Moiraine Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, commando said: they will protect trump no matter what mueller finds. Even if the dems sweep every seat in the midterms i am not sure if they have enough votes to impeach trump. I don't think they will. I just hope we still have a democracy (such as it is) in 2020. 1 Link to comment
NM11046 Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 I know you've said it previously Moiraine, but why is it you doubt that D's will win seats in 2018? Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, NM11046 said: I know you've said it previously Moiraine, but why is it you doubt that D's will win seats in 2018? I'm pretty certain the Democrats will make gains in the House, but I doubt they'll win enough seats to get the majority. The odds are against them just based on the # of Democrats up for re-election. But even if they did get the majority in the House, they need 2/3 of the House to vote to impeach Trump. 2020 is the year the Democrats have a chance to make huge gains in both the House (unless gerrymandering gets worse) and Senate. But I fear what Trump could do until then. We know our checks and balances are really weak right now. 1 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, Moiraine said: I'm pretty certain the Democrats will make gains in the House, but I doubt they'll win enough seats to get the majority. The odds are against them just based on the # of Democrats up for re-election. But even if they did get the majority in the House, they need 2/3 of the House to vote to impeach Trump. 2020 is the year the Democrats have a chance to make huge gains in both the House (unless gerrymandering gets worse) and Senate. But I fear what Trump could do until then. We know our checks and balances are really weak right now. They'd need a simple majority in the House to impeach and 2/3 of the Senate to convict him, correct? I agree on the outlook for Congress, though. The map sucks this year for the Senate, but gets a lot better in 2020. Gerrymandering kind of bakes in a pretty decent advantage for the GOP in the House. I'm still hopeful they can at least reclaim the House this year. There's been a significant swing (13.2 points, to be exact) toward the Dems in the special elections that have happened so far. If that holds up nationally, they'd have the margins they need to win the House. The Senate thing sucks, because if they don't beat the odds & take it back, there's always a risk Trump puts more Gorsuch's on the Supreme Court. 1 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Knock me over with a feather. 2 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said: They'd need a simple majority in the House to impeach and 2/3 of the Senate to convict him, correct? I agree on the outlook for Congress, though. The map sucks this year for the Senate, but gets a lot better in 2020. Gerrymandering kind of bakes in a pretty decent advantage for the GOP in the House. I'm still hopeful they can at least reclaim the House this year. There's been a significant swing (13.2 points, to be exact) toward the Dems in the special elections that have happened so far. If that holds up nationally, they'd have the margins they need to win the House. The Senate thing sucks, because if they don't beat the odds & take it back, there's always a risk Trump puts more Gorsuch's on the Supreme Court. Ah ok. I thought it was the other way around. It seems to me the senate might have a slightly smaller % of morons than the House but I'm still not gonna be hopeful about it. I was thinking about this too. The Democrats need to get the senate before Kennedy retires or anyone else retires or dies. The Republicans set a bad precedent with the supreme court by ignoring Obama's nominee. I think the Democrats have to do it to Trump now. I don't know what other choice they have. I think the law should be followed but I would also kind of think they're chumps for following it now after the crap the GOP pulled. Edited March 13, 2018 by Moiraine 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, commando said: I got distracted by some idiot replying that all 435 House seats are up for re-election this year. Link to comment
zoogs Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 54 minutes ago, Moiraine said: I got distracted by some idiot replying that all 435 House seats are up for re-election this year. ...that's true, right? Link to comment
zoogs Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Quote I was thinking about this too. The Democrats need to get the senate before Kennedy retires or anyone else retires or dies. The Republicans set a bad precedent with the supreme court by ignoring Obama's nominee. I think the Democrats have to do it to Trump now. I feel like the only reasonable recourse they have -- should they secure the Senate -- is to demand that Merrick Garland be the next appointment, right a wrong, and call it even. Otherwise, when does this stop? SCOTUS does not serve the whims of the people and there are elections every two years with control of either the Senate, the presidency, or both up for grabs. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, zoogs said: ...that's true, right? Yes. Just making sure you were paying attention. Actually, I'm the idiot. I didn't realize the House elections worked that way and thought they were full of crap Edited March 13, 2018 by Moiraine 2 Link to comment
zoogs Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Moiraine said: Yes. Just making sure you were paying attention. Actually, I'm the idiot. I didn't realize the House elections worked that way and thought they were full of crap That's OK I only realized this recently, too. It made me wonder how Paul Ryan actually holds onto his position. He has a Democratic challenger this year. Come on, Wisconsin, you can do it. If a purple state can't get rid of Trump's enabler in chief in response to his actions over the past two years, when will we ever stand up to Trump? Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) I was just looking at his margin. It was 34% last time. That's in the top 5 for biggest margins. Anyhow, I take back what I've said about Democrats winning the House. They're polling behind slightly but polling can't possibly be accurate right now when the primaries aren't even done. Edited March 13, 2018 by Moiraine Link to comment
zoogs Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 There's a lot more buzz about his challenger this time around -- I hope that's a good sign. And Ryan has to a much larger degree solidified his own position with respect to Trump, giving less cover for people to tell tell themselves this isn't a referendum on Trump himself. Yeah, realizing this in the past year or so has made me more upbeat about the Dems' chances. The generic polling numbers have been so positive, actually, but as one astute observer (https://twitter.com/Noahpinion -- can't find the tweet) noted, never underestimate the chances of Democratic voters feeling like they've already won and then staying home and losing. We have to vote! We can accomplish things by voting! At least we must try -- because as you point out, the size of the margin matters, too. Link to comment
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