McKewon: Are We Overestimating Our Ability to Run the Ball

[tschu]

 

Basically Sam is correct in his analysis of last year's performance, but I don't know that historically this is much of a thing that we need to be indicted on as fans. A 3-year stretch of 2nd, 31st, and 7th nationally is pretty good, followed by an admittedly down year although injuries probably played a part.

 

But I get what he is saying in that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that Armstrong + Abdullah = an overall outstanding rush game. That's a pair that was 63rd nationally in ypc against winning teams last year. No doubt that our running game will be above average, likely good, but will it be elite? Let's not jump to that conclusion.

How much of that was because we had a freshman starting at quarterback that didn't really scare teams (especially the good defenses) passing so they just keyed in on the run? If our passing game is more efficient, teams will have to respect it more, making our run game even more efficient.

 

 

I guess my main worry is - how much more efficient will our passing game be? If we have to ride Abdullah into the ground all year, well, I don't like that thought at all. It really is an interesting dynamic. Will the passing game free up space for Ameer & Co? Will Ameer draw 8 into the box and set up the passing game? If that happens early, will Tommy get confidence and build upon that? If the passing game largely fails, will that hurt the rushing game as well? It's kind of interesting and paradoxical, almost a set of positive or negative feedback loops.

[RedDenver]

We ran for 182 yards at 5.7 per against one of the best rushing defenses in the country despite multiple turnovers. I'm not worried.

McKewon's entire point is that fans are overestimating NU's run game based on one good performance against a good team (MSU).

[The King]

Didn't really read the article, but lets see if I can counter most of his points:

 

Well, our OL got decimated by injuries that year, Taylor sucked and got injured, teams completely loaded the box against us with or without Taylor because they knew Taylor couldn't pass accurately and then we had a RS Frosh that never played as his replacement who was still struggling with a knee injury that tended to be inaccurate because he isn't Jameis Winston coming off of knee surgery and he wasn't very good. Not to mention our WRs were dinged up pretty badly as well.

 

So whats new?

 

Well, a healthy OL, an all-american/conference caliber Alex Lewis joining an already STACKED OL, a healthy QB who is now more accurate and faster due to his knee being fully healthy, and who also now has a complete grasp of the playbook, better at reading defenses and audibling out of good/bad plays. Our play calling should be even better because our WRs are talented & could go 8 deep if we really wanted to. Our passing game will open up our running game even more so than in the past. Did I mention a QB who, while they may not house it frequently like taylor, will not take horrible losses for the most part? One of the most impressive things I've heard is that we rarely get behind the sticks with Tommy. Not turning this into a Taylor vs. X thread, but I like that its not huge play or bust. Work the drive if you have to, its not all about home run plays. Its a 4 quarter game.

 

Oh and I guarantee that whenever its 3rd and short or 3rd and 5, if we run the ball, you can be damn sure Alex Lewis is going to be a part of the play, if not running directly off his ass on the left side. The defense knows a little bit about whats that like. Cotton/Lewis and Cross/Abdullah coming at you, have fun.

 

Silly article.

 

One thing I'll agree with, Beck needs to find his bread & butter, but it appears he found it running behind the left side of the line.

[tschu]

Didn't really read the article, but lets see if I can counter most of his points:

 

what

[The Dude]

 

an all-american/conference caliber Alex Lewis joining an already STACKED OL,

what

[The Dude]

 

WRs are talented & could go 8 deep if we really wanted to.

what

 

 

 

One of the most impressive things I've heard . . .

. . . oh . . . it's all starting to make sense now.

[zoogs]

All Sam is trying to say here, I think, is we can't *just* run the ball. He's explaining why Beck will have to be creative, why we'll need to throw or option or do other things to set up our run game.

 

Husker fans have a tendency to believe that telegraphing a run play and gaining 6 yards a play is the natural order of things. It maybe used to be, but our success in recent times has always relied on finding ways to make it work.

[Mavric]

All Sam is trying to say here, I think, is we can't *just* run the ball. He's explaining why Beck will have to be creative, why we'll need to throw or option or do other things to set up our run game.

 

Husker fans have a tendency to believe that telegraphing a run play and gaining 6 yards a play is the natural order of things. It maybe used to be, but our success in recent times has always relied on finding ways to make it work.

 

Heresy.

[QMany]

I think our running game is very very good, and it could be even better if the passing game is serviceable this year. You have a freshman quarterback early completing 50% of his passes, the defense is going to be teeing off on the run. I don't think you can discount our running game. I can agree that is more simple than "just run the ball."

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

I think Sam needs to sit back, relax, and enjoy the show! Good bad or in between, it's gonna be a helluva ride and I've got my ticket. And let's all remember before we go nitpicking and bashing our beloved team, they aren't losing cause they want to. Oh and we could always be Iowa fans!

[boach_clack]

Offensive Coordinator has to take some heat here. This is bad. It has been bad. We need to become a more balanced attack to keep defenses on their heels. We need better schemes against top strong opponents.

[The Dude]

I think our running game is very very good, and it could be even better if the passing game is serviceable this year. You have a freshman quarterback early completing 50% of his passes, the defense is going to be teeing off on the run. I don't think you can discount our running game. I can agree that is more simple than "just run the ball."

I think the overall completion percentage is secondary to the down field completion percentage. 5-7 yard passes aren't going to have safeties one their heels, even if you complete them at a high percentage.

[BigRedBuster]

Everyone wants us to have a powerful running game. If opposing DCs have the same feelings as people on this board (which is doubtful) they are going to stack the box. If Florida Atlantic stacks the box, I see Beck calling more passing plays than if the defense weren't stacking the box.

If that happens, Husker fans will bitch and moan that Beck passes the ball more even though that is what the situation on the field called for.

 

Also, if you want the stat Sam is talking about here to improve, Beck needs to make those winning FBS DCs respect his passing game to open up the running game. You don't do that by going out against FAU and running the ball 70 times and passing the ball 10.

 

When we get against the good teams on our schedule, they need to have to respect both the pass and the rush. Now, if they respect the pass, that should mean we can then run the ball more effectively and more often.

 

That said, I expect no matter what happens in the first three games, people on here will still be complaining about Beck and not running enough.

[Count 'Bility]

I wonder how the stats would show of every team in the nation running ball against the worst 6 rushing defenses compared to the best 6 rush defenses on their schedule. Isnt that the result of "good" defense? To make a good or great offense look average. In either one aspect or all?

 

and still. That wouldnt even tell the whole story. Maybe that defense is great at stopoping the run but the secondary is suspect. So you expose the weakness. The stats of rushing alone dont show that. Sams getting a little carried away with nitpicking a very small piece of a very large puzzle.

[RedDenver]

I wonder how the stats would show of every team in the nation running ball against the worst 6 rushing defenses compared to the best 6 rush defenses on their schedule. Isnt that the result of "good" defense? To make a good or great offense look average. In either one aspect or all?

The article looks at how teams performed against teams with winning records. McKewon compares NU against other schools and shows NU is average running the ball compared to other teams. I think that's what you're looking for.