UPSET SPECIAL!

[The Dude]

Overtime beaches.

[Excel]

I'm worried about Utah State, we play them next week. I didn't realize they were halfway decent.

[Notre Dame Joe]

I'm worried about Utah State, we play them next week. I didn't realize they were halfway decent.

They took then champ but sans Newton Auburn down to the wire. THat was a huge choke last year that they almost repeated.

[krc1995]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

 

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

The thing about point spreads is that they are not set at the expected outcome. They are set at a point designed to make half the money go one way, and half go the other. It seems like the spread is set at lower than the expected outcome, that is, a smaller margin than NU should win by. At least it seems that way to me. If true, this simply means that UCLA fans are more willing to bet on the Bruins despite the seeming low point spread, than NU fans are willing to bet on the Huskers.

I have causally bet football games for years. My dad was some sort of amatuer bookie. He and a friend formed a joint business around the mid 80's to try make a computer program that would take the guess work out of the betting by crunching stats and numbers and whatever else. It was some sort of pre-sagarin thing on those giant computers with the floppy disks and the weird printers that had the big green and white paper. When I took a computer class in high school, I couldn't quite grasp what a spreadsheet was because too me, a spreadsheet was a list of football games with the betting odds. I have no idea why I'm telling you all this because really I'm not very good at it and now I just do for fun., One thing I have noticed is that when the line is materially different then what I think it should be, there may be a reason that I am not aware of or it is an indication that I maybe too emotionally involved(like my hate for ND and LSU). I usually stay from these games as I assume that the betting public knows something about the teams. It will be interesting to see how the Nebraska lines moves through tomorrow. My general betting strategy is that if the line moves in favor of the dog, I will usually take the dog.

Fortunately, in this case the line seems to be moving away from the dog. Started out around 4.5 now at 5.5 or 6. Which still seems low--to me anyway.

 

I will feel good at about the 7.5 spot, but even that is lower then what I originally thought. Otherwise I think we just didn't sell enough potential with last week's win. Which I actually don't understand, so I must be missing something. I don't really think last week's sometimes porous defense was the problem in the eyes of the bettors, because most of them probably just looked at the stats, which looked pretty good on paper. Is it possible that UCLA might be better then I think?

[Notre Dame Joe]

John L Smith delivers another one!

[Excel]

John L Smith delivers another one!

 

Haha I was just about to post about that! Down goes Arky!

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Last week.....BRUTAL! No other way to put it! I did like mizery! Didn't take for my upset though.

 

This week is slim Pickens but so far I'm looking at 4 games for possible top 25 upsets!

 

Stanford over USC

ND over Mich St

Marshall over Ohio

Arky St over Nebraska

[NUance]

Arky St over Nebraska

Oh come on. This upset pick is just plain stupid.

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Arky St over Nebraska

Oh come on. This upset pick is just plain stupid.

give me a reason to think this isn't possible! I don't want it to happen, but like I said, it's a weak schedule for games! Also, it's on my short list. I haven't made my pick yet!

[HuskerShark]

Arky St over Nebraska

Oh come on. This upset pick is just plain stupid.

 

So was UCLA over Nebraska.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Top 25 teams in action this week (pick in bold):

 

#5 Florida State at home against Wake Forest--12:00pm (ET) ESPN

 

#12 Ohio State at home against California--12:00pm(ET) ABC

 

#13 Virginia Tech on the road against Pittsburgh--12:00pm(ET) ESPNU

 

#16 TCU on the road against Kansas--12:00pm(ET) FX

 

#4 Oregon at home against Tennessee Tech--3:00pm(ET) Pac 12 Network

 

#11 Clemson at home against Furman--3:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#1 Alabama on the road against Arkansas--3:30pm(ET) CBS

 

#17 Michigan at home against Massachusetts--3:30pm(ET) BTN

 

#19 Louisville at home against North Carolina--3:30pm(ET) ABC/ESPN2

 

#9 West Virginia at a neutral location against James Madison--4:30pm(ET)

 

#18 Florida on the road against #23 Tennessee--6:00pm(ET) ESPN

 

#8 South Carolina at home against UAB--7:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#15 Kansas State at home against North Texas--7:00pm(ET)

 

#2 USC on the road against #21 Stanford--7:30pm(ET) FOX

 

#7 Georgia at home against Florida Atlantic--7:30pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#3 LSU at home against Idaho--8:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#10 Michigan State at home against #20 Notre Dame--8:00pm(ET) ABC

 

#14 Texas on the road at Ole Miss--9:15pm(ET) ESPN

 

#25 BYU on the road at Utah--10:00pm(ET) ESPN2

 

#22 UCLA at home against Houston--10:30pm(ET)

 

 

So BYU, Alabama, Michigan State are on upset alert.

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Top 25 teams in action this week (pick in bold):

 

#5 Florida State at home against Wake Forest--12:00pm (ET) ESPN

 

#12 Ohio State at home against California--12:00pm(ET) ABC

 

#13 Virginia Tech on the road against Pittsburgh--12:00pm(ET) ESPNU

 

#16 TCU on the road against Kansas--12:00pm(ET) FX

 

#4 Oregon at home against Tennessee Tech--3:00pm(ET) Pac 12 Network

 

#11 Clemson at home against Furman--3:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#1 Alabama on the road against Arkansas--3:30pm(ET) CBS

 

#17 Michigan at home against Massachusetts--3:30pm(ET) BTN

 

#19 Louisville at home against North Carolina--3:30pm(ET) ABC/ESPN2

 

#9 West Virginia at a neutral location against James Madison--4:30pm(ET)

 

#18 Florida on the road against #23 Tennessee--6:00pm(ET) ESPN

 

#8 South Carolina at home against UAB--7:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#15 Kansas State at home against North Texas--7:00pm(ET)

 

#2 USC on the road against #21 Stanford--7:30pm(ET) FOX

 

#7 Georgia at home against Florida Atlantic--7:30pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#3 LSU at home against Idaho--8:00pm(ET) ESPN3

 

#10 Michigan State at home against #20 Notre Dame--8:00pm(ET) ABC

 

#14 Texas on the road at Ole Miss--9:15pm(ET) ESPN

 

#25 BYU on the road at Utah--10:00pm(ET) ESPN2

 

#22 UCLA at home against Houston--10:30pm(ET)

 

 

So BYU, Alabama, Michigan State are on upset alert.

If the bold are your picks then you also have Louisville on upset alert too! Pick one!

[dutch91701]

North Carolina over Louisville

[Comish]

Old Miss over Texas (no Bebee to bail them out here)

[NUance]

give me a reason to think this isn't possible! I don't want it to happen, but like I said, it's a weak schedule for games! Also, it's on my short list. I haven't made my pick yet!

So was UCLA over Nebraska.

 

The UCLA game was on UCLA's home field. NU was a 5 point favorite. By contrast, we face Arky State in Memorial Stadium and we are a 24.5 point favorite. And neither of you guys can see the difference between these two situations? I find that to be very . . .