S&P reached a record high in January

[commando]

3 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

Nah, it has more to do with "the global slowdown" that everyone is overreacting about.  News flash:  Companies can not sustain 20 plus percent growth YOY.

fwiw.....the current trade wars are a big cause of the global slowdown

[BigRedBuster]

8 hours ago, Vegas said:

It blows my mind how so many people don't understand how the stock market actually works. As it has always been said regarding the market, what goes up must come down because it obviously can't continue to climb forever or everyone would be filthy rich. The stock market is greatly influenced by consumer confidence. Hints why it skyrocketed right after the 2016 election when Trump was elected POTUS and Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate. So why not take the time to see when the market started to decline right? Ironically the market started to decline right after midterms when the Dems took back the house. But that has to be coincidental right? I find it funny how the left has been silent on this topic over the last couple years, but now that its slipping they come out of the woodwork pointing fingers at Republicans saying"hey, I told you so." It doesn't take a genius to figure out it was going to eventually drop off.

 

 

Ummm....no.  The stock market has been in a slump ever since the orange man started his ill advised trade wars in early February.  The S&P spent a very short period recently above the highs from late January, but that was very short lived and it's not because of the Democrats.  It's because the economy isn't as strong and robust as what has been advertised.  Housing market sucks, construction for residential housing sucks, the ag economy sucks.  

 

The recent drops are mostly because we are in the middle of earnings season and there have been some very disappointing reports.  The most recent was Target.  FAANG stocks have also been very disappointing.

 

Those earnings reports have nothing to do with who won an election.

[RedSavage]

3 minutes ago, commando said:

fwiw.....the current trade wars are a big cause of the global slowdown

You are correct.  A lot of people think there will be some sort of resolution, especially based on Trump's history as a businessman and the way he goes in hard nosed and the like (NAFTA) but that remains to be seen.

[HuskerNBigD]

15 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

Ummm....no.  The stock market has been in a slump ever since the orange man started his ill advised trade wars in early February.  The S&P spent a very short period recently above the highs from late January, but that was very short lived and it's not because of the Democrats.  It's because the economy isn't as strong and robust as what has been advertised.  Housing market sucks, construction for residential housing sucks, the ag economy sucks.  

 

The recent drops are mostly because we are in the middle of earnings season and there have been some very disappointing reports.  The most recent was Target.  FAANG stocks have also been very disappointing.

 

Those earnings reports have nothing to do with who won an election.

So far from the truth, it isn't even funny. This whole post.

[BigRedBuster]

1 minute ago, HuskerNBigD said:

So far from the truth, it isn't even funny. This whole post.

 

 

Are you arguing that the housing market isn't in a slump?

 

Are you arguing that the ag economy isn't in a slump?

 

Are you arguing that the S&P didn't fall sharply in early February when the trade war started?

Are you arguing that the S&P didn't spend a short time above the highs then fell again during earnings season?

 

Are you arguing that FAANG stocks aren't dropping hard and dragging others down with them?

 

Are you arguing that the earnings that have disappointed are because of the Democrats?

[HuskerNBigD]

24 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Well for starters, you should probably define what a short period is.

 

Because the markets spent much of August hoovering around the record highs of February (which were also all time record highs, hard to always have the market just consistently climb) and then spent the entire month of September at all-time levels. For me, that is more than enough time to take some chips off the table.

 

As for corporate earnings, they don't suck. Here's a pretty solid stat for ya: 92% of the S&P companies have reported Q3 earnings, you want to know how many have beat to the upside? 78%. That is pretty damn good. Not only that but the Q3 earnings growth is highest since 2010. Also, the tech selloff is more out of fear than anything else. Amazon and Netflix knocked it out of the park, relative to sell-side estimates. Edit: Don't cover Facebook, but just looked and they beat on bottom line, missing on top, but I still wouldnt say that is terrible. And google absolutely took the cover off the ball: beating on both top and bottom.

 

Economic figures, excluding some cracks in the housing market, have actually been quite strong. Unemployment, both U3 and U6, are at or near all time lows, with wage growth growing the most last quarter since 2009. Consumer confidence is also up, as the GDP for Q3 grew at an initial rate of 3.5%. 

