S&P reached a record high in January

[StPaulHusker]

10 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

Without cheating, who here knows what the average intra-year market decline is?

I think we had to go back to a good economy being based on GDP only again because the market isn't so great right now.  

[HuskerNBigD]

14 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

Without cheating, who here knows what the average intra-year market decline is?

 

14%

 

 

[StPaulHusker]

1 minute ago, HuskerNBigD said:

 

14%

 

 

You think it's that high?  I was thinking around 5

[HuskerNBigD]

1 minute ago, StPaulHusker said:

You think it's that high?  I was thinking around 5

I guess it depends on what time frame were looking at, but over the last ~40 years, the average intra-year decline is around 14%.

 

Prime example of how easy it is to overreact to stretches of under performance or volatility. However, it ends up working out over the long term. Just look at oil. Less than a month ago, sell-side guys were calling for $100 barrel. Then it heads south, next they call for $40. But it is already back above $50 today. 

[LumberJackSker]

32 minutes ago, StPaulHusker said:

 

 

 

Trickle down economics at its finest.

[RedSavage]

15 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Are you asking how much it's down year to date?  That would be just under 2%.

How much does the market (S&P) go down every year, on average?

 

10 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

 

14%

 

 

I knew you would know haha.  This market movement is normal folks.  We've just seen an abnormal lack of volatility for a number of years, until last year.  I can't find the particular numbers I'm looking for atm, showing normal market volatility but will edit and post when I have a chance to find them.

[HuskerNBigD]

Just now, RedSavage said:

How much does the market (S&P) go down every year, on average?

 

I knew you would know haha.  This market movement is normal folks.  We've just seen an abnormal lack of volatility for a number of years until last.  I can't find the particular numbers I'm looking for atm, showing normal market volatility but will edit and post when I have a chance to find them.

 It's my life man. Too many times have I updated PowerPoint slides to incorporate this stat.

[BigRedBuster]

5 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

How much does the market (S&P) go down every year, on average?

 

I knew you would know haha.  This market movement is normal folks.  We've just seen an abnormal lack of volatility for a number of years, until last year.  I can't find the particular numbers I'm looking for atm, showing normal market volatility but will edit and post when I have a chance to find them.

Ahhh...I understand the stat you were asking for now.  I wouldn't have known it the exact answer.  But, I fully understand that the stock market goes up and down.  It's not my job.  But, I invest and watch it enough to know that it fluctuates.

 

My main point (that @HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with...and that's fine) is that I work in a couple different industries where I see things happening in the economy on a national basis.   I'm seeing some cracks in our economy that I'm concerned about....they could end up being major cracks.  HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with me, and that's fine.  The cracks I'm seeing are things that aren't going to show up in government stats, like unemployment and consumer confidence, till later.

 

I was in a discussion just over the weekend with several people in similar type jobs as me.  They all thought we are already starting to see a pull back in the economy.  

 

Like I said, we get the pleasure of seeing what happens over the next 12-24 months.

[ZRod]

20 minutes ago, LumberJackSker said:

Trickle down economics at its finest.

It's not really related to that...

 

This has more to do with a shift in demand. People don't want sedans and small cars. They want trucks and SUVs right now. Ford is making the same move, and Chrysler made the move a few years ago. It's unfortunate that they chose not to retool the plants here in the US for new production, but they could announce that sometime down the road if they chose to create new product.

[RedSavage]

11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Ahhh...I understand the stat you were asking for now.  I wouldn't have known it the exact answer.  But, I fully understand that the stock market goes up and down.  It's not my job.  But, I invest and watch it enough to know that it fluctuates.

 

My main point (that @HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with...and that's fine) is that I work in a couple different industries where I see things happening in the economy on a national basis.   I'm seeing some cracks in our economy that I'm concerned about....they could end up being major cracks.  HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with me, and that's fine.  The cracks I'm seeing are things that aren't going to show up in government stats, like unemployment and consumer confidence, till later.

 

I was in a discussion just over the weekend with several people in similar type jobs as me.  They all thought we are already starting to see a pull back in the economy.  

 

Like I said, we get the pleasure of seeing what happens over the next 12-24 months.

Good because a lot of people haven't been investing for long enough to base their "knowledge" on anything but the second worst downturn (2008) and one of the biggest upturns the market has ever seen(2009-now).

 

I agree that there are some cracks in our economy but @HuskerNBigD is right as well.  Some of the economic fundamentals are the strongest they've been in over 10 years.  3Q GDP was the highest reported since 2014 as an example.  It makes it somewhat frustrating and difficult to invest right now as there are definitely causes for optimism as well as concern.  I am in agreement that this "downturn" is based more on emotion, the media and the orange guy, than fundamentals though.

[HuskerNBigD]

12 minutes ago, ZRod said:

It's not really related to that...

