Collins Declares for NFL

[StPaulHusker]

 

 

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Nebraska DL gave up almost 900 less yards in 2015 compared to 2014. Take away Melvin Gordon's big day and you are still in the 450-500 yard difference range.

 

You can't take all 400 from Gordon, but say he goes for 150. That's ~650 yard difference.

 

I agree. I just wanted to show that it wasn't as close as cm husker made it out to be.

 

Nebraska gave up a total of 1428 rushing yards this year. If the players managed that because they don't get along with Hughes, then so be it. I hope next years starters hate his guts.

[NUance]

 

 

We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

 

And these guys have a problem?

 

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

 

Maybe the players on the defensive line believe they played better this season despite their coaches, not because of them. Or maybe they believe they could even have done better, with the people they had.

 

Myself, I was pretty underwhelmed with the defensive line's production, considering the players we put on the field.

 

Ummm...Ok.

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

We had 7 fewer sacks last year but also had lost what many consider a great pass rusher and was replaced by arguably a much less talented (although great heart and effort) kid. The other guy (Freedom) who was emerging as a pass rusher had injury problems.

 

Sounds to me like if it's true these guys have problems with the coaching staff, it's because they are pining for the staff that got fired. If they loved them so much, they should have played better so the could keep their jobs.

 

Sorry, I'm not buying what you are selling. Sounds to me like a made up story on message boards by fans who don't like certain coaches on the staff.

 

 

Great post. You hit the nail on the head! +1 :

[cm husker]

 

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Nebraska DL gave up almost 900 less yards in 2015 compared to 2014. Take away Melvin Gordon's big day and you are still in the 450-500 yard difference range.

 

 

Right, but as has been pointed out, the question was "yards per carry" and "rushing touchdowns."

 

Had teams been slowed down in the passing game, they may have pushed for more yards on the ground.

 

That's why these comparisons aren't real enlightening.

[knapplc]

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Neither proving nor disproving this allegation about Wisconsin, I looked at the numbers. If this exercise proved anything, it's that putting numbers into a spreadsheet is always entertaining.

 

 

 

Including Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 487 rushes, giving up 2,357 yards. That's 4.84 yards per carry.

Excluding Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 434 rushes, giving up 1,776 yards. That's 4.09 yards per carry.

 

2015 Nebraska faced 380 rushes, giving up 1,428 yards. That's 3.76 yards per carry.

Excluding 2015 Nebraska's worst rush defense game (Purdue), Nebraska faced 343 rushes and gave up 1,245 yards. That's 3.63 yards per carry.

 

An apples-to-apples comparison, total games vs. total games, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 1.08 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

A second apples-to-apples comparison, worst game taken out for both, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 0.46 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

 

2014 Nebraska held two opponents under 100 yards rushing.

2015 Nebraska held five opponents under 100 yards rushing.

 

2014 Nebraska held eight opponents under 150 yards rushing.

2015 Nebraska held ten opponents under 150 yards rushing.

 

2014 Nebraska allowed four opponents to rush for 5.0 or more yards per carry. Nebraska was 1-3 in those games.

2015 Nebraska allowed three opponents to rush for 5.0 or more yards per carry. Nebraska was 0-3 in those games.

 

2015 Nebraska faced 107 fewer rush attempts than 2014 Nebraska.

 

The 2014 Wisconsin was weird. Granted, they've always had Bo's number when it came to rushing, but even considering that, it's an aberration. Wisconsin rushed for more yards in that game than Nebraska's previous four opponents, combined. Sparty ran for 188, Northwestern for 117, Rutgers for 143 & Purdue for 124. That's 572 yards on 147 carries, an average of 3.86 YPC. Wisconsin ran for nearly 11 yards per carry.

 

 

 

These two defenses were very different animals. The recipe to beat 2014 Nebraska was to attack the edge in the run game. The recipe to beat 2015 Nebraska was to throw the ball. Very different defenses, very different plans of attack faced by each.

 

 

 

 

EDIT - there's some inaccuracy in these numbers. I must have keyed them in incorrectly, so my apologies. Mav has what appears to be more accurate numbers in this post below:

http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/78018-collins-declares-for-nfl/page-2&do=findComment&comment=1659303

Edited January 8, 2016 by knapplc

[cm husker]

 

 

 

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Nebraska DL gave up almost 900 less yards in 2015 compared to 2014. Take away Melvin Gordon's big day and you are still in the 450-500 yard difference range.

 

You can't take all 400 from Gordon, but say he goes for 150. That's ~650 yard difference.

 

If the players managed that because they don't get along with Hughes, then so be it. I hope next years starters hate his guts.

 

 

 

I just want it noted that I have never been one to argue that this guy is a "Coach XYZ" guy and that guy didn't buy in. I think the DL gave great effort this year and their results are a whole combination of things, including coaching (both current and former).

 

About 99% of the time these "buy in" rumors are started by apologists and/or radio talking heads who are hunting ratings. That's why guys like Benning use innuendo and the "I've got a secret" game instead of coming out and reporting like real journalists. (another note: I like Benning when he sticks to the on the field analysis of X&O's, but he's been straying too much... that's why I really like Foreman and RZ, even though I don't always agree with them.)

[cm husker]

 

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Neither proving nor disproving this allegation about Wisconsin, I looked at the numbers. If this exercise proved anything, it's that putting numbers into a spreadsheet is always entertaining.

 

...

 

These two defenses were very different animals. The recipe to beat 2014 Nebraska was to attack the edge in the run game. The recipe to beat 2015 Nebraska was to throw the ball. Very different defenses, very different plans of attack faced by each.

