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Will There be War wt N Korea next 4 years

Will there be a War with N. Korea?  

33 members have voted

  1. 1. Will there be a limited war wt N Korea during the next 4 years?

    • No
      14
    • Yes
      19


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14 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Why not?  

He would have ended the Korean conflict and ended the need for us to keep thousands of troops on a border in Asia.  Why wouldn't we welcome a leader who wanted to normalize relationships and stop threatening our ally?

 

Because that's not been the US position on the Kim family since they claimed power.  Nor has giving up power in a region without being forced to been a tenet of American foreign policy over the past 70 years. 

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12 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Because that's not been the US position on the Kim family since they claimed power.  Nor has giving up power in a region without being forced to been a tenet of American foreign policy over the past 70 years. 

 

Well, we will see.  It still doesn't make sense to me.  However, many times in foreign negotiations with countries who have been cut off from the world...things don't make sense.  None the less, my idea didn't happen so we are dealing with reality now.

 

I don't trust him to the extent that I believe this is somehow a negotiation ploy to get rid of sanctions.  But, I don't believe he wants to get rid of the DMZ and open up his country to the outside world.  He loses power over his people if that happens.

 

If he DOES get rid of the DMZ and open up his country?  I have a new found respect for the little guy.

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22 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Well, we will see.  It still doesn't make sense to me.  However, many times in foreign negotiations with countries who have been cut off from the world...things don't make sense.  None the less, my idea didn't happen so we are dealing with reality now.

 

I don't trust him to the extent that I believe this is somehow a negotiation ploy to get rid of sanctions.  But, I don't believe he wants to get rid of the DMZ and open up his country to the outside world.  He loses power over his people if that happens.

 

If he DOES get rid of the DMZ and open up his country?  I have a new found respect for the little guy.

Keep in mind that NK is terribly backwards and the people live in poverty. Kim is probably smart enough to realize that eventually he's going to get removed from power by his own people unless he starts changing things. I'm not sure how much pressure that puts on him, but over enough time the odds of bad things happening to him increase.

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3 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Keep in mind that NK is terribly backwards and the people live in poverty. Kim is probably smart enough to realize that eventually he's going to get removed from power by his own people unless he starts changing things. I'm not sure how much pressure that puts on him, but over enough time the odds of bad things happening to him increase.

 

And, getting rid of sanctions, allows more food and supplies into the country which improves his people's lives.  They think he's a hero but, they don't realize that their lives could be MUCH better if the country is opened up.  

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1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

And, getting rid of sanctions, allows more food and supplies into the country which improves his people's lives.  They think he's a hero but, they don't realize that their lives could be MUCH better if the country is opened up.  

But Kim still wants power and comfort/wealth, so by negotiating with nukes, he can force the other side to give him what he wants and still be a hero at home.

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The cynical side of me thinks that Kim's newfound goodwill and openness is an elaborate ruse to lure SK and the rest of the world into a false sense of security. 

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5 minutes ago, Fru said:

The cynical side of me thinks that Kim's newfound goodwill and openness is an elaborate ruse to lure SK and the rest of the world into a false sense of security. 

 

OK, but to do what? He has maybe ten missiles that he can equip with nukes to hit specific targets - and that's being super generous.

 

He has an aging military with next to no capability to sustain a protracted war. He certainly cannot defeat the combined SK/US ground forces on the southern half of his own peninsula. 

 

So even if we get lulled into his trap, what's he going to do?  Every hot war scenario ends in his ouster from power and likely his death. 

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kim thought to himself...trump is crazy enough to actually start a war......i better step off the crazy train before N. korea glows in the dark.

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4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

OK, but to do what? He has maybe ten missiles that he can equip with nukes to hit specific targets - and that's being super generous.

 

He has an aging military with next to no capability to sustain a protracted war. He certainly cannot defeat the combined SK/US ground forces on the southern half of his own peninsula. 

 

So even if we get lulled into his trap, what's he going to do?  Every hot war scenario ends in his ouster from power and likely his death. 

The long history of this relationship has the NK leader threatening the outside world, going to the table and saying...OK....I'll stop if you get rid of sanctions and give us food and aid that the people need.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

OK, but to do what? He has maybe ten missiles that he can equip with nukes to hit specific targets - and that's being super generous.

 

He has an aging military with next to no capability to sustain a protracted war. He certainly cannot defeat the combined SK/US ground forces on the southern half of his own peninsula. 

 

So even if we get lulled into his trap, what's he going to do?  Every hot war scenario ends in his ouster from power and likely his death. 

 

To do what? I'm not sure exactly. I was just expressing a gut feeling. 

 

Should there be any act of aggression, he would undoubtedly be decimated... But that doesn't mean he thinks that, he may feel completely confident. 

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Just now, BigRedBuster said:

The long history of this relationship has the NK leader threatening the outside world, going to the table and saying...OK....I'll stop if you get rid of sanctions and give us food and aid that the people need.

 

 

 

Yes, which is why I considered a "yes" vote in the poll absurd. It's not going to happen from NK's side.

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16 minutes ago, commando said:

kim thought to himself...trump is crazy enough to actually start a war......i better step off the crazy train before N. korea glows in the dark.

He's seen Trump play chicken and wants no part. Trump seems to have no issue kareening into his opponent with no concern for repercussions.

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This "great development" that we're hearing about is no different than similar announcements from North Korea.  Here's a convenient timeline from CNN:

 

 

Quote

 

Here is a look at North Korea's nuclear capabilities and the history of its weapons program.

1985
North Korea signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
1993
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demands that inspectors be given access to two nuclear waste storage sites. In response, North Korea threatens to quit the NPT but eventually opts to continue participating in the treaty.
1994
North Korea and the United States sign an agreement. North Korea pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle its old, graphite-moderated nuclear reactors in exchange for international aid to build two new light-water nuclear reactors.
2002
January 29 - US President George W. Bush labels North Korea, Iran and Iraq an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. "By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger," he says.
October - The Bush Administration reveals that North Korea has admitted operating a secret nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1994 agreement.
2003
January 10 - North Korea withdraws from the NPT.
February - The United States confirms North Korea has reactivated a five-megawatt nuclear reactor at its Yongbyon facility, capable of producing plutonium for weapons.
April - Declares it has nuclear weapons.
2005
North Korea tentatively agrees to give up its entire nuclear program, including weapons. In exchange, the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea say they will provide energy assistance to North Korea, as well as promote economic cooperation.
2006
July - After North Korea test fires long range missiles, the UN Security Council passes a resolution demanding that North Korea suspend the program.
October - North Korea claims to have successfully tested its first nuclear weapon. The test prompts the UN Security Council to impose a broad array of sanctions.
2007
February 13 - North Korea agrees to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for an aid package worth $400 million.
September 30 - At six-party talks in Beijing, North Korea signs an agreement stating it will begin disabling its nuclear weapons facilities.
December 31 - North Korea misses the deadline to disable its weapons facilities.
December - Six-party talks are held in Beijing. The talks break down over North Korea's refusal to allow international inspectors unfettered access to suspected nuclear sites.
June 12 - The UN Security Council condemns the nuclear test and imposes new sanctions.
2011
October 24-25 - US officials meet with a North Korean delegation in Geneva, Switzerland, in an effort to restart the six-party nuclear arms talks that broke down in 2008.
2013
January 24 - North Korea's National Defense Commission says it will continue nuclear testing and long-range rocket launches in defiance of the United States. The tests and launches will feed into an "upcoming all-out action" targeting the United States, "the sworn enemy of the Korean people," the commission says.
February 12 - Conducts third nuclear test. This is the first nuclear test carried out under Kim Jong Un. Three weeks later, the United Nations orders additional sanctions in protest.
2014
March 30-31 - North Korea warns that it is prepping another nuclear test. The following day, the hostility escalates when the country fires hundreds of shells across the sea border with South Korea. In response, South Korea fires about 300 shells into North Korean waters and sends fighter jets to the border.
2015
May 6 - In an exclusive interview with CNN, the deputy director of a North Korean think tank says the country has the missile capability to strike mainland United States and would do so if the United States "forced their hand."
May 20 - North Korea says that it has the ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons, a key step toward building nuclear missiles. A US National Security Council spokesman responds that the United States does not think the North Koreans have that capability.
September 9 - North Korea claims to have detonated a nuclear warhead. According to South Korea's Meteorological Administration, the blast is estimated to have the explosive power of 10 kilotons.
January 8 - During an interview on "Meet the Press," Defense Secretary Ash Carter says that the military will shoot down any North Korean missile fired at the United States or any of its allies.
July 4 - North Korea claims it has conducted its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, that can "reach anywhere in the world."
July 25 - North Korea threatens a nuclear strike on "the heart of the US" if it attempts to remove Kim as Supreme Leader, according to Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
August 7 - North Korea accuses the United States of "trying to drive the situation of the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war" after the UN Security Council unanimously adopts new sanctions in response to Pyongyang's long-range ballistic missile tests last month.
August 9 - North Korea's military is "examining the operational plan" to strike areas around the US territory of Guam with medium-to-long-range strategic ballistic missiles, state-run news agency KCNA says. The North Korea comments are published one day after President Donald Trump warns Pyongyang that if it continues to threaten the United States, it would face "fire and fury like the world has never seen."
September 3 - North Korea carries out its sixth test of a nuclear weapon, causing a 6.3 magnitude seismic event, as measured by the United States Geological Survey. Pyongyang claims the device is a hydrogen bomb that could be mounted on an intercontinental missile. A nuclear weapons monitoring group describes the weapon as up to eight times stronger than the bomb dropped in Hiroshima in 1945. In response to the test, Trump tweets that North Korea continues to be "very hostile and dangerous to the United States." He goes on the criticize South Korea, claiming that the country is engaging in "talk of appeasement" with its neighbor to the north. He also says that North Korea is "an embarrassment to China," claiming Beijing is having little success reining in the Kim regime.
2018
January 2 - Trump ridicules Kim in a tweet. The president says that he has a larger and more functional nuclear button than the North Korean leader in a post on Twitter, responding to Kim's claim that he has a nuclear button on his desk.
March 6 - South Korea's national security chief Chung Eui-yong says that North Korea has agreed to refrain from nuclear and missile testing while engaging in peace talks. North Korea has also expressed an openness to talk to the United States about abandoning its nuclear program, according to Chung.

 

 

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1. Why does Trump want to meet with the North Korean dicrator? 

 

2. What good will possibly come out of this?

 

3.  Realistically, what chance is there that a brutal dictator is going to yield, or give into, ANY of Trump's (and the US and UN's) demands of his own accord?

 

I have answers that I think, but I hate Trump so I would truly love to hear one of his supporters answer these three questions.  I'm willing to listen and perhaps even change my mind on why I think meeting Un is a really bad idea.

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