 

Anything else I didn't cover?

 

Oh, wait, if our president could keep off twitter and let the Fed do their job and maybe not collude with Saudi's that would be awesome. He is a major factor for the bear market that WTI and Crude are experiencing.

 

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, HuskerNBigD said:

Well for starters, you should probably define what a short period is.

 

Because the markets spent much of August hoovering around the record highs of February (which were also all time record highs, hard to always have the market just consistently climb) and then spent the entire month of September at all-time levels. For me, that is more than enough time to take some chips off the table.

 

As for corporate earnings, they don't suck. Here's a pretty solid stat for ya: 92% of the S&P companies have reported Q3 earnings, you want to know how many have beat to the upside? 78%. That is pretty damn good. Not only that but the Q3 earnings growth is highest since 2010. Also, the tech selloff is more out of fear than anything else. Amazon and Netflix knocked it out of the park, relative to sell-side estimates. Edit: Don't cover Facebook, but just looked and they beat on bottom line, missing on top, but I still wouldnt say that is terrible. And google absolutely took the cover off the ball: beating on both top and bottom.

 

Economic figures, excluding some cracks in the housing market, have actually been quite strong. Unemployment, both U3 and U6, are at or near all time lows, with wage growth growing the most last quarter since 2009. Consumer confidence is also up, as the GDP for Q3 grew at an initial rate of 3.5%. 

 

Anything else I didn't cover?

 

Oh, wait, if our president could keep off twitter and let the Fed do their job and maybe not collude with Saudi's that would be awesome. He is a major factor for the bear market that WTI and Crude are experiencing.

 

So you admit there are problems in the housing market and you ignored the major issues in the AG economy and you ignored the company reports that precipitated the recent fall on the stock market. Those are two major parts of our economy. 

 

You also ignored the fact that the stupid trade wars is what initially crashed the markets and they have been on pretty shaky ground ever since.  

 

I didn’t say all the reports were negative. I said there have been some disappointing ones and that’s what the markets are reacting to. 

 

Its NOT because the Democrats won the house. That’s the comment I was initially refuting. 

[HuskerNBigD]

54 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So you admit there are problems in the housing market and you ignored the major issues in the AG economy and you ignored the company reports that precipitated the recent fall on the stock market. Those are two major parts of our economy. 

 

You also ignored the fact that the stupid trade wars is what initially crashed the markets and they have been on pretty shaky ground ever since.  

 

I didn’t say all the reports were negative. I said there have been some disappointing ones and that’s what the markets are reacting to. 

 

Its NOT because the Democrats won the house. That’s the comment I was initially refuting. 

It is completely disingenuous to consider Agriculture a major part of the economy. Agriculture accounts for less than 2% of GDP. Less than 2%. You could make the argument that when you include food and related industries it takes you to a whooping 5%, but even then that is minuscule in comparison to other sources of GDP. The main source is consumer spending (~80% contribution to GDP). Consumer confidence just peaked in September, notching an 18 year high. October numbers looked good and preliminary, key word on preliminary, figures for November fell less than expected. Consumer spending was also up in October.This bodes quite well for a strong holiday season where names like TGT will more than likely have strong Q4 earnings. Im up for wagering a friendly bet on the name, if you are so willing.

 

I didn't ignore anything with regards to your comment about company reports, in fact I provided a pretty solid retort, with statistics to back it up. To be honest, I think that is another disingenuous argument, throwing out that some companies have had bad reports? What reports are you even talking about? Quarterly earnings? Well, yeah, every single quarter some companies miss expectations, that's the nature of this game. However, I'd like to reiterate that 80% of companies beat estimates; that figure is well above the 5 year trend. Even more impressive is the fact that companies surprised on the upside by nearly 7%, once again above the 5- and 10-year average. Sales growth at close to 10% y-o-y, which once again would beat expectations and take us to levels last seen in 2010, which would be higher given the fact we were just coming out of a recession. 

