MSU Defense Skewed

[huskerinacaveman]

I was reading a stat line that said that MSU was giving up something like 40 yards of rushing per game.

 

Man that is impressive...or is it?

 

MSU has yet to play a team that ranks higher than 33rd in the run game, and in that game this team ran for 92 yards, threw for 350 and scored 28 points at MSU. This team is Indiana.

 

Yards to me are the biggest indicator of a defense, points win games, but you don't get points without yards.

 

This is what MSU as faced so far this year on offense.

(All numbers represent national FBS rankings)

Western Michigan Pass 73 Run 111

South Florida Pass 112 Run 113

Youngstown State FCS

Notre Dame Pass 44 Run 85

Iowa Pass 88 Run 43

Indiana Pass 12 Run 33

Purdue Pass 97 Run 122

Illinois Pass 23 Run 96

Michigan Pass 51 Run 97

Nebraska Pass 92 Run 14

 

The best team top to bottom statistically that has played MSU is Indiana.

 

I'm not saying that MSU's defense is bad because they haven't played anyone. I am saying that MSU's defense is good but it hasn't been tested in the run game so far. Most teams have that they have played favor (most times largely) the passing game.

 

Nebraska has to beat MSU in the run game on both sides of the ball. Its the chink in their armor on both sides of the ball.

 

Off the top of my head one could say that Nebraska running game could be skewed too because of the competition. So If anyone has the time or desire to be the devil's advocate and bring up Nebraska's competition against run defenses I'd like to see it, but I have to go to class.

[Count 'Bility]

I was gonna state this yesterday, but I didnt have time to find the stats to back it up. Nice work.

 

Like the hype Texas's '09 defense got for being the best in the nation against the run. They were in the Big 12. No one tried to run it.

 

This is not trying to say Michigan St's defense is not good. They are. They are very good. Always are. Narduzzi is a great D mind. Dantonio is a defenisive coach. But sometimes a team that is very good isnt exactly world beaters either.

[HuskerShark]

MSU's defense passes both statistic tests and eye tests. Indiana's offense is no joke. They could move the ball on just about anybody, which they did as you said against (IMO) the best defense in college football.

[NshawU]

I'd feel a lot better about this post if our OL was at full strength. That's what is really worrying me about this game.

[Landlord]

MSU's defense passes both statistic tests and eye tests. Indiana's offense is no joke. They could move the ball on just about anybody, which they did as you said against (IMO) the best defense in college football.

 

 

They were also head to their (by far) lowest statistical outputs of the season. I don't know anything about Indiana's offense and their tendencies and schemes, but the only way we have success running the ball is if Armstrong can be serviceable and accurate in the passing game. MSU is going to put 8-9 guys in the box every play, as they are not scared in the least to leave their corners on islands.

[alexhortdog95]

By this argument, though, would the Huskers' defensive stats from last week have been skewed as well?

[Landlord]

By this argument, though, would the Huskers' defensive stats from last week have been skewed as well?

 

 

Yes. Stats are always skewed.

 

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I'm betting Tommy is going to have a good game on Saturday. Like I said after the Northwestern game, there's no greater motivator to get better as a quarterback than to throw a potential game losing interception. We (and Tommy) caught a break--we beat Northwestern, so his interception wasn't all that costly. But he still knows that it could've cost us the game and the season.

 

His game against Michigan was phenomenal. Yeah, he had his freshman mistakes, but he didn't turn the ball over and was very smart with his reads.

[ADS]

Almost all stats are technically skewed, but their defense is still great and will force us in to some really bad plays.

[TheSker]

Yards to me are the biggest indicator of a defense, points win games, but you don't get points without yards.

I understand where you are coming from with this thought, but there are other factors that are very important. Three of these factors are turnovers, starting field position and red zone defense. As an example from this season, UCLA put some points on the board against us, but they didn't need to rack up a bunch of yardage to do so especially in the third quarter. Their drives were starting at mid-field.

[HuskerShark]

MSU's defense passes both statistic tests and eye tests. Indiana's offense is no joke. They could move the ball on just about anybody, which they did as you said against (IMO) the best defense in college football.

 

 

They were also head to their (by far) lowest statistical outputs of the season. I don't know anything about Indiana's offense and their tendencies and schemes, but the only way we have success running the ball is if Armstrong can be serviceable and accurate in the passing game. MSU is going to put 8-9 guys in the box every play, as they are not scared in the least to leave their corners on islands.

 

I guess that's the thing that worries me a little as well, but not in the same way it worries you. The reason I'm concerned about MSU putting 8 or 9 in the box isn't because I think they will stuff our running attack. I'm concerned because Beck will look at the 8-man box and try to throw it all over the field instead of keeping it on the ground and staying physical. He has a major tendency to do that, and it's the most frustrating thing to see because our offense has the capability of grabbing 250+ rush yards every single game, but he tries to get too cute and play finesse ball with WR screens and zone read and lining up in the shotgun in short-yardage situations.

 

I just really hope that Beck keeps the ball in our RBs' hands 50-60% of the time and runs downhill running plays at them. Then when we experience some success with different variations of a running attack, we can play action and hit big pass plays to loosen up the defense.

[alexhortdog95]

If Beck gets pass happy (like he's shown to do at times), this will be a very short game for the offense.

Line up in the I, pound the rock. Setup for play action passing, hit big passes over the top on occasion.

 

Ball control offenses excel against defenses like this one if they are physical enough.

 

[Landlord]

If Beck gets pass happy (like he's shown to do at times), this will be a very short game for the offense.

Line up in the I, pound the rock. Setup for play action passing, hit big passes over the top on occasion.

 

Ball control offenses excel against defenses like this one if they are physical enough.

 

 

Speaking of ball control offenses, MSU is 2nd in the nation in time of possession.

[Danny Bateman]

If Beck gets pass happy (like he's shown to do at times), this will be a very short game for the offense.

Line up in the I, pound the rock. Setup for play action passing, hit big passes over the top on occasion.

 

Ball control offenses excel against defenses like this one if they are physical enough.

That's the question though... can this patchwork OL, missing three starters from the beginning of the year, maintain that physicality for the entire game? Can it generate it in the first place?

[alexhortdog95]

If Beck gets pass happy (like he's shown to do at times), this will be a very short game for the offense.

Line up in the I, pound the rock. Setup for play action passing, hit big passes over the top on occasion.

 

Ball control offenses excel against defenses like this one if they are physical enough.

That's the question though... can this patchwork OL, missing three starters from the beginning of the year, maintain that physicality for the entire game? Can it generate it in the first place?

 

If they stay ahead of the chains, they've got a shot. That depends on the game plan that Beck draws up for this game. Sparty's D is very aggressive. You can't put Armstrong back there on first and second down to pass all the time. Win first down if you can.

 

Mix in a screen pass or two. And don't think that the option is working this weekend.