Russia

[commando]

true

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

9 minutes ago, commando said:

she apparently seems to accept the russian annexation of ukraine

Exactly.  Maybe her husband left her because she's spending too much time admiring Putin.

[Undone]

These are some mixed bag thoughts on the factors that the Ukraine war is causing that also dovetail into economic conditions.

 

I think that Americans are not really understanding the economic impacts that the potential energy crisis is going to have globally, I really don't. I'm don't know that I'm really seeing this being reported on the news proportionally to the possible impacts.

 

I see talk of "Atlanta Fed is estimating Q3 GDP at 0.3%" and "Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast is showing Year over Year CPI for September at 8.2% (slightly lower than August’s YoY CPI of 8.3%)"...none of that s*** is going to matter if this war drags out for a long period of time, IMO.

 

About a month-ish ago, Russia claimed that malfunctions to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline's turbine(s) couldn't be repaired due to sanctions & supply chain issues. Personally I think this was a ruse; I think they were intentionally drawing down Europe's reserves in advance of cold weather.

 

Now both Nord Stream 1 & Nord Stream 2 have seemingly been tampered with underwater by someone. This is not good on like a cataclysmic level for innocent people all over Europe. 

 

I ask in earnest: How long can the sanctions really keep going if people start to actually freeze to death in a couple months?

[BigRedBuster]

10 minutes ago, Undone said:

These are some mixed bag thoughts on the factors that the Ukraine war is causing that also dovetail into economic conditions.

 

I think that Americans are not really understanding the economic impacts that the potential energy crisis is going to have globally, I really don't. I'm don't know that I'm really seeing this being reported on the news proportionally to the possible impacts.

 

I see talk of "Atlanta Fed is estimating Q3 GDP at 0.3%" and "Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast is showing Year over Year CPI for September at 8.2% (slightly lower than August’s YoY CPI of 8.3%)"...none of that s*** is going to matter if this war drags out for a long period of time, IMO.

 

About a month-ish ago, Russia claimed that malfunctions to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline's turbine(s) couldn't be repaired due to sanctions & supply chain issues. Personally I think this was a ruse; I think they were intentionally drawing down Europe's reserves in advance of cold weather.

 

Now both Nord Stream 1 & Nord Stream 2 have seemingly been tampered with underwater by someone. This is not good on like a cataclysmic level for innocent people all over Europe. 

 

I ask in earnest: How long can the sanctions really keep going if people start to actually freeze to death in a couple months?

All very valid concerns.  We saw what happened with oil and fuel prices when the invasion initially happened.  Now, they have come down quite a bit.  I think they are actually lower now than prior to the invasion.  But, none of that helps the people in Europe.  

 

I heard on the NPR yesterday that the pipelines were already shut down so, Europe wasn't getting the gas already.

 

I honestly don't know what Europe is going to do.  Hopefully they get something figured out.

 

But, this war does have global economic affects.  And, people need to understand that.

[Undone]

5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I heard on the NPR yesterday that the pipelines were already shut down so, Europe wasn't getting the gas already.

 

Yeah I think this goes back to what I mentioned in that post above. Nord Stream 2 is new and hadn't been functional at all yet to-date, and Nord Stream 1 had been shut down by Russia.

 

But I do think the pretense of the shutdown was bulls*** to begin with. I think Putin was making a tactical move there. There's no way they couldn't have repaired those turbines.

 

Then on the flip side of that, Russia needs that revenue. I can guarantee they want that gas to start flowing. They'll take a huge economic hit if they don't. The relatively obvious question at this point is what will actually drive Putin to pull back and call it quits; how far is he going to go here?

 

Nobody has the answer, but we do know that some regions that rely on natural gas for heat in the winter will be f***** if something doesn't turn around.

[BigRedBuster]

1 minute ago, Undone said:

 

Yeah I think this goes back to what I mentioned in that post above. Nord Stream 2 is new and hadn't been functional at all yet to-date, and Nord Stream 1 had been shut down by Russia.

 

But I do think the pretense of the shutdown was bulls*** to begin with. I think Putin was making a tactical move there. There's no way they couldn't have repaired those turbines.

 

Then on the flip side of that, Russia needs that revenue. I can guarantee they want that gas to start flowing. They'll take a huge economic hit if they don't. The relatively obvious question at this point is what will actually drive Putin to pull back and call it quits; how far is he going to go here?

 

Nobody has the answer, but we do know that some regions that rely on natural gas for heat in the winter will be f***** if something doesn't turn around.

Well, I believe Putin is betting on that Europe will cave once the weather turns cold and they don't have gas.  So, he doesn't give a crap if Europeans freeze.  It helps him strategically.

 

I also don't believe he cares about his own people either.  So, as long as he can continue to try to defeat Ukraine, he doesn't care what suffering his people go through.  

 

It's going to be very interesting to see what happens now that Ukraine has applied for NATO membership.  How is NATO going to respond and then, how does Putin respond.

 

Meanwhile, all of this is affecting every single one of us.

[commando]

FWIW....NATO has a rule against admitting anyone that is in a war.    unless they change that rule Ukraine can't be admitted yet...unless russia calling it a special military action instead of war would make a difference.

[commando]

seems right

 

[Scarlet]

On 9/23/2022 at 8:25 AM, commando said:

the russian referendums have started in occupied areas of Ukraine.    i wonder if the MAGA crowd is going to believe those results?

And here it is

 

 

[commando]

1 minute ago, Scarlet said:

And here it is

 

 

it was so tough to predict that

[commando]

4 hours ago, Scarlet said:

And here it is

 

 

CPAC also

 

 

[commando]

1 hour ago, commando said:

CPAC also

 

 

you know..after reading that again it's even worse then i originally thought.    they called it"Ukrainian-occupied Russian territory".  what a bunch of putin shrills CPAC is.  f#&% them

 

and to top it off...they apparently deleted it now after they showed their true colors.  

[commando]

when they tell you who they are...believe them

 

[commando]

[ZRod]

50 minutes ago, commando said:

you know..after reading that again it's even worse then i originally thought.    they called it"Ukrainian-occupied Russian territory".  what a bunch of putin shrills CPAC is.  f#&% them

 

and to top it off...they apparently deleted it now after they showed their true colors.  

It kind of sounds right though. They're Ukrainian territories and they're occupied by a foreign power. 

50 minutes ago, commando said:

you know..after reading that again it's even worse then i originally thought.    they called it"Ukrainian-occupied Russian territory".  what a bunch of putin shrills CPAC is.  f#&% them

 

and to top it off...they apparently deleted it now after they showed their true colors.  

It kind of sounds right though. They're Ukrainian territories and they're occupied by a foreign power.