National Championship

[marko polo]

This is going to sound crazy, but who believes that with enough luck Nebraska could run the table to a CFP playoff berth?

 

Obviously a lot of guys need to get healthy, a few bounces of the game have to go our way, etc.

 

Sports have had parity lately, not saying that Nebraska is anywhere close to as talented as Alabama is right now, but hey, crazier things have happened.

 

Wisconsin has 2 losses in conference, the next game is pretty much a play-in game to the Big Ten title game, and now that Ohio State might not go since Michigan is now in position for a title game berth. If Nebraska slips up to either Wisconsin or Ohio State, but wins one of them, then its automatic berth in the title game, obviously it would be more fortunate to lose to Ohio State so Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over Wisconsin. But even with a loss, and a win over either a 1-loss Ohio State or undefeated Michigan would be easily enough for a playoff berth. Would have to be 12-1 or 13-0 after the B1G title game to get in.

 

Then it would be nice to get matched up with the opposite side of Alabama, cause of course they are going with how ridiculous they have been all year, defending CFP champions. But Ohio State beat them in 2014 in the semifinal, so doesn't really matter where you see Bama, you're gonna see them either way.

 

But of course this is most likely a pipe dream, but in the event of a CFP berth, how do we know this won't be another 2001, where they had good wins but not a signature win against an elite opponent, I would compare this years Alabama close to 2001 Miami, which is arguably the most talented team of all time, not the best TEAM of all time, which obviously goes to the '95 Huskers.

 

So what could happen?

STFU

[NoLongerN]

I am very confident with a bit of luck we could win the NIT!

 

Not a chance against a team like Bama. We are 15 players away at a minimum.

[84HuskerLaw]

I am often accused of drinking the kool-aid or having grand and glorious delusions but really? This guy's kool aid must be spiked with some real positive 'ju ju' juice!

 

When it comes to college sports, it is probably true that nothing is absolutely impossible but Nebraska running the table this year is about as close as it gets to that. Odds are about 2000 to 1 against.

I suggest the best strategy is to give those stinkin' badgers our best shot and hope for a W. Then simply forfeit the reg. season game vs. Ohio State saving a beat up O line and backfield for future games that are much more winnable. A one-loss (by way of forfeiture) Husker team wins the west division and enters the big ten CCG with a snowball's chance in Hawaii in May vs those Buckeyes and something similar vs. those Wolverines. The game being played in the ideal conditions of a dome on relativley neutral turf gives us that slim chance. Now, the playoff invite comes down to this:

1. there are no viable 1 loss teams left to pick in the alternative to NU, and

2. there are members of the selection committee that either love the Huskers and vote them in for that reason OR members selecting us just to have the pure pleasure of watching us get the sheet kicked out of us by whomever we are matched up against. Either way, we might just get picked for the big pig dance.

[Landlord]

 

We would get absolutely curbstomped by Alabama. That's all I know.

Gimme your honest opinion, JW. Who has the best shot to beat them? I'm leaning toward the "no one" answer...

 

 

 

Clemson or Michigan? If anyone. Louisville wouldn't stand a chance imo. OSU still could but they've gotta win out in good fashion to make it into the playoff.

[The Tall Texan]

Dude, I want some of whatever you are ingesting

[Redux]

 

We would get absolutely curbstomped by Alabama. That's all I know.

 

Gimme your honest opinion, JW. Who has the best shot to beat them? I'm leaning toward the "no one" answer...

Washington, Clemson or Michigan

[GBRFAN]

I think we have a:

 

33% chance of beating Wisconsin

25% chance of beating Ohio State

80% chance on the next two

75% chance beating Iowa

25% chance beating Ohio State/Michigan

10% chance in semi finals

2% chance in finals

 

100*0.33*0.25*0.8*0.8*0.75*0.25 = 0.99% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship

*0.1*0.02 = 0.00198% chance of winning the National Championship

Your equation is interesting and does show how difficult it is to win the Big Ten, however pretty flawed in the fact that we could loss 1 and possibly 2 games and still win the BTC game.

[Kiyoat Husker]

 

I think we have a:

 

33% chance of beating Wisconsin

25% chance of beating Ohio State

80% chance on the next two

75% chance beating Iowa

25% chance beating Ohio State/Michigan

10% chance in semi finals

2% chance in finals

 

100*0.33*0.25*0.8*0.8*0.75*0.25 = 0.99% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship

*0.1*0.02 = 0.00198% chance of winning the National Championship

Your equation is interesting and does show how difficult it is to win the Big Ten, however pretty flawed in the fact that we could loss 1 and possibly 2 games and still win the BTC game.

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

Moraine used an assumption that we have to win out.

 

Using her same odds:

 

4% chance of winning the West undefeated, 1% winning the B1G

 

16% chance of winning the West with 1 loss to OSU, 4% winning the B1G

 

winning the west with 2 losses is a little more complicated, because we would need help from the other teams. We would have to look at the odds of Wisconsin losing another game, or Iowa or NW. The odds of us having 2 losses is 48%. The odds of us winning the West with 2 losses would be less. Maybe 20%?

 

Since there are multiple ways to win the B1G West, would you add the probabilities together? (4% + 16% + 20% = 40% chance of winning the West above) I'm not a statistics guy, but I find this interesting.

 

Also, somewhere out there exists actual odds of winning those future games. Anyone know where to find them?

[Kiyoat Husker]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/

 

One Vegas site has us at 40 to 1 odds of winning the CFP. That's 2.1%

[JJ Husker]

I think we have a:

 

33% chance of beating Wisconsin

25% chance of beating Ohio State

80% chance on the next two

75% chance beating Iowa

25% chance beating Ohio State/Michigan

10% chance in semi finals

2% chance in finals

 

100*0.33*0.25*0.8*0.8*0.75*0.25 = 0.99% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship

*0.1*0.02 = 0.00198% chance of winning the National Championship

Wouldn't that be our chance of going undefeated and winning the championship? The odds are a little better of doing it without being undefeated. We can drop a game on the way....just sayin.

 

Edit- sorry, didn't read to the end before posting...

[RunMickeyRun02]

Not me.

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Ok good, I thought this thread was serious!

[Kiyoat Husker]

Found it:

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2016

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-nebraska-advanced-statistical-profile

 

espn's FPI is updatedfor yesterday's games, the SB Nation site is not (as of right now).

 

odds of beating:

 

(team) (FPI) (SBN)

Wisconsin: 31%, 37%

Ohio State: 13%, 18%

Minnesota: 80%, 65%

Maryland: 83%, 79%

Iowa: 51%, 57%

 

Not too far off of Moraine's numbers.

[Huskerfan55]

I have stayed off the board until now but what the hell is this guy smoking - must be good!

[Nebfanatic]

 

 

We would get absolutely curbstomped by Alabama. That's all I know.

 

Gimme your honest opinion, JW. Who has the best shot to beat them? I'm leaning toward the "no one" answer...

Washington, Clemson or Michigan

for me Alabama is the best team, Michigan has the best chance to beat them followed by Ohio State. Clemson has an outside shot if Watson has one of those games. Washington has a slightly worse chance than Clemson but I think Michigan would beat either of those teams.