Nebraska's Chance Against Our Schedule

[desertshox]

Because it has no real relationship, beyond coincidence, with the present or future seasons. It's far more meaningful to look at the teams that will actually be playing than a record that includes teams made up entirely of players who aren't even here any more. If you start doing that, it really starts bordering on magical thinking.

 

yep, a trend with pelini coached teams losing no fewer than 2 games at home in a season and having become a team that plays better at home is magical thinking.

 

dear lord i need to start smoking crack to read this board.

[kchusker_chris]

2008 6-2

2009 5-2

2010 6-1

2011 6-1

2012 7-0

2013 3-1

 

so why exactly shouldnt we take him serious? through the first 5 years they have only averaged 1.2 losses at home a season and had won 10 in a row until the ucla loss.

because 40% of the time he'd be wrong. not exactly "rare"

[presidentjlh]

I still don't get the fear of Michigan State. They are so bad on offense that I just can't be afraid of them.

[kchusker_chris]

I still don't get the fear of Michigan State. They are so bad on offense that I just can't be afraid of them.

yeah, but do you trust our offense against that D? UCLA isn't exactly a solid D and they held us scoreless for 2 and half quarters. If we struggled to get 21 against UCLA, we'll struggle to get 21 against MSU. Is 21 points going to be enough with our D? I'd say it's pretty dang close. this one will come down to turnovers I think, and it's rare we come out on the winning end of that deal.

[presidentjlh]

I do trust our offense on this. I feel there's a much stronger chance the offense continues to improve than the defense, and as long as our offense is clicking, we can at least win against Michigan State. Now, the other three, Penn State, Michigan, and Northwestern, will require improvements in defense for us to win, and that's a greater long shot.

[Ulty]

I still don't get the fear of Michigan State. They are so bad on offense that I just can't be afraid of them.

 

NU's D has a knack for allowing mediocre offenses to have big days. And our offense is consistently inconsistent. On the other hand, Martinez shredded a pretty good MSU defense last year, and we crushed them last time they came to Lincoln.

[kchusker_chris]

I do trust our offense on this. I feel there's a much stronger chance the offense continues to improve than the defense, and as long as our offense is clicking, we can at least win against Michigan State. Now, the other three, Penn State, Michigan, and Northwestern, will require improvements in defense for us to win, and that's a greater long shot.

I'll feel better about the O after the next couple of weeks I think. They looked great last week, but that all gets washed away when Martinez comes back, and I don't mean that negatively I just mean that a lot of what we saw changes w/ him in the game.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

A few pointers, Nate:

 

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

 

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

 

 

2008 6-2

2009 5-2

2010 6-1

2011 6-1

2012 7-0

2013 3-1

 

so why exactly shouldnt we take him serious? through the first 5 years they have only averaged 1.2 losses at home a season and had won 10 in a row until the ucla loss.

 

Because it has no real relationship, beyond coincidence, with the present or future seasons. It's far more meaningful to look at the teams that will actually be playing than a record that includes teams made up entirely of players who aren't even here any more. If you start doing that, it really starts bordering on magical thinking.

 

I get what you're saying, I really do. But I think what you have to remember is that it is my "fan" perspective. I would not have said ANYTHING like that had I been actually trying to soundly and statistically predict the remainder of our schedule.

 

I understand that losing less than 2 home games isn't guaranteed by the fact that we haven't in the past 4 years. All it does it make it more likely to occur in our heads, not probabilistically. It's a trend.

[NUinID]

Based on the opponents we have left... Nebraska's record stands at 7-5.

 

To improve that, the Huskers have to get over in games where the opponent should have the advantage. Here is a list of toss up games with the highest probabilty of a Husker win first and then following in order after that.

 

Penn State... the Nitany Lions have a pretty good ground game, a QB that should be pretty developed by the time the Huskers come calling, and a home field advantage at Beaver Stadium. On the flip side, the Nitany Lions might have some penalty related depth issues by then.

Michigan State... defense, defense, defense. Sparty should be stingy. And blow ups by the Husker defense could make it hard for Nebraska to win. At the same time, however, the Mich State offense isn't exactly outstanding.

Northwestern... these guys move the chains very well. And that could be bad since it will keep the ball away from our offense. In 2011, the Wildcats piled up the first downs and the TOP that generated ended up resulting in a win for Northwestern.

Michigan.... they have home field and some pretty dynamic players. The temptation would be to not see them as dangerous because of Akron and UConn, but that might be a knee jerk reaction too.

 

What seem like LOCKS for Nebraska are Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa. But the Huskers have lost in head scratching ways before... Iowa State... and after watching the SDSU offense run through our defense, it's really hard to have a lot of confidence about anything right now.

 

I always love how fans see very few warts when they look at opponents, but find lots of flaws in their favorite team. Every team has flaws some are glaring and easy to spot some are not. Even Alabama has flaws. Their pass defense is fairly average this year.

 

Let the season play out. The defense will get better.

[Dr. Mantis Toboggan]

I still don't get the fear of Michigan State. They are so bad on offense that I just can't be afraid of them.

 

NU's D has a knack for allowing mediocre offenses to have big days. And our offense is consistently inconsistent. On the other hand, Martinez shredded a pretty good MSU defense last year, and we crushed them last time they came to Lincoln.

Plus, MSU has never beaten Nebraska. This year will be no different.

[memyselfandillini]

How have Nebraska teams under Pelini been at dealing with trick plays? Illinois has incorporated them into the regular offense a lot during the non-conference schedule so that could be something you have to contend with next week.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

How have Nebraska teams under Pelini been at dealing with trick plays? Illinois has incorporated them into the regular offense a lot during the non-conference schedule so that could be something you have to contend with next week.

 

The thing about trick plays is, unless you incorporate them on nearly every play, you're still going to have to have a consistent production when not running trick plays. While I think Illinois will be able to get some production, I don't think that production will be consistent. With how Nebraska has the chance to move the ball on offense, Illinois is going to need to match them.

 

You all will get yards and you will get your points, but I don't think the trick plays will be enough to keep up with the offense that Nebraska is going to generate.

[Redux]

If we wait for the play to develop like we did against UCLA, trick plays could go for monster gains.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

If we wait for the play to develop like we did against UCLA, trick plays could go for monster gains.

 

I thought the whole idea of a trick play was to exploit a team not waiting for a play to develop

[Redux]

D line wise in that game we played a wait and see scheme that torched us. If we go up against a fake that exposesbour lack of pressure we could get burned. No promise we even see that though.