 

 

Thank you for taking the time to break it down. Those are some interesting numbers.

 

In either event, I do think that the run defense was better this year, for a few different reasons, but I don't think the improvement was as drastic as might initially appear.

 

To a more general point, your break down reveals an interesting thing about these 1 through 116 rankings, whether they be in stats or in recruiting. In these ratings, a single or couple of bad games can send you plummeting down the charts even though your unit may actually be better than the ranking belies. The same applies in recruiting, where a couple of 5 star and 4 star recruits can send a team shooting up the rankings relative to other teams. Now, we all know that those kids can easily wash out (see the Stevenson thread that's bouncing on the board right now), yet the coach who lands a couple of 4+ star players and finishes say 20th on Rivals has definitely landed a better class than a staff finishing at 35? I'm not buying it.

That's why 1 to 116 rankings create a false sense of separation and should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism.

[Enhance]

Statistics give you a basis for predicting how a team is going to perform. Sometimes, even teams that do something really well, statistically speaking, end up doing poorly against certain opponents. One thing I remember about the Wisconsin game in 2014 wasn't just that the defense couldn't figure out how to stop Gordon, but, the offense also sputtered and kept sending the defense out, giving Wisconsin more possessions.

 

My favorite time to break down stats is at the end of the season when you have 13-14 weeks of data to look at. It gives you the best possible data for analyzing a team and their performance, but, it doesn't always tell the whole story.

[Bowfin]

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, so what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

[BigRedBuster]

Statistics give you a basis for predicting how a team is going to perform. Sometimes, even teams that do something really well, statistically speaking, end up doing poorly against certain opponents. One thing I remember about the Wisconsin game in 2014 wasn't just that the defense couldn't figure out how to stop Gordon, but, the offense also sputtered and kept sending the defense out, giving Wisconsin more possessions.

 

My favorite time to break down stats is at the end of the season when you have 13-14 weeks of data to look at. It gives you the best possible data for analyzing a team and their performance, but, it doesn't always tell the whole story.

The problem with the Wisconsin game was that when Gordon started slashing us, our HC was melting down on the side lines instead of figuring out how to stop him. You know.....that defensive genius we had with the head set.

[BigRedBuster]

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, so what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

 

That record is Hughes's fault?

[ColoradoHusk]

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

 

This!!! Valentine can go pro, prove his worth and get a nice, fat contract in 3-4 years. What is left for him to do at NU? Play and risk another injury on a 8-4 or 9-3 team that doesn't do anything meaningful?

[StPaulHusker]

 

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

 

This!!! Valentine can go pro, prove his worth and get a nice, fat contract in 3-4 years. What is left for him to do at NU? Play and risk another injury on a 8-4 or 9-3 team that doesn't do anything meaningful?

 

He has an opportunity to train for free and improve his draft stock. That might be worth something.

[ColoradoHusk]

 

 

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

 

This!!! Valentine can go pro, prove his worth and get a nice, fat contract in 3-4 years. What is left for him to do at NU? Play and risk another injury on a 8-4 or 9-3 team that doesn't do anything meaningful?

 

He has an opportunity to train for free and improve his draft stock. That might be worth something.

 

Improving a draft stock doesn't mean too much any more with the current rookie contracts. His training might be free, but it would be part-time. He would be able to focus on training full-time and team interview for the next 4 months.

[StPaulHusker]

 

 

 

 

We went from #77 in the country in rush defense with a 4.7 yard average and 23 TDs to #7 rush defense with 3.7 yard average and 17 TDs.

 

6-7 vs. 9-4

Nobody should be happy or satisfied by being on a losing team. I don't know if Valentine is unhappy with his coach, and if he is, why, but lack of success always breeds discontent and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" talk and thinking.

 

Anyhow, Valentine has a degree in his back pocket, what is left for him here at Nebraska? (from his perspective, not that of a Nebraska fan)

 

This!!! Valentine can go pro, prove his worth and get a nice, fat contract in 3-4 years. What is left for him to do at NU? Play and risk another injury on a 8-4 or 9-3 team that doesn't do anything meaningful?

 

He has an opportunity to train for free and improve his draft stock. That might be worth something.

 

Improving a draft stock doesn't mean too much any more with the current rookie contracts. His training might be free, but it would be part-time. He would be able to focus on training full-time and team interview for the next 4 months.

 

I don't know about that. Abdullah, as a second round pick, signed for about $1 million per season. An undrafted FA gets $435,000. That's a big jump.

[cm husker]

To me, the key question is whether you'd be an undrafted FA or a top 3 rounder.

 

In some ways, it's better to enter the league as a FA, with the flexibility to sign where the fit is right, rather than getting draft by a team that may have just grabbed you because you were the top athlete/prospect left on their late rounds board (but not necessarily a great fit on the depth chart).

 

Also, a RBs considerations are much different than a lineman's. Signing up a 4 year contract at RB (which covers more than the average length of an RB's NFL career) is smart business. For a lineman, you might want to go as a F/A or sign a shorter deal where you can re-up or move sooner for more money after proving your worth after a year or two against NFL competition. For comparison RBs last on average 3.1 years. DL and OL about 4.1.

 

So while signing a 4-year deal worth $4mm is good for AA, it might be better for VV to take an initially lower value and shorter contract (say 2 years for $1mm) and then sign a bigger contract in year 3 (say 4 years at $2m per year).

 

Anyway, it doesn't sound like VV can make a "bad" decision here. So should be interesting to see what he ends up doing.