The General Election

[Red Five]

Very quickly and crudely crunched some numbers to get a projected electoral vote count. I used 538's projected voter share by state for this analysis.

 

Too Close To Call

 

Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that today are too close to call:

 

Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine (1), Minnesota (10), Missouri (10), Nebraska (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), South Carolina (9), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).

 

That's 188 votes left undecided.

 

538 Polls Only:

 

Arizona +1.4

Colorado +9.0

Florida +6.2

Georgia +0.5

Iowa +5.4

Minnesota +10.9

Missouri -1.6

Nevada +6.8

New Hampshire +8.9

North Carolina +5.1

Ohio +5.8

Pennsylvania +9.0

South Carolina -1.3

Virginia +9.7

Wisconsin +12.1

 

Giving Trump 1 from Nebraska and Clinton 1 from Maine, that gets us to 207/145. Giving Clinton the states where she is up by 9 pts gets her to 270 (not including NH at +8.9). So in this scenario, for Trump to win he has to win all of the below plus flip a state where Clinton is ahead by 9+ pts:

 

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Iowa

Missouri

Nevada

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Ohio

South Carolina

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause.

 

Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

 

I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575

 

It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression.

 

The Republican Primaries were exactly like Brexit. A lot of people who voted for how it turned out went....WTF...I didn't think he would win.

 

No, not like that. More like people coming out on online forums and social media virtue-signaling and making it appear as though the lead for Clinton is much larger than it is.

 

Huskerboard is good example of this where the pro-Clinton posts are not only more numerous, but are also +1'd at a much higher rate than pro-Trump posts. Yet in the basic straw pole (straw pole) Clinton only "won" by 2 votes. I expect this disparity to continue to permeate through November and for a lot of people to wake up on November 9 genuinely surprised at what happened.

 

This is a serious question.

 

What possibly are you looking at that makes you think Trump is going to all of a sudden come out and win in November? Heck, he is even dragging down congressional races for the Republicans.

[knapplc]

Essentially, Trump has to win at least 3 states out of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina, whereas Clinton only needs to win at least one of those states.

 

 

As of 8/16/16, here are 538's "Chance of Winning" in those states:

 

Florida - Clinton, 80%

 

Pennsylvania - Clinton, 88%

 

Ohio - Clinton, 78%

 

North Carolina - Clinton, 76%

 

 

And things like this only reinforce my belief that Trump does not want to win this election:

 

Hillary Clinton has been strategically flooding swing state airwaves all summer, while Donald Trump has yet to spend a dollar on television ads. WSJ's Shelby Holliday explains how the advertising battlegrounds are shifting.

 

 

LINK

 

Donald Trump either does not want to win, or he has such a brilliant grasp of electoral politics that he knows he doesn't need to do anything yet to win.

 

It's a long way to Election Day. We'll see.

[BigRedBuster]

 

Giving Trump 1 from Nebraska and Clinton 1 from Maine, that gets us to 207/145. Giving Clinton the states where she is up by 9 pts gets her to 270 (not including NH at +8.9). So in this scenario, for Trump to win he has to win all of the below plus flip a state where Clinton is ahead by 9+ pts:

 

Arizona 43.1%

Florida 19.9%

Georgia 47.2%

Iowa 24.3%

Missouri 58.4%

Nevada 20.3%

New Hampshire 17.3%

North Carolina 24%

Ohio 21.3%

South Carolina 57.3%

 

 

 

I added the percentage chance Trump has of winning these states (per 538).

 

So....of those states that you say he has to win, 538 only gives him an above average chance of winning two of them.

[BigRedBuster]

lol

 

https://twitter.com/ChadMosher/status/766020239293292547​

This is exactly why I can't watch political commentary shows anymore. I would be interested if people would actually come on and talk truthfully about issues. However, it's nothing but spin spin spin even when 99% of the world can see the guy is completely out to lunch. And, they can sit there and say those things with a straight face.

[Red Five]

 

 

Giving Trump 1 from Nebraska and Clinton 1 from Maine, that gets us to 207/145. Giving Clinton the states where she is up by 9 pts gets her to 270 (not including NH at +8.9). So in this scenario, for Trump to win he has to win all of the below plus flip a state where Clinton is ahead by 9+ pts:

 

Arizona 43.1%

Florida 19.9%

Georgia 47.2%

Iowa 24.3%

Missouri 58.4%

Nevada 20.3%

New Hampshire 17.3%

North Carolina 24%

Ohio 21.3%

South Carolina 57.3%

 

 

 

I added the percentage chance Trump has of winning these states (per 538).

