2018 NFL Draft

[Mavric]

Here are some better numbers.

 

Still seems to me like those five-star and four-star numbers are kind of low.  Or we shouldn't be so disappointed when a four-star "busts".

 

 

[NUance]

50 minutes ago, Mavric said:

Here are some better numbers.

 

Still seems to me like those five-star and four-star numbers are kind of low.  Or we shouldn't be so disappointed when a four-star "busts".

 

Shouldn't that add up to 100?  

[ColoradoHusk]

11 minutes ago, NUance said:

 

Shouldn't that add up to 100?  

The percentages reflect the percentages of each of those star buckets.  For example, 54.3% of the 5-stars in that 3 year period were drafted.  It's basically saying how well 247Sports is at evaluating the players.

[NUance]

Just now, ColoradoHusk said:

The percentages reflect the percentages of each of those star buckets.  For example, 54.3% of the 5-stars in that 3 year period were drafted.  It's basically saying how well 247Sports is at evaluating the players.

 

Ahhh, That makes sense.  I'm surprised 5* is that high.  A lot of things can happen between high school and the NFL draft.  

[ColoradoHusk]

5 minutes ago, NUance said:

 

Ahhh, That makes sense.  I'm surprised 5* is that high.  A lot of things can happen between high school and the NFL draft.  

Given that there are only 30-35 5-star recruits each season (33 in 2018), it makes sense that over 50% of those guys would get drafted.  It's such a select number of players, that only the top athletes and performers each year are given that 5-star ranking.  Also, NFL teams may end up taking a late flyer on a guy who is known as a great athlete, and that guy may end up being a 4 or 5 star rated guy from high school.

 

For example, the Dallas Cowboys drafted Bo Scarbrough from Alabama in the 7th round this past weekend.  Most would have expected Scarbrough to be drafted higher coming out of high school, as he was a 5-star recruit.  http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/153062/bo-scarbrough  But, just being drafted puts Scarbrough in that 54% figure.

[RedDenver]

I think that expectation/potential bias is similar for the draft as for recruiting stars. I'd be interested in how the recruiting stars breakdown for NFL starters.

[Moiraine]

54 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I think that expectation/potential bias is similar for the draft as for recruiting stars. I'd be interested in how the recruiting stars breakdown for NFL starters.

 

 

In what ways do you think the bias would be similar?

One thing I was thinking of the other day is the team that a player comes from, and UCF popped into my head there too. I think a lot of their draft success is because they got "coached up," but some of it might also be because UCF got a lot of attention this year. Same would be true (every year) for Ohio State and Alabama. The NFL teams may be biased when comparing an Ohio State player to a Minnesota player, even if the Minnesota player is better.

Another complication (that you seen in both recruiting and the draft) is the level of competition the players are going against.

[ColoradoHusk]

10 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

In what ways do you think the bias would be similar?

One thing I was thinking of the other day is the team that a player comes from, and UCF popped into my head there too. I think a lot of their draft success is because they got "coached up," but some of it might also be because UCF got a lot of attention this year. Same would be true (every year) for Ohio State and Alabama. The NFL teams may be biased when comparing an Ohio State player to a Minnesota player, even if the Minnesota player is better.

Another complication (that you seen in both recruiting and the draft) is the level of competition the players are going against.

There is definitely a perception bias with a lot of schools, specifically with SEC schools.  NFL teams tend to draft more SEC players because the SEC players are perceived to be more talented and valuable than other conferences.

[RedDenver]

32 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

In what ways do you think the bias would be similar?

Both the NFL scouts and the college scouts look for similar traits which will tend to bias recruiting rankings and draft rankings towards the same players, but those things may or may not be causal in being a good player. Things that the "experts" rate as important for potential: times for the 40 and agility runs; QB height and arm strength; vertical leap; bench press; etc.

 

So something like who's actually starting in the NFL would be less susceptible to those biases and be more a measure of actual performance.