Yahoo articles don't even have proper grammar. I only read them for the comments. Also for the grammar, I'm assuming. Huh? Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't put much stock in Yahoo, but at least they agree with me. Have had bets out for a year that B.O. is a one-termer. You're betting on your heart Link to comment
carlfense Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 But, Obama is in a world of hurt in this election. Based on what? Your gut feeling? Link to comment
Landlord Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 There's no way Obama loses this election. No possible way. Link to comment
knapplc Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't put much stock in Yahoo, but at least they agree with me. Have had bets out for a year that B.O. is a one-termer. I think you should re-read the article, not the headline (which was the point I was making with this thread - Yahoo uses deceptive headlines to entice you to read their articles). When you're reading it again, pay special attention to this part: Our updated model, which does factor in polls and markets, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes. Link to comment
Comish Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't put much stock in Yahoo, but at least they agree with me. Have had bets out for a year that B.O. is a one-termer. I think you should re-read the article, not the headline (which was the point I was making with this thread - Yahoo uses deceptive headlines to entice you to read their articles). When you're reading it again, pay special attention to this part: Our updated model, which does factor in polls and markets, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes. opps............just saw the thread headline...............I guess they DON'T agree. Doesn't matter..............the American people are not that dumb. They see what he promised and what has actually happened. I still feel really positive about those wagers. Link to comment
Comish Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 There's no way Obama loses this election. No possible way. On the contrary................LOTS of possible ways. Let's revisit on Nov 7th (or Nov 3, if your using Michelle's calendar)... Link to comment
Comish Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't put much stock in Yahoo, but at least they agree with me. Have had bets out for a year that B.O. is a one-termer. You're betting on your heart Of course that is my hope...............but the bet is more on the American people being tired of being talked down to and asked to believe he has the tools and/or economic sense or WILL to fix this economy. Link to comment
carlfense Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 opps............just saw the thread headline...............I guess they DON'T agree. Doesn't matter..............the American people are not that dumb. They see what he promised and what has actually happened. I still feel really positive about those wagers. What do you think the odds are? I'd put them at roughly 70/30 in Obama's favor. Subject of course to whatever world events happen in the next 74 days. Link to comment
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