 

So....of those states that you say he has to win, 538 only gives him an above average chance of winning two of them.

 

 

Or a 0.0006% chance of winning all of them. Or a 1 in 166,667 event. All of this is at this point in time.

[Danny Bateman]

 

lol

 

https://twitter.com/ChadMosher/status/766020239293292547​

This is exactly why I can't watch political commentary shows anymore. I would be interested if people would actually come on and talk truthfully about issues. However, it's nothing but spin spin spin even when 99% of the world can see the guy is completely out to lunch. And, they can sit there and say those things with a straight face.

 

 

It's Donald Trump's lawyer.

 

Were you expecting a good, honest dude? Haha

[NM11046]

 

 

Giving Trump 1 from Nebraska and Clinton 1 from Maine, that gets us to 207/145. Giving Clinton the states where she is up by 9 pts gets her to 270 (not including NH at +8.9). So in this scenario, for Trump to win he has to win all of the below plus flip a state where Clinton is ahead by 9+ pts:

 

Arizona 43.1%

Florida 19.9%

Georgia 47.2%

Iowa 24.3%

Missouri 58.4%

Nevada 20.3%

New Hampshire 17.3%

North Carolina 24%

Ohio 21.3%

South Carolina 57.3%

 

 

 

I added the percentage chance Trump has of winning these states (per 538).

 

So....of those states that you say he has to win, 538 only gives him an above average chance of winning two of them.

 

WTF Missouri?

[AR Husker Fan]

 

 

Giving Trump 1 from Nebraska and Clinton 1 from Maine, that gets us to 207/145. Giving Clinton the states where she is up by 9 pts gets her to 270 (not including NH at +8.9). So in this scenario, for Trump to win he has to win all of the below plus flip a state where Clinton is ahead by 9+ pts:

 

Arizona 43.1%

Florida 19.9%

Georgia 47.2%

Iowa 24.3%

Missouri 58.4%

Nevada 20.3%

New Hampshire 17.3%

North Carolina 24%

Ohio 21.3%

South Carolina 57.3%

 

I added the percentage chance Trump has of winning these states (per 538).

 

So....of those states that you say he has to win, 538 only gives him an above average chance of winning two of them.

 

WTF Missouri?

 

Meth - it addles the brain...

[knapplc]

[BigRedBuster]

Aaaahhhhh.....I get it now.

 

It is a grand scheme to get Hillary elected. Trump wins the primaries and proceeds to totally tank the general election by saying and doing the dumbest things he can think of. He also doesn't help himself by actually spending money on advertising. He has his daughter launder money through an online Jewelry retailer so they can still donate to Hillary.

 

Well.....it's that or she actually realizes her dad is a total dip wad and she doesn't want him to win either.

[zoogs]

That's kind of a low grade move by that company, isn't it? Shouldn't you be able to have some expectation of privacy, and not have some exec looking at your name and going, "hey, let's turn this transaction into a PR opportunity with a side of shade-throwing"?

I mean, here's a company doing fundraising right: Cards Against Humanity's 'America Votes' card packs.

Today, we’re letting America choose between two new expansion packs about either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

At the end of this promotion, Cards Against Humanity will tally up the sales of both packs, and depending on which pack gets more support, we will donate all the money in support of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

[Danny Bateman]

I'm dying.

 

 

[HuskerNation1]

 

 

I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause.

 

Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

 

I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575

 

I think you are being very mislead by the "4-6 point race". Trump now has roughly about an 13% chance of winning.

 

 

Something catastrophic would have to happen to the Clinton campaign.

 

 

That is if you put all your stock in what Nate Silver is projecting. Also, if this election were held today, Trump would lose hands down. At this point in 1988 Dukakis was beating Bush Sr by 15 points. I think this race is far too fluid to be calling it now. The LA Times poll is back down to a 1 point lead for Hillary, and I project by tomorrow Trump will be tied or have taken the lead in that poll. The Reuters poll has the race back at 4 points, the Pew poll has it also at 4 points, and the Rasmussen poll is at 2 points. The fact that the polls continue to be fluid in the margins show that voters have not made up their minds yet.

[BigRedBuster]

Hey....I've said, if something freakishly major happens, he could still win.

 

You just acted like you already knew that was going to happen. Chances are, it's not going to.