What Did We Learn?.....Purdue

[billdozer15]

Just now, brophog said:

 

You're only looking at it from the position it ended up in. He doesn't have that foresight. He has to play the odds. Game data tells us on 3 rd and 6 (an appropriate analogue) teams convert about 40% of the time. Obviously you may have to still get a TD after converting, but that's much better odds than hoping you make two FGs and get a stop.

It was 4th down....

[RedDenver]

Just now, billdozer15 said:

Did you watch the game? We had to stop them anyway after turning it over on 4th down and not scoring a TD. We came away with no points and forced an anemic offense to score a TD to win.

You're ignoring the fact that Riley had to make that decision BEFORE he knew the outcome. So we could have scored instead of giving them the ball back. That's the part you're missing: 2 chances to win vs yours is only 1 chance.

[PaulCrewe]

1 minute ago, RedDenver said:

Really? The defender never looked for the ball and pushed the receiver.

There is no such thing as no face guarding in college, meaning you don’t have to look for the ball.  

 

And pushing or hand jousting cause all receivers(especially the good ones) are pushing off as much as a defender

[RedDenver]

Just now, PaulCrewe said:

There is no such thing as no face guarding in college, meaning you don’t have to look for the ball.  

 

And pushing or hand jousting cause all receivers(especially the good ones) are pushing off as much as a defender

I didn't say he face guarded, which has nothing to do with looking for the ball. The defender didn't look for the ball; therefore, he wasn't making a play on the ball. And he pushed the receiver, which the ref thought didn't interfere with the receiver's ability to catch the ball, but I disagree.

[brophog]

2 minutes ago, billdozer15 said:

It was 4th down....

 

Hence its an "analogue". 3rd and 4th are equivalent enough considering you're turning the ball over either way given the extremely high percentage of punts on 4th down across all game data.

[billdozer15]

2 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

You're only looking at it from the position it ended up in. He doesn't have that foresight. He has to play the odds. Game data tells us on 3 rd and 6 (an appropriate analogue) teams convert about 40% of the time. Obviously you may have to still get a TD after converting, but that's much better odds than hoping you make two FGs and get a stop.

Further, in my coaching opinion I would have kicked the field goal (28yds) rather than getting no points (as we didnt) then kicked off again into the end zone. Leavi g us at the 20 only down 2, rather than on the 20 down by 5 and needing a defensive stop and a full offensive drive. Odds are in my favor.

[billdozer15]

5 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

You're ignoring the fact that Riley had to make that decision BEFORE he knew the outcome. So we could have scored instead of giving them the ball back. That's the part you're missing: 2 chances to win vs yours is only 1 chance.

No, I'm assuming we don't make a 4th and long. I called this prior to going for it. The FG was a given at that range

[Pedro Guerrero]

2 minutes ago, billdozer15 said:

Odds are in my favor.

 

Didn’t they score the TD on the final drive or am I missing something?   

Edited October 29, 2017 by Pedro Guerrero

[ebohnart]

I learned that the thought of losing to Purdue doesn't induce the same bile inducing reaction it used to, and that narrowly beating them and then celebrating makes me feel so, so, so dirty.

[PaulCrewe]

1 minute ago, RedDenver said:

The defender didn't look for the ball; therefore, he wasn't making a play on the ball.

This right here is exactly what face guarding is.  Again perfectly legit in college.  

 

You just like like to see a defender look for the ball so he can attempt to make a play on said ball.

 

And I played DB and coached secondary in college.  Not trying to pull out some almightier than you card, just saying I’m not pulling stuff out of my ass to respond to you

[billdozer15]

14 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

What if we kick the FG and then Purdue picks up a first down and runs out the clock? Then you never gave yourself a chance to win.

 

If you go for it, you've got a chance to win right there without the other team getting the ball. And if you don't get it, then you've still got a chance to win if you can stop the other team.

 

If you kick the FG, you MUST stop the other team, and you only have one chance to win.

We had to stop them and score a TD as it was.....

[brophog]

 

 

6 minutes ago, billdozer15 said:

Leavi g us at the 20 only down 2, rather than on the 20 down by 5

 

None of this is known at the time of the decision. If you can't grasp that fact, there is no reason to have this conversation.

[billdozer15]

4 minutes ago, Pedro Guerrero said:

 

Didn’t they score the TD on the final drive or am I missing something?   

We did, but I'm arguing we didn't need to put ourselves in a situation to HAVE to get a TD....from a team that has trouble scoring.

[KingBlank]

47 minutes ago, The Duke said:

A win is a win. Hip hip hooray!

 

 

Unless you play ranked teams

[RedDenver]

7 minutes ago, PaulCrewe said:

This right here is exactly what face guarding is.  Again perfectly legit in college.  

 

You just like like to see a defender look for the ball so he can attempt to make a play on said ball.

 

And I played DB and coached secondary in college.  Not trying to pull out some almightier than you card, just saying I’m not pulling stuff out of my ass to respond to you

No, face guarding is deliberately blocking the view of the receiver (e.g. putting your hands in his face) and is only a penalty in high school football, and maybe no longer, but definitely not a penalty in college or the NFL.

 

Here's the DPI rule:

Quote

Defensive pass interference is contact beyond the neutral zone by a Team B player whose intent to impede an eligible opponent is obvious and it could prevent the opponent the opportunity of receiving a catchable forward pass. When in question, a legal forward pass is catchable. Defensive pass interference occurs only after a legal forward pass is thrown. (A.R. 7-3-8:VII, VIII, XI and XII): It is not defensive pass interference (A.R. 7-3-8:III) (A.R. 7-3-9:III):

1. When, after the snap, opposing players immediately charge and establish contact with opponents at a point that is within one yard beyond the neutral zone.
2. When two or more eligible players are making a simultaneous and bona fide attempt to reach, catch or bat the pass. Eligible players of either team have equal rights to the ball. (A.R. 7-3-8:IX)
3. When a Team B player legally contacts an opponent before the pass is thrown. (A.R. 7-3-8:III and X)
4. When there is contact by a Team B player that otherwise would be pass interference during a down in which a Team A potential kicker, from scrimmage kick formation, simulates a scrimmage kick by throwing the ball high and deep.

The reason I mention his back is turned is because of exception 2

Edited October 29, 2017 by RedDenver
clarifying