 

As for crashing the markets, we've still only had 3 down months this year and are flat for the year. Volatility was also extremely low during the summer was quite low while Europe was trying to figure their S out, granted it has picked up recently. Trade wars are what people clamor to, I get it. It is an easy excuse for corporations to throw out there when they miss earnings. Its the same way when the dollar rises compared to other currencies, they will just blame a stronger USD for poor performance even if they're hedged back against it.

 

I understand what you were refuting and I'd agree that mid-term's aren't the culprit for market declines. I just disagree with the rationale for how you got there!

 

Like I said, would love for Trump to stay of twitter, let the fed do its job and quit giving Saudi's the reach around.

 

 

 

 

[Moiraine]

6 hours ago, HuskerNBigD said:

Consumer confidence just peaked in September, notching an 18 year high.

 

Yep.

 

 

[Vegas]

16 hours ago, commando said:

fwiw.....the current trade wars are a big cause of the global slowdown

Trade wars have been going on long before the market kept on slipping. Try again

[Vegas]

20 hours ago, ZRod said:

The facts do not support your claims.

Funny how you say that but don't point out where I was factually wrong. FAIL

[Vegas]

17 hours ago, commando said:

and the excuses start from the right.

 

it's the dems fault

it was going to happen anyway

 

Never claimed that, but its ignorant to blame it on Trump when clearly the market started slipping after midterms.

[BigRedBuster]

4 hours ago, Vegas said:

Never claimed that, but its ignorant to blame it on Trump when clearly the market started slipping after midterms.

 

Interesting. It’s like you have no recollection of the stock market over the last year. 

 

[BigRedBuster]

18 hours ago, HuskerNBigD said:

It is completely disingenuous to consider Agriculture a major part of the economy. Agriculture accounts for less than 2% of GDP. Less than 2%. You could make the argument that when you include food and related industries it takes you to a whooping 5%, but even then that is minuscule in comparison to other sources of GDP. The main source is consumer spending (~80% contribution to GDP). Consumer confidence just peaked in September, notching an 18 year high. October numbers looked good and preliminary, key word on preliminary, figures for November fell less than expected. Consumer spending was also up in October.This bodes quite well for a strong holiday season where names like TGT will more than likely have strong Q4 earnings. Im up for wagering a friendly bet on the name, if you are so willing.

 

I didn't ignore anything with regards to your comment about company reports, in fact I provided a pretty solid retort, with statistics to back it up. To be honest, I think that is another disingenuous argument, throwing out that some companies have had bad reports? What reports are you even talking about? Quarterly earnings? Well, yeah, every single quarter some companies miss expectations, that's the nature of this game. However, I'd like to reiterate that 80% of companies beat estimates; that figure is well above the 5 year trend. Even more impressive is the fact that companies surprised on the upside by nearly 7%, once again above the 5- and 10-year average. Sales growth at close to 10% y-o-y, which once again would beat expectations and take us to levels last seen in 2010, which would be higher given the fact we were just coming out of a recession. 

 

As for crashing the markets, we've still only had 3 down months this year and are flat for the year. Volatility was also extremely low during the summer was quite low while Europe was trying to figure their S out, granted it has picked up recently. Trade wars are what people clamor to, I get it. It is an easy excuse for corporations to throw out there when they miss earnings. Its the same way when the dollar rises compared to other currencies, they will just blame a stronger USD for poor performance even if they're hedged back against it.

 

I understand what you were refuting and I'd agree that mid-term's aren't the culprit for market declines. I just disagree with the rationale for how you got there!

 

Like I said, would love for Trump to stay of twitter, let the fed do its job and quit giving Saudi's the reach around.

 

 

 

 

Well....one nice thing about the economy is that it’s very unforgiving. We get the pleasure of experiencing what is going to happen. 

 

I see major issues in our economy through my work. I expect those to start showing up more and more as we go through the next year. 

 

I never have refuted cited that unemployment is low. Problem is, this is not a leading indicator of the economy. It’s a lagging indicator. 

[Vegas]

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Interesting. It’s like you have no recollection of the stock market over the last year. 

 

Oh I have a very good recollection on it because I actively trade. The market skyrocketed after the 2016 elections and dropped off right after the 2018 midterms. Prove me wrong.