Coup d'état

[NM11046]

So I've decided to learn a bit about these historical moves. There are so many smart (and opinionated) people on this board, I figured I'd put it out to the group.

 

Admittedly, I don't know much at this point historically, but I'm starting to be concerned that our system of checks and balances may not work with our current situation - is a forceable change of government something that can happen in today's democratic world? In the US?

 

I didn't live through the 60's so the aggressive crane climbing, banner flying, ACLU suing the POTUS and all that's happening in the last month or so (and the last 4 days in particular) I feel we're in a different, in an unrecognizable time. Was it like this in the 60's? Vietnam? Civil Rights? Nixon?

 

How long can the level of animosity go on? What happens if/when the GOP continues to bend and be bullied by this POTUS? Who can you see leading a charge? Will it be a government official (a la Elizabeth Warren) or somebody we don't yet know?

 

Or do we see the 4th article of the 25th enacted?

 

[Moiraine]

I feel like it's Trump? If he stays past 8 years it's him. If he effs with the voting process in 2020 it's him.

 

If there was a coup against him whoever led it would probably let the power go to their head and think they don't have to step down either.

[knapplc]

I think a coup is exceedingly unlikely in America. The apparatus that controls America is too vast, relies on too many complex systems, for control to be wrested away by force or swift manipulation. You'd have to have a large conspiracy involving Congress, the military, someone or some people close to the President, like hundreds of points of control all taken at once or nearly instantly. It would be a logistics nightmare, and the secrecy required in today's age of spying isn't feasible.

 

I don't think we have to worry about a coup. An impeachment process would be more realistic, but even if Trump was impeached (a distinct possibility), I don't see him resigning.

 

Honestly, it's far more likely that Trump dies in office, either due to ill health or natural causes (he's 70 years old), than any other form of removal.

[Husker Red Til Dead]

There's always Article V of the constitution, it's a safeguard for runaway govt.

[ColoNoCoHusker]

There are very few posters here that can speak firsthand to what it was like in the 1960s. Knap & JJ are in that age demographic; not sure about anyone else...

 

Is a forceable change of government something that can happen in today's democratic world? - US is not a Democracy; there have been massive usurpations of our Republican ideal for a long-time. Historically, democracies & republics are one of the WORST types of government structure to prevent hostile takeovers/dictatorships. Ancient Romans & Greeks saw it first-hand; brief history of Britain points it out pretty clearly. France going from monarchy to republic to empirical monarchy show how difficult it is to avoid moving in that direction.

 

I do not think we would see a banana republic style coup/hostile takeover. However, what is stopping the wholesale usurpation of individual rights? As long as POTUS & Congress work together, the military is kept in check as its oath is first & foremost to uphold the Constitution. Even if Trump & Congress suspended elections, I'm not sure the military would step-in.

 

The only check left is courts who have no functional power, state government agencies which have yet to be wholly compromised (that by the way is easy to change), and individual willingness to "fight back". The direction Trump/GOP going is wholly unprecedented in our history. Before it gets violent, widespread voter & citizen would have to be overcome. For whatever ills the GOP has, I do not see them going that far. For a lot of America, today is not any different for them than a year ago...

 

 

Nonviolent revolutions can any direction on the political spectrum. Potentially right now, there is essentially a nonviolent revolution using the Constitution to implement an historically conservative & noninclusive agenda. Right now, imo, we are in the early stages of a

[Moiraine]

I don't think knapp is that old.

[ColoNoCoHusker]

Neither one is that old. It's more fun to make fun of their age, tho...

[84HuskerLaw]

Coup d etat is generally a sudden take over by a small group (often military participation) of a government whereby the officials within the government are expelled from office by force or even arrested/jailed against their will. Could something like this actually happen in the United States ? Extremely unlikely UNLESS there were some near 'biblical sized' event or catastrophe (think Armageddon like disaster or nuclear or other monstrous attack or some similar triggering precursor.

