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15-20% chance.

 

Let's stop overreacting to how bad Illinois beat the Redhawks. Here is a list of teams who are, according to Sagarin, better than Miami (OH):

 

Missouri State

Sacramento State

Jacksonville State

Fordham

Eastern Kentucky

North Dakota

Tennessee State

Illinois State

Samford

Harvard

Northern Arizona

and many more FCS teams

 

So, please, everyone, STOP OVERREACTING.

 

I'm not reacting to them beating Miami. I'm reacting to seeing their offense move at will on Cincinnati and Miami, as well as giving #16 Washington a very good game a couple of weeks ago. Until our defense proves otherwise, any team with a competent offense can torch us for 40 points. And Illinois offense looks to be a step above competent.

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Oh, definitely that's not the case, but something like this presents a slightly less macro story of the game as it unfolds, compared to just total game stats. We can see, for example, that the defense totally gave way to Wyoming late in the game, at the worst time. UCLA we opened up very impressively and then they turned it around and kicked our asses in the second half. SDSU was never stuffed, but held (comparatively) in check compared with a pretty rough start to the game.

 

I agree that a chart of a yards and points per quarter shows in which quarters we gave up the most yards and points. I guess I don't know why that matters.

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Well, it's like he said. Maybe it's a game where we are consistently in stalemate vs the offense, or maybe it's a game where the defense does a great job for a while, and then utterly falls apart. Total yards don't tell that story.

 

Junior, I don't know. I suppose any time ever the argument could be made about whether it was Team A doing a good job or Team B just being terrible.

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Well, it's like he said. Maybe it's a game where we are consistently in stalemate vs the offense, or maybe it's a game where the defense does a great job for a while, and then utterly falls apart. Total yards don't tell that story.

 

I agree but you can also see that from watching the game. The point I was angling towards is that all defenses (good or bad) usually give up a disproportionately large and small number of yards in some quarters of a particular game. That Nebraska is no different says nothing about how good or bad this defense is or will be.

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I'm not reacting to them beating Miami. I'm reacting to seeing their offense move at will on Cincinnati and Miami, as well as giving #16 Washington a very good game a couple of weeks ago. Until our defense proves otherwise, any team with a competent offense can torch us for 40 points. And Illinois offense looks to be a step above competent.

Did you watch that game? UW made a bunch of stupid mistakes and bonhead plays to keep Illinois in it. They should have won by 4 touchdowns, easily.

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I'm not reacting to them beating Miami. I'm reacting to seeing their offense move at will on Cincinnati and Miami, as well as giving #16 Washington a very good game a couple of weeks ago. Until our defense proves otherwise, any team with a competent offense can torch us for 40 points. And Illinois offense looks to be a step above competent.

Did you watch that game? UW made a bunch of stupid mistakes and bonhead plays to keep Illinois in it. They should have won by 4 touchdowns, easily.

 

Yeah, but if they run it up our gut next week they will be in it to the end. I can't believe South Dakota State went away from the running game. It would have been quite a bit closer otherwise. Illinois is much better. I'm very concerned about this game.

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I didn't know whether you were serious or not, but I kind of think all message board names are dumb, including mine, so I didn't really take offense. :D Especially as a noob poster from an opposing fanbase.

 

I do have a quibble with this message board though because perusing the "smiley" choices just now you have customized "smiley" things to bash Colorado, Nebraska and Texas yet have yet to create one for any B1G foe yet. What's that about?

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