 

This has more to do with a shift in demand. People don't want sedans and small cars. They want trucks and SUVs right now. Ford is making the same move, and Chrysler made the move a few years ago. It's unfortunate that they chose not to retool the plants here in the US for new production, but they could announce that sometime down the road if they chose to create new product.

Agreed, it is 100% about demand.

 

The bold is what worries me the most. These car manufactures are rolling out the SUVs and trucks as the economy is getting long in the tooth. If s#!t hits the fan, this could be the ultimate backfire with regards to corporate strategy. People aren't going to be forking over $60-$90k for Trucks and SUVs. I understand the decision, it is just one that I wouldn't want to have to make.

[BigRedBuster]

10 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

I agree that there are some cracks in our economy but @HuskerNBigD is right as well.  Some of the economic fundamentals are the strongest they've been in over 10 years.  3Q GDP was the highest reported since 2014 as an example.  It makes it somewhat frustrating and difficult to invest right now as there are definitely causes for optimism as well as concern.  I am in agreement that this "downturn" is based more on emotion, the media and the orange guy, than fundamentals though.

 

I'm not arguing against the bolded at all.  The stats in the economy are very strong.

 

 

[HuskerNBigD]

22 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Ahhh...I understand the stat you were asking for now.  I wouldn't have known it the exact answer.  But, I fully understand that the stock market goes up and down.  It's not my job.  But, I invest and watch it enough to know that it fluctuates.

 

My main point (that @HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with...and that's fine) is that I work in a couple different industries where I see things happening in the economy on a national basis.   I'm seeing some cracks in our economy that I'm concerned about....they could end up being major cracks.  HuskerNBigD doesn't agree with me, and that's fine.  The cracks I'm seeing are things that aren't going to show up in government stats, like unemployment and consumer confidence, till later.

 

I was in a discussion just over the weekend with several people in similar type jobs as me.  They all thought we are already starting to see a pull back in the economy.  

 

Like I said, we get the pleasure of seeing what happens over the next 12-24 months.

 

Definitely like the open dialogue, it has been great back and forth. 

 

Would you mind stating what cracks you're seeing, as well as what pull back is worrisome? Also, what sector do you work in?

[ZRod]

5 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

Agreed, it is 100% about demand.

 

The bold is what worries me the most. These car manufactures are rolling out the SUVs and trucks as the economy is getting long in the tooth. If s#!t hits the fan, this could be the ultimate backfire with regards to corporate strategy. People aren't going to be forking over $60-$90k for Trucks and SUVs. I understand the decision, it is just one that I wouldn't want to have to make.

That's the real issue with every automaker, they aren't agile enough. New models you see now were 3 or 4 years in the pipeline before they came to the show rooms. A lot can happen in that time frame. I think most of them are working on implementing hybrid technologies into SUVs and trucks, but like you said, not many people want to pay North of $60k for their vehicle, buit there are plenty who will. We saw a similar trend before Katrina which fed into the bankruptcies during the recession.

[BigRedBuster]

22 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

 

Definitely like the open dialogue, it has been great back and forth. 

 

Would you mind stating what cracks you're seeing, as well as what pull back is worrisome? Also, what sector do you work in?

 

I manage a company that manufactures products that go into (mostly) the residential housing and construction market.  We sell nationally and in some foreign countries.  Our market is really strong from march through mid-July....it then usually is slow until mid August and then picks up going into the fall.  Our industry never came back in August and into the fall.  Now, we all know that housing starts are down somewhat because of interest rates.  However, when that happens, many times we will then see our products selling into the home improvement market.  If people aren't buying new homes, they are fixing up their current ones.  When they aren't doing either.....that concerns me.

 

Florida is a huge market for us.  When the housing market crashed last time, it was the first market that pulled back.  My main customer down there claims about late July his phone completely shut off.  He is hearing the same from other construction pros in Florida.  I'm starting to hear similar type rumblings in other ares of the country.

 

Also, our raw materials are sold heavily into the construction industry, but also into other markets like the auto industry, computer industry, packaging...etc.  We are seeing some major softening in the prices they are selling to us at.  Many times that means their demand is pulling back.  They are acting as though they need people to be buying more.  This tells me it's a wider issue than just the housing market.

 

And...I know you disagree with me and I'm not going to argue the point.  The ag economy stinks.  This ultimately, affects many other industries.  For instance, we have discussed GM switching to making more pickups.  The ag industry is a huge market for them.  Companies like Caterpillar have ag as a major market....etc.  That's a lot of jobs.  All of those cars and equipment are now more expensive because of the stupid tariffs.  Pretty much any retail business in many small towns in America are largely reliant on the ag economy even if they're selling shoes, gas, computers....etc.

 

None of that is going to show up in the stockmarket or in government statistics till months or quarters down the road.  Many people think of the great recession starting in 2008.  We knew it was happening as early as early 2007.