Stewie Mandel's Take On Nebraska

[knapplc]

The first question in Stewart Mandel's Mailbag this AM focused on Nebraska:

 

Georgia in '08, Ole Miss in '09. What team this year is most likely to be the "sexy" pick that falls far short of expectations?

-- Jared, Columbus, Ohio

 

A little context: Georgia went 10-3 in '08, Ole Miss 9-4 in '09, and both played in semi-major bowls (Georgia beat Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, Ole Miss lost to Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.) However, because the Dawgs had been touted as a preseason No. 1 team and Ole Miss as high as fifth, their seasons were considered letdowns. Yet, in neither case were people all that "surprised" by their "downfall" because most considered them "overrated" to begin with.

 

The one common thread you'll find in both cases (as with so many other preseason "flops") is that prognosticators got caught up in their impressive bowl performances the prior year (Georgia's Sugar Bowl demolition of Hawaii), Ole Miss' Cotton Bowl upset of 11-1 Texas Tech). Granted, it's much easier to reach that conclusion with the benefit of hindsight, but I can think of at least one soon-to-be preseason top 10 pick coming off what was, at the time, a very uncharacteristic bowl performance: Nebraska.

 

Last we saw the Huskers, they were dismantling Arizona, 33-0, in the Holiday Bowl, to cement their first 10-win season in six years. Heisman finalist Ndamukong Suh led another dominant performance by the nation's seventh-ranked defense. That part was par for the course. Quarterback Zac Lee ran 18 times for 65 yards and threw a 74-yard touchdown. Where on earth did that come from?

 

The 2010 Huskers are undeniably talented. Receiver Niles Paul, defensive linemen Jared Crick and Pierre Allen and cornerback Prince Amukamara are all considered potential high-round NFL prospects, and running back Roy Helu Jr. could work himself into the mix with a big senior year. But anyone predicting Nebraska as a BCS title contender is making two considerable leaps of faith: 1) That the defense will remain at or near last year's level despite losing the nation's most dominant defensive tackle (Suh), and 2) The productive bowl performance from Lee and the offense is a better predictor of things to come than their 13 mostly woeful outings before that.

 

Nebraska's defense will still be very good, but not as relentlessly devastating as the unit that nearly beheaded Colt McCoy in the Big 12 title game. Its offense, best-case, goes from lousy to average. Nebraska plays a couple early "trap" games on the road (at Washington and at K-State) before hosting Texas, and visits A&M late in the year. It's easy to envision a scenario where the Huskers stumble early, rally, but ultimately finish around the same as they did last year -- a good season but not the return to glory many have predicted for this team.

 

Or they could win the national championship, and 500,000 Husker fans will run this columnist come January. But hey, that's the risk you take when trying to predict ahead of time whether a prediction might not come true.

 

Link

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

only 500,000 Husker fans?

 

Okay sound off: one

[HuskersNow]

only 500,000 Husker fans?

 

Okay sound off: one

He's not saying that there are only 500,000 Husker fans, but that that is how many are going to send him mail if the Huskers win it all.

[aholla3]

I am fine with that assesment, I dont really agree with it, but he makes some good points.

 

We are not sure what type of defense we will have without Suh reeking havoc on the offensive line all game. We obviously have talent on that side of the ball, and excellent coaching, but we dont know how dominant we will be without the country's most dominant defensive lineman since Reggie White.

 

We all hope that the offense will look like it did in the Holiday Bowl rather then earlier that year, but its certainly not out of the question to think that our performance against Arizona was a fluke.

 

Now, I think hes wrong, and we will be in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship and possible National Championship if things work out, but I dont think we as Husker fans should be too mad about what Mandel had to say.

[NU41SB]

I agree, this is nothing worth getting riled up about. He does make some good points. Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt. If it happens, then paint me ecstatic. I do believe that we have the talent, coaching, etc. to be contenders in the conference. If it comes down to the CCG to determine whether or not we are in the MNC, I actually am a bit afraid. Only because these kids have taken such a huge leap over the last 2 years, I'm not sure that they would be ready. I would hope that I am wrong, I of course would love to see us in that game, but it is just myself not trying to over expect things I suppose.