 

One could argue that the recent usurpation of power by President Obama (using his 'pen and phone' to go around an uncooperative Congress) via unprecedented 'executive orders and other unilateral actions by the executive branch, over a long and sustained period was perhaps suggestive of a coup of very minimal proportions. Failing to follow the normal course of governance via the seperate but co-equal branches of government (Congress writes the laws and the President executes/carries them out faithfully and the SCOTUS watches guard on both to see that each is not exceeding its Constitutionally mandated boundaries and authority) certainly is a concern. However, House has impeachment power and Senate the power to remove from office any President that exceeds his authority. Lately Congress has been unwilling to assert itself for myriad political reasons to control and limit Presidential authority when he has, arguably, gone to far. The SCOTUS failed to contain Presidential authority in some recent cases as well as there have been some justices that have let their own personal political partisanship inappropriately influence their 'judicial' decision making.

 

Coups are not uncommon and in many cases our own government has been a major instigator (from behind the scenes) using the CIA and other covert activities to prompt the ouster of dictators or even elected leaders of governments which the US did not like. Libya and Egypt and others in that part of the world are recent examples. This is not something new for the US or European (Eastern or Western) governbments to be involved in. One can debate all day long the merits and justifications or lack there of for such non-democratic interference. Obama attempted to oust Israel's current Prime Minister (Netanyahu) by meddling in their most recent elections. li

 

The U.S. has no business complaining about the attempted influence in our elections when we do this all the time and play favorites and much more in most elections and other governmental formations and the mesne processes thereof all over the world. One can justify our interference because 'we are the good guys' and that makes it OK for us but nobody else should do so because that would not be lawful internationallly.

 

The greatest danger or risk of collapse of an elected federal government by an elected President and Congress would be with the implosion or collapse of public confidence in our elections and in those duly elected. The recent attempts to deligitamize the Trump Presidency and to cast doubt on his electoral win is the kind of thing which can cause anarchy and breed mass disrespect for the government and the rule of law. When our elected officials and those in the political 'elite' class are untouchable and exempted from following the laws that the rest of society are coerced into following under threat of arrest and prosecution, etc., the disrespect and non-compliance will mushroom out into society at large. The people wil not willingly follow laws that the priveleged few at the top are not obliged to follow. Respect for the rule of law is what keeps our Nation 'united' and our population relatively peaceful and contented and compliant. Rampant law breaking will follow naturally when those in power fail to obey.

 

One example is the common practice that Congress has often followed when enacting laws which apply to all EXCEPT Congress and or the federal bureacracy is not obligated to follow. Two classes of people or more beget dissent and disatisfaction.

 

I believe we are a long way from reaching that point. The Civil War and perhaps brief periods in the late 1700s would be the closest to a collapse of our government. The unrest that played out on the streets of America in the '60s and 70s (civil rights and Vietnam eras) were not unlike the recent events of the BLM and other left wing radicals. In the grand scheme, they are NOT significant really and pose no real threat, except to those localities in which property damage and personal injuries are resulting. MLK's peaceful protests were much more effective in fostering political change in society as a whole.

 

Today's news cycles are short and much more 'info-tainment' than real journalism and reporting of the truth and facts of the situation. Controversy sells and so the mass media is constantly searching for something / anything to blow out of proportion to grab a few more viership ratings points. But as we saw with the election results, most of America has caught on and is no longer being propagandized and unduely influenced with 'news' reporting that lacks real world credibility.

 

Sadly, we saw with the recent election how close a rabid socialist (Sanders) came to actually winning the Dem party nomination and how close Hillary Clinton (a scandal plagued life of skating on both sides of the law) came to winning the Presidency. And the man who defeated her enters office with more than ample controversial policy and other positions. I believe his popularity will grow remarkably as time goes by and the people come to recognize that many of his ideas can be quite beneficial to the country and its citizenry. But time will tell.

 

There is certainly no likelihood of a coup d'etat in the U.S. anytime soon. It appears likely a return to the more typical give and take of executive vs. legislative vs. judical power along the lines of the historical norms within the Constitutional boundaries will be forthcoming. Trump has promsied and appears likely intent to keep his many bold promises to undue many Obama executive actions. This will only return the government and actions thereof to the usual course of things. Congress will pass laws and Trump will sign or veto or not as has always been the case.

 

America has always had plenty of political rancor and the battles between the libs and cons have always been heated. Nothing new really, although the recent rabid dissent of the left has shown some to be more irrational in their reactions that has been the case in a couple decades atleast. In time, this too will subside and the Dems will presumably attempt to reassemble their party assuming they can finally come to grips with the fact that America just is not nearly as liberal and left leaning as they wish. Dems have lost many elections over the past 15 years and are certainly the minority party at the local and state and federal levels. If Trump succeeds (and he has plenty of momentum right now), the Dems are facing a long cold winter of discontent.

[NM11046]

Thank you 84 - I appreciate reading your thoughts on this.

[NM11046]

There are very few posters here that can speak firsthand to what it was like in the 1960s. Knap & JJ are in that age demographic; not sure about anyone else...

 

Is a forceable change of government something that can happen in today's democratic world? - US is not a Democracy; there have been massive usurpations of our Republican ideal for a long-time. Historically, democracies & republics are one of the WORST types of government structure to prevent hostile takeovers/dictatorships. Ancient Romans & Greeks saw it first-hand; brief history of Britain points it out pretty clearly. France going from monarchy to republic to empirical monarchy show how difficult it is to avoid moving in that direction.

 

I do not think we would see a banana republic style coup/hostile takeover. However, what is stopping the wholesale usurpation of individual rights? As long as POTUS & Congress work together, the military is kept in check as its oath is first & foremost to uphold the Constitution. Even if Trump & Congress suspended elections, I'm not sure the military would step-in.

 

The only check left is courts who have no functional power, state government agencies which have yet to be wholly compromised (that by the way is easy to change), and individual willingness to "fight back". The direction Trump/GOP going is wholly unprecedented in our history. Before it gets violent, widespread voter & citizen would have to be overcome. For whatever ills the GOP has, I do not see them going that far. For a lot of America, today is not any different for them than a year ago...

 

 

Nonviolent revolutions can any direction on the political spectrum. Potentially right now, there is essentially a nonviolent revolution using the Constitution to implement an historically conservative & noninclusive agenda. Right now, imo, we are in the early stages of a

[NM11046]

ColoCo you left me hanging!!!! Early stages of ......

[ColoNoCoHusker]

Bad cut & paste job... IIRC...

 

Right now, imo, we are in the early stages of opposition to a "conservative upheaval" from several sectors. There is the cultural (racist/sexist/anti-PC crowd); religious; and financial (big corporations & wealthy). I think a big part of what is happening is latter group is using the first two groups to create a political smokescreen.

 

One thing to keep in mind from the protests of the 1950s & 1960s is that public opinion changed when TV started showing police brutality, little girls outside bombed churches, dogs attacking protestors, etc. I think Trump & co will use disinformation and polarization tactics rather than direct confrontation. Trump's agenda is self-aggrandizing & financial gain; anything outside that is about keeping citizen's too busy "watching the birdy" to prevent selling himself & Fed government to the highest bidder. I think this is where his war on the media is dangerous. It's a delaying tactic and there is no way to put the argument to rest. Classic divide & conquer politics...

 

Don't get me wrong, I think what Trump is doing is formulaic totalitarian. I also think he is a sexist, racist bigot at heart. I just think some of it is calculated to create distractions while he robs the bank. If our citizenry can shake off its apathy, this could get violent. It'll be interesting because I think both the right & left are feeling marginalized right now. If that continues at the current pace, then civil conflict becomes inevitable.

[JJ Husker]

As clarification, I was born in 1963. I'm no expert on that era from firsthand experience other than as witnessed by a very young boy. Kennedy was shot when I was 5 months old. However, I did study Woodstock in depth for a high school project. And as far as I know, counter to the running gag on HB, knapp is a fair amount younger than me. huKSer I believe may be just old enough to actually have experienced some of the 60's.

[zoogs]

knapp only seems ancient because he has the wisdom of a Maia. Yet he was not there at the singing of the Ainur.

[RedDenver]

knapp only seems ancient because he has the wisdom of a Maia. Yet he was not there at the singing of the Ainur.

True, but he does remember the light of Telperion and Laurelin.