[knapplc]

Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt.

 

I should hope that's the tenor of most fans. Anyone expecting us to vie for the MNC after what we saw from our offense last year is heavily into the kool-aid. We need massive improvements to be in contention. It's possible, but I'm guessing one or two losses, and that's without brain cramp games like ISU.

[cuinknk]

That was a well written response by Mandel. I don't agree with his overall assessment, but he at least backed his opinions up. The only thing he didn't really address was the QB situation (he assumed that Lee would be the starter). From reading this board, it doesn't seem like it's a certainty that Lee will be the starter.

[knapplc]

That was a well written response by Mandel. I don't agree with his overall assessment, but he at least backed his opinions up. The only thing he didn't really address was the QB situation (he assumed that Lee would be the starter). From reading this board, it doesn't seem like it's a certainty that Lee will be the starter.

 

Lee will be the starter unless his arm falls off. Aside from one or two guys (neither of which is me), nobody here has any inside info, so don't get too worried about what people here are saying. We're speculating just like most everyone else.

[MrBumstead]

No complaints from me. Those are valid, rational reasons to think this season could fall short of all the top 5-10 predictions people are throwing around. We could seriously have 4 losses and play in the Cotton or Holiday bowl. Or we could go undefeated and win the MNC. That's why preseason polls are mostly terrible. Every college team comes in with major question marks and until we see the teams take the field it's impossible to separate the real contenders from the also-rans.

[cuinknk]

Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt.

 

I should hope that's the tenor of most fans. Anyone expecting us to vie for the MNC after what we saw from our offense last year is heavily into the kool-aid. We need massive improvements to be in contention. It's possible, but I'm guessing one or two losses, and that's without brain cramp games like ISU.

 

The brain cramp game is the biggest wild card for NU. However, I would argue that 8 turnovers is a bigger fluke than NU putting up 33 in the Holiday Bowl. NU will be favored to win every game leading up to October 16. I think most would agree that game is a toss-up, but if they win that one, they would for sure be favored in all of their remaining games.

 

Worse case scenario, IMO, is a 10-2 season (losing to Texas and to an opponent they "should" beat), which would still put NU in the Top Ten at the end of the season (depending on CCG and bowl game results). The ranking seems justified to me.

[Landlord]

One thing I'm waiting to see this season is how the team comes to play early. The last two seasons Pelini has had our boys playing really good football in the second half of the season, and not as good of football through the first 6-7 games. I hope that isn't a trend.

[dubsker]

Fair enough.

[GSG]

One thing I'm waiting to see this season is how the team comes to play early. The last two seasons Pelini has had our boys playing really good football in the second half of the season, and not as good of football through the first 6-7 games. I hope that isn't a trend.

 

 

That mid-October to first part of November seems to our time to go into a slump. Hopefully our "power bracelets" will change all of that

[lilred]

Question: What does the "M" stand for in "MNC"?

[junior4949]

Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt.

 

I should hope that's the tenor of most fans. Anyone expecting us to vie for the MNC after what we saw from our offense last year is heavily into the kool-aid. We need massive improvements to be in contention. It's possible, but I'm guessing one or two losses, and that's without brain cramp games like ISU.

 

The brain cramp game is the biggest wild card for NU. However, I would argue that 8 turnovers is a bigger fluke than NU putting up 33 in the Holiday Bowl. NU will be favored to win every game leading up to October 16. I think most would agree that game is a toss-up, but if they win that one, they would for sure be favored in all of their remaining games.

 

Worse case scenario, IMO, is a 10-2 season (losing to Texas and to an opponent they "should" beat), which would still put NU in the Top Ten at the end of the season (depending on CCG and bowl game results). The ranking seems justified to me.

 

Let's assume we do go 10-2. Texas is the toughest team we play, so it's reasonable we could stay in the top 10. However, Mizzou is likely the second best team we play. If we lose to them, chances are we don't even make the Big 12 Championship Game. If we don't make it to that game, I don't see how we could still be ranked anywhere close to the top 10 at